Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Trail Blazers			93	98.9	94	94.1
		Nuggets			75	79.8	94	93.9

Scoring Opportunities

POR

+15

-20

DEN

+19

-12

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.03 51.7%

DEN

0.74 36.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LaMarcus Aldridge F · 6'11" 260 · 29	37.0	20	45%	11	4	0	2	1	4	3	8	4-4	100%	8-19	42%	0-1	0%
Damian Lillard G · 6'2" 200 · 24	35.8	18	60%	8	6	2	0	3	0	0	8	4-5	80%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Wesley Matthews G · 6'5" 220 · 28	33.1	17	57%	5	4	1	0	3	2	2	3	3-4	75%	1-6	17%	4-7	57%
Nicolas Batum F · 6'7" 230 · 26	32.6	7	70%	8	2	0	0	3	2	1	7	1-1	100%	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Robin Lopez C · 7'0" 277 · 27	29.0	6	50%	12	2	1	1	1	1	4	8	4-4	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-

CJ McCollum G · 6'3" 190 · 23	13.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	3	4	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Chris Kaman C · 7'0" 265 · 32	13.0	4	50%	7	0	0	1	3	1	2	5	0-1	0%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Dorell Wright F-G · 6'9" 205 · 29	12.1	8	80%	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Will Barton F-G · 6'6" 190 · 24	11.8	6	60%	2	2	0	0	2	3	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Joel Freeland C-F · 6'10" 225 · 28	8.8	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Thomas Robinson F · 6'10" 237 · 24	3.4	1	25%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Meyers Leonard C · 7'1" 255 · 23	3.4	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Allen Crabbe G-F · 6'6" 215 · 23	3.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Darius Morris G · 6'4" 195 · 24	2.2	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Victor Claver · 6'9" 224 · 26	0.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Diante Garrett G · 6'4" 190 · 26	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Steve Blake G · 6'3" 172 · 35	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	52%	57	21	5	4	20	0	14	43	21-27	78%	21-53	40%	10-23	43%

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Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LaMarcus Aldridge F · 6'11" 260 · 29	37.0	20	45%	11	4	0	2	1	4	3	8	4-4	100%	8-19	42%	0-1	0%
Damian Lillard G · 6'2" 200 · 24	35.8	18	60%	8	6	2	0	3	0	0	8	4-5	80%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Wesley Matthews G · 6'5" 220 · 28	33.1	17	57%	5	4	1	0	3	2	2	3	3-4	75%	1-6	17%	4-7	57%
Nicolas Batum F · 6'7" 230 · 26	32.6	7	70%	8	2	0	0	3	2	1	7	1-1	100%	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Robin Lopez C · 7'0" 277 · 27	29.0	6	50%	12	2	1	1	1	1	4	8	4-4	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-

CJ McCollum G · 6'3" 190 · 23	13.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	3	4	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Chris Kaman C · 7'0" 265 · 32	13.0	4	50%	7	0	0	1	3	1	2	5	0-1	0%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Dorell Wright F-G · 6'9" 205 · 29	12.1	8	80%	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Will Barton F-G · 6'6" 190 · 24	11.8	6	60%	2	2	0	0	2	3	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Joel Freeland C-F · 6'10" 225 · 28	8.8	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Thomas Robinson F · 6'10" 237 · 24	3.4	1	25%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Meyers Leonard C · 7'1" 255 · 23	3.4	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Allen Crabbe G-F · 6'6" 215 · 23	3.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Darius Morris G · 6'4" 195 · 24	2.2	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Victor Claver · 6'9" 224 · 26	0.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Diante Garrett G · 6'4" 190 · 26	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Steve Blake G · 6'3" 172 · 35	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	52%	57	21	5	4	20	0	14	43	21-27	78%	21-53	40%	10-23	43%

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Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Arron Afflalo G · 6'5" 210 · 29	28.3	5	42%	2	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	1-2	50%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Kenneth Faried F · 6'8" 228 · 25	27.2	6	30%	6	1	2	0	3	1	3	3	0-0	-	3-10	30%	0-0	-
Timofey Mozgov C · 7'1" 275 · 28	15.9	6	33%	3	0	0	2	0	5	0	3	0-0	-	3-8	38%	0-1	0%
Danilo Gallinari F · 6'10" 225 · 26	13.9	4	40%	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Nate Robinson G · 5'9" 180 · 30	13.9	4	29%	0	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-2	0%

Randy Foye G · 6'4" 218 · 31	26.2	7	25%	6	5	0	0	2	2	2	4	2-4	50%	1-11	9%	1-1	100%
Wilson Chandler F · 6'9" 225 · 27	25.3	13	72%	3	2	0	0	0	2	1	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
Alonzo Gee F · 6'6" 225 · 27	22.4	7	70%	4	1	4	0	1	3	2	2	1-3	33%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
JJ Hickson C-F · 6'9" 242 · 26	14.9	4	50%	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	2-4	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Darrell Arthur F · 6'9" 235 · 27	12.8	10	45%	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Jusuf Nurkić C · 6'11" 290 · 20	11.9	1	10%	5	0	1	1	1	6	2	3	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	0-0	-
JaVale McGee C · 7'0" 270 · 27	10.5	1	13%	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Erick Green G · 6'4" 185 · 23	5.8	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Quincy Miller F · 6'9" 210 · 22	3.8	2	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jerrelle Benimon · 6'8" 245 · 23	3.8	3	50%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Marcus Williams G · 6'7" 207 · 28	3.4	2	33%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Gary Harris G · 6'4" 210 · 20	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Ty Lawson G · 5'11" 195 · 27	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	75	37%	42	17	8	4	12	0	14	28	13-23	57%	25-73	34%	4-16	25%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	POR	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	POR	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.03 51.7%

DEN

0.74 36.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

POR

50%

DEN

45%

Midrange

POR

34%

DEN

25%

3PT | Effective 3PT

POR

15.0

43%

65%

DEN

6.0

25%

38%

Free Throws

POR

78%

DEN

57%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Trail Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Aldridge	20	45%	10.0 / 22
D. Lillard	18	60%	9.0 / 15
W. Matthews	17	57%	8.5 / 15
D. Wright	8	80%	4.0 / 5
N. Batum	7	70%	3.5 / 5
R. Lopez	6	50%	3.0 / 6
W. Barton	6	60%	3.0 / 5
C. Kaman	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Freeland	3	75%	1.5 / 2
D. Morris	3	75%	1.5 / 2
T. Robinson	1	25%	0.5 / 2
C. McCollum	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
W. Chandler	13	72%	6.5 / 9
D. Arthur	10	45%	5.0 / 11
R. Foye	7	25%	3.5 / 14
A. Gee	7	70%	3.5 / 5
K. Faried	6	30%	3.0 / 10
T. Mozgov	6	33%	3.0 / 9
A. Afflalo	5	42%	2.5 / 6
D. Gallinari	4	40%	2.0 / 5
N. Robinson	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. Hickson	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Benimon	3	50%	1.5 / 3
Q. Miller	2	100%	1.0 / 1
M. Williams	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Nurkić	1	10%	0.5 / 5
J. McGee	1	13%	0.5 / 4
E. Green	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 104.0 20 100.0	POR 98.9 +19.1 DEN 79.8
Pace	22 95.8 12 97.5	POR 94.1 +0.1 DEN 93.9
Avg. Poss. Time	7 15.4 26 14.2	POR 15.3 −0.0 DEN 15.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	5 51.4% 24 47.5%	POR 47.4% +12.6% DEN 34.8%
TO %	26 19.3% 18 18.1%	POR 18.5% DEN 10.8% −7.7%
ORB %	14 26.1% 3 28.5%	POR 33.3% +8.7% DEN 24.6%
FTrt	25 30.6 8 38.3	POR 35.5 +9.7 DEN 25.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	7 66.0% 26 56.2%	POR 67.7% +9.1% DEN 58.6%
STL %	18 8.9% 24 8.0%	POR 5.3% DEN 8.5% +3.2%
BLK %	18 8.2% 23 7.7%	POR 5.5% DEN 7.5% +2.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	3 55.0% 23 50.6%	POR 51.7% +14.9% DEN 36.8%
Rim FG%	10 60.0% 23 56.6%	POR 50.0% +4.5% DEN 45.5%
Mid FG%	13 40.4% 22 38.3%	POR 34.3% +9.3% DEN 25.0%
3P %	6 37.4% 23 32.8%	POR 43.5% +18.5% DEN 25.0%
FT %	4 83.1% 29 68.7%	POR 77.8% +21.3% DEN 56.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 33.1% 9 37.6%	POR 23.7% DEN 37.1% +13.4%
Mid Att. %	22 38.3% 25 41.1%	POR 46.1% DEN 44.9% −1.1%
3P Att. %	16 28.5% 28 21.3%	POR 30.3% +12.3% DEN 18.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	POR	DEN
Possessions	94	94
Possession Minutes	24.0	24.0
Points	93	75
Rebounds	57	42
Assists	21	17
Steals	5	8
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	20 (0)	12 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (1)	14 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	43 (3)	28 (4)
Field Goals	31-76	29-89
At-the-Rim FG	9-18	15-33
Midrange FG	12-35	10-40
2-Point FG	21-53	25-73
3-Point FG	10-23	4-16
Free Throws	21-27	13-23
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg