NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 250,000 simulations of remaining games
including NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs.
The model used to predict game outcomes includes a predictive version of EPM (omitting injured players),
as well as D&T team ratings.
For more information, including a list of the players being omitted, see the bottom of this page.
To unlock all columns of data, a is required.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, April 30, 10:46 PM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOS
|
East | 64.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
NYK
|
East | 50.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
MIL
|
East | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CLE
|
East | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI
|
East | 47.0 | |||||||||||||||||
IND
|
East | 47.0 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL
|
East | 47.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA
|
East | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI
|
East | 39.0 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL
|
East | 36.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN
|
East | 32.0 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR
|
East | 25.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA
|
East | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS
|
East | 15.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DET
|
East | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC
|
West | 57.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN
|
West | 57.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
MIN
|
West | 56.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC
|
West | 51.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL
|
West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP
|
West | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX
|
West | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAL
|
West | 47.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC
|
West | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW
|
West | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU
|
West | 41.0 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA
|
West | 31.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM
|
West | 27.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAS
|
West | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
POR
|
West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, April 30, 10:46 PM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
BOS
|
East | 100 | 76.0 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 97.2 | ||||||||||||||||
NYK
|
East | 100 | 52.5 | 17.2 | 15.8 | 85.5 | ||||||||||||||||
MIL
|
East | 100 | 8.8 | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
CLE
|
East | 100 | 30.2 | 33.2 | 63.4 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI
|
East | 100 | 14.5 | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||
IND
|
East | 100 | 49.7 | 32.8 | 8.7 | 91.2 | ||||||||||||||||
ORL
|
East | 100 | 18.8 | 17.8 | 36.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA
|
East | 100 | 2.8 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
CHI
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
TOR
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHA
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
DET
|
East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC
|
West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
DEN
|
West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
MIN
|
West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
LAC
|
West | 100 | 22.8 | 29.7 | 52.4 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL
|
West | 100 | 25.8 | 21.8 | 47.6 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP
|
West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
PHX
|
West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
LAL
|
West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
SAC
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
GSW
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
HOU
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAS
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
POR
|
West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Model information in predicting game outcomes
The predictive version of EPM used is based on a statistical/box plus-minus model
(read more about what this means here).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each game given the player's history
and context of the game including opponent strength, home-court, etc.
However, game context is not taken into account for individual stats
if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Game context is still considered for this situation but just at a higher level.
Basically, predictions are slightly better once the official schedule is known.
Injured players omitted from predictive EPM component
ATL
Saddiq Bey, Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson
BKN
Dariq Whitehead, Ben Simmons, Keita Bates-Diop
BOS
Kristaps Porzingis
CHI
Lonzo Ball, Patrick Williams, Zach LaVine
CLE
Dean Wade, Ty Jerome
DEN
Vlatko Cancar
DET
Isaiah Stewart, Quentin Grimes, Stanley Umude, Ausar Thompson
HOU
Steven Adams, Tari Eason
IND
Bennedict Mathurin
LAC
Kawhi Leonard
LAL
Jalen Hood-Schifino
MEM
Ziaire Williams, Ja Morant, Derrick Rose
MIA
Jaime Jaquez, Josh Richardson, Terry Rozier, Jimmy Butler
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo
NYK
Bojan Bogdanovic, Julius Randle
PHI
Robert Covington
POR
Toumani Camara, Robert Williams III
SAC
Kevin Huerter
SAS
Devin Vassell, Charles Bassey, Jeremy Sochan
UTA
Lauri Markkanen
WAS
Bilal Coulibaly