Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, October 3, 2016

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Nuggets			108	111.3	97	104.4
		Raptors			106	109.3	97	90.6

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+16

-16

TOR

+18

-11

104

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.09 54.5%

TOR

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić F · 6'11" 284 · 22	27.7	12	67%	6	3	0	1	0	3	1	5	3-5	60%	3-6	50%	1-1	100%
Jusuf Nurkić C · 6'11" 290 · 22	23.4	15	63%	10	3	2	2	3	4	4	6	7-7	100%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Emmanuel Mudiay G · 6'3" 200 · 21	23.2	7	32%	7	2	0	0	3	0	2	5	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-5	20%
Danilo Gallinari F · 6'10" 225 · 28	20.8	14	88%	2	2	0	0	3	3	1	1	9-10	90%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Gary Harris G · 6'4" 210 · 22	10.4	6	75%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-

Will Barton F-G · 6'6" 190 · 26	25.6	12	43%	3	5	1	0	2	2	1	2	4-7	57%	4-7	57%	0-4	0%
Kenneth Faried F · 6'8" 228 · 27	20.3	5	36%	5	0	1	0	1	0	2	3	1-4	25%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Jamal Murray G · 6'4" 215 · 20	17.1	9	64%	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	2-4	50%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
Jameer Nelson G · 6'0" 190 · 35	16.1	5	50%	1	4	0	0	1	3	0	1	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Wilson Chandler F · 6'9" 225 · 29	15.7	9	75%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Malik Beasley G · 6'5" 196 · 20	10.1	9	113%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Juancho Hernangomez F · 6'9" 230 · 21	10.1	2	17%	2	3	0	2	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 37	6.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jarnell Stokes F-C · 6'9" 255 · 23	6.2	3	150%	2	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Robbie Hummel F · 6'9" 219 · 28	6.2	0	0%	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Axel Toupane G-F · 6'7" 210 · 24	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
D.J. Kennedy G-F · 6'5" 214 · 27	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Nate Wolters · 6'4" 190 · 25	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
JaKarr Sampson F · 6'9" 207 · 24	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Darrell Arthur #0 · F · 6'9" 235 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	55%	45	24	6	7	16	0	13	32	31-44	70%	28-53	53%	7-23	30%

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Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić F · 6'11" 284 · 22	27.7	12	67%	6	3	0	1	0	3	1	5	3-5	60%	3-6	50%	1-1	100%
Jusuf Nurkić C · 6'11" 290 · 22	23.4	15	63%	10	3	2	2	3	4	4	6	7-7	100%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Emmanuel Mudiay G · 6'3" 200 · 21	23.2	7	32%	7	2	0	0	3	0	2	5	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-5	20%
Danilo Gallinari F · 6'10" 225 · 28	20.8	14	88%	2	2	0	0	3	3	1	1	9-10	90%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Gary Harris G · 6'4" 210 · 22	10.4	6	75%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-

Will Barton F-G · 6'6" 190 · 26	25.6	12	43%	3	5	1	0	2	2	1	2	4-7	57%	4-7	57%	0-4	0%
Kenneth Faried F · 6'8" 228 · 27	20.3	5	36%	5	0	1	0	1	0	2	3	1-4	25%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Jamal Murray G · 6'4" 215 · 20	17.1	9	64%	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	2-4	50%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
Jameer Nelson G · 6'0" 190 · 35	16.1	5	50%	1	4	0	0	1	3	0	1	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Wilson Chandler F · 6'9" 225 · 29	15.7	9	75%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Malik Beasley G · 6'5" 196 · 20	10.1	9	113%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Juancho Hernangomez F · 6'9" 230 · 21	10.1	2	17%	2	3	0	2	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Mike Miller G-F · 6'8" 218 · 37	6.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jarnell Stokes F-C · 6'9" 255 · 23	6.2	3	150%	2	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Robbie Hummel F · 6'9" 219 · 28	6.2	0	0%	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Axel Toupane G-F · 6'7" 210 · 24	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
D.J. Kennedy G-F · 6'5" 214 · 27	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Nate Wolters · 6'4" 190 · 25	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
JaKarr Sampson F · 6'9" 207 · 24	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Darrell Arthur #0 · F · 6'9" 235 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	55%	45	24	6	7	16	0	13	32	31-44	70%	28-53	53%	7-23	30%

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Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Patrick Patterson F · 6'9" 230 · 28	21.5	4	40%	2	1	2	0	0	4	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Jonas Valančiūnas C · 6'11" 265 · 24	18.9	20	63%	9	0	0	1	0	4	5	4	8-8	100%	6-12	50%	0-0	-
Kyle Lowry G · 6'0" 196 · 31	18.4	7	44%	1	1	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
DeMar DeRozan G · 6'6" 220 · 27	16.3	15	54%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	5-6	83%	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Bruno Caboclo F · 6'9" 205 · 21	14.6	0	0%	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-

Pascal Siakam F · 6'8" 245 · 23	21.8	0	0%	5	1	0	1	0	2	3	2	0-0	-	0-6	0%	0-0	-
Norman Powell G · 6'4" 215 · 23	20.0	7	35%	7	0	0	1	2	0	0	7	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-3	33%
Terrence Ross G-F · 6'7" 206 · 26	19.7	23	88%	0	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	4-7	57%
Cory Joseph G · 6'2" 200 · 25	19.0	8	44%	3	4	1	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-1	0%
Lucas Nogueira C · 7'0" 220 · 24	17.1	4	50%	3	0	2	1	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Jakob Poeltl C · 7'0" 253 · 21	13.1	10	71%	6	0	1	0	1	2	4	2	2-3	67%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Fred VanVleet G · 6'0" 197 · 23	12.0	8	80%	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jarrod Uthoff F · 6'9" 220 · 23	\| DNP - Coach's Decision
Delon Wright #55 · G · 6'4" 185 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jared Sullinger #0 · C-F · 6'9" 260 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
DeMarre Carroll #5 · F · 6'8" 215 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	212	106	51%	43	15	10	5	11	0	14	29	21-27	78%	32-68	47%	7-22	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.09 54.5%

TOR

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

64%

TOR

46%

Midrange

DEN

35%

TOR

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

10.5

30%

46%

TOR

10.5

32%

48%

Free Throws

DEN

70%

TOR

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Nurkić	15	63%	7.5 / 12
D. Gallinari	14	88%	7.0 / 8
N. Jokić	12	67%	6.0 / 9
W. Barton	12	43%	6.0 / 14
J. Murray	9	64%	4.5 / 7
W. Chandler	9	75%	4.5 / 6
M. Beasley	9	113%	4.5 / 4
E. Mudiay	7	32%	3.5 / 11
G. Harris	6	75%	3.0 / 4
K. Faried	5	36%	2.5 / 7
J. Nelson	5	50%	2.5 / 5
J. Stokes	3	150%	1.5 / 1
J. Hernangomez	2	17%	1.0 / 6
R. Hummel	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Ross	23	88%	11.5 / 13
J. Valančiūnas	20	63%	10.0 / 16
D. DeRozan	15	54%	7.5 / 14
J. Poeltl	10	71%	5.0 / 7
C. Joseph	8	44%	4.0 / 9
F. VanVleet	8	80%	4.0 / 5
K. Lowry	7	44%	3.5 / 8
N. Powell	7	35%	3.5 / 10
P. Patterson	4	40%	2.0 / 5
L. Nogueira	4	50%	2.0 / 4
B. Caboclo	0	-	0.0 / 1
P. Siakam	0	-	0.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	16 102.3 5 107.5	DEN 111.3 +2.1 TOR 109.3
Pace	14 100.6 31 96.6	DEN 104.4 +13.8 TOR 90.6
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.2 2 15.0	DEN 13.8 −2.1 TOR 15.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	26 47.3% 11 51.1%	DEN 50.7% +3.5% TOR 47.2%
TO %	23 17.4% 5 14.6%	DEN 15.1% TOR 11.3% −3.8%
ORB %	4 29.0% 9 25.6%	DEN 31.0% +0.6% TOR 30.4%
FTrt	6 37.1 17 32.0	DEN 57.9 +27.9 TOR 30.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	14 60.5% 35 45.7%	DEN 68.6% +30.1% TOR 38.5%
STL %	26 7.9% 5 11.5%	DEN 6.2% TOR 10.3% +4.1%
BLK %	25 6.6% 6 9.6%	DEN 10.3% +0.9% TOR 9.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	25 50.8% 12 53.5%	DEN 54.5% +4.0% TOR 50.5%
Rim FG%	27 56.2% 15 58.9%	DEN 63.6% +17.7% TOR 45.9%
Mid FG%	18 37.6% 8 40.8%	DEN 35.0% TOR 48.4% +13.4%
3P %	32 28.3% 15 36.3%	DEN 30.4% TOR 31.8% +1.4%
FT %	21 73.2% 20 73.5%	DEN 70.5% TOR 77.8% +7.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	2 44.7% 9 37.9%	DEN 43.4% +2.3% TOR 41.1%
Mid Att. %	5 26.4% 25 36.9%	DEN 26.3% −8.1% TOR 34.4%
3P Att. %	19 28.9% 33 25.3%	DEN 30.3% +5.8% TOR 24.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	TOR
Possessions	97	97
Possession Minutes	22.3	25.7
Points	108	106
Rebounds	45	43
Assists	24	15
Steals	6	10
Blocks	7	5
Turnovers (Team)	16 (1)	11 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (3)	14 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (3)	29 (4)
Field Goals	35-76	39-90
At-the-Rim FG	21-33	17-37
Midrange FG	7-20	15-31
2-Point FG	28-53	32-68
3-Point FG	7-23	7-22
Free Throws	31-44	21-27
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg