Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, October 5, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Mavericks			99	97.1	102	105.4
		Timberwolves			111	108.8	102	98.8

Scoring Opportunities

DAL

+17

-13

106

MIN

+20

-16

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

0.93 46.7%

MIN

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 21	17.7	1	13%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Luka Dončić #77 · SG · 6'8" 230 · 25	17.0	25	74%	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	4	6-7	86%	5-6	83%	3-8	38%
Grant Williams #3 · SF · 6'7" 236 · 25	16.3	6	43%	2	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-7	29%
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 20	14.5	2	50%	5	0	0	1	0	4	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kyrie Irving #11 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 32	13.9	2	17%	1	2	0	1	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%

Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 21	20.0	13	50%	1	3	1	0	2	3	0	1	4-8	50%	3-6	50%	1-4	25%
Josh Green #8 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 23	18.3	6	50%	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
A.J. Lawson #9 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 23	17.7	9	41%	8	0	1	0	0	0	2	6	2-5	40%	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 32	15.8	5	50%	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 28	13.1	5	50%	3	3	1	0	1	1	0	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	1-1	100%
Greg Brown III #36 · PF · 6'8" 206 · 22	12.4	0	0%	4	0	0	2	1	5	0	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Jordan Walker #16 · PG · 6'5" 195 · 24	12.0	8	50%	0	3	1	0	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Dexter Dennis #38 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 25	12.0	7	58%	3	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Richaun Holmes #20 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 30	9.4	2	100%	2	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Seth Curry #30 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 33	9.1	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Maxi Kleber #42 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 32	7.7	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Joe Wieskamp #37 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 24	6.8	3	150%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Markieff Morris #88 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 34	6.3	3	38%	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	0-2	0%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Mike Miles Jr. #14 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Derrick Jones Jr. #55 · SF · 6'6" 210 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	47%	42	18	11	12	13	25	7	35	17-30	57%	20-46	43%	14-46	30%

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Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 21	17.7	1	13%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Luka Dončić #77 · SG · 6'8" 230 · 25	17.0	25	74%	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	4	6-7	86%	5-6	83%	3-8	38%
Grant Williams #3 · SF · 6'7" 236 · 25	16.3	6	43%	2	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-7	29%
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 20	14.5	2	50%	5	0	0	1	0	4	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kyrie Irving #11 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 32	13.9	2	17%	1	2	0	1	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%

Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 21	20.0	13	50%	1	3	1	0	2	3	0	1	4-8	50%	3-6	50%	1-4	25%
Josh Green #8 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 23	18.3	6	50%	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
A.J. Lawson #9 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 23	17.7	9	41%	8	0	1	0	0	0	2	6	2-5	40%	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 32	15.8	5	50%	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 28	13.1	5	50%	3	3	1	0	1	1	0	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	1-1	100%
Greg Brown III #36 · PF · 6'8" 206 · 22	12.4	0	0%	4	0	0	2	1	5	0	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Jordan Walker #16 · PG · 6'5" 195 · 24	12.0	8	50%	0	3	1	0	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Dexter Dennis #38 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 25	12.0	7	58%	3	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Richaun Holmes #20 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 30	9.4	2	100%	2	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Seth Curry #30 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 33	9.1	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Maxi Kleber #42 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 32	7.7	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Joe Wieskamp #37 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 24	6.8	3	150%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Markieff Morris #88 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 34	6.3	3	38%	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	0-2	0%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Mike Miles Jr. #14 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Derrick Jones Jr. #55 · SF · 6'6" 210 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	47%	42	18	11	12	13	25	7	35	17-30	57%	20-46	43%	14-46	30%

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Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 31	23.4	9	56%	8	0	0	3	0	2	3	5	3-4	75%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #9 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	22.1	11	92%	5	5	0	2	1	1	0	5	2-2	100%	0-0	-	3-5	60%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 23	19.3	9	45%	5	1	0	1	1	3	1	4	4-4	100%	1-5	20%	1-3	33%
Karl-Anthony Towns #32 · PF · 7'0" 248 · 28	17.2	20	59%	4	1	0	2	2	0	1	3	2-3	67%	6-9	67%	2-7	29%
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 36	16.8	5	83%	2	4	3	0	2	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%

Shake Milton #18 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 27	20.1	12	100%	4	1	1	0	2	4	0	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	2-3	67%
Kyle Anderson #1 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 30	18.6	2	20%	1	5	1	1	2	3	0	1	0-2	0%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Troy Brown Jr. #23 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	18.3	6	50%	7	1	0	0	0	3	0	7	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Naz Reid #11 · C · 6'9" 264 · 24	17.5	16	50%	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	5	4-5	80%	6-11	55%	0-3	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #6 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 27	11.7	2	50%	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Luka Garza #55 · C · 6'10" 243 · 25	11.0	12	46%	6	0	0	1	0	2	3	3	0-1	0%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Josh Minott #8 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 21	11.0	0	0%	3	3	0	1	2	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Leonard Miller #33 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 20	10.4	4	50%	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Matt Ryan #37 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 26	10.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle Sprain
Jaylen Clark #0 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon Rupture Rehab
Vít Krejčí #17 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Daishen Nix #12 · PG · 6'3" 226 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	228	111	52%	56	28	7	8	16	20	11	45	16-22	73%	31-60	52%	11-35	31%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	MIN
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	MIN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DAL

0.93 46.7%

MIN

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DAL

52%

MIN

52%

Midrange

DAL

35%

MIN

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DAL

21.0

30%

46%

MIN

16.5

31%

47%

Free Throws

DAL

57%

MIN

73%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	25	74%	12.5 / 17
J. Hardy	13	50%	6.5 / 13
A. Lawson	9	41%	4.5 / 11
J. Walker	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Dennis	7	58%	3.5 / 6
G. Williams	6	43%	3.0 / 7
J. Green	6	50%	3.0 / 6
D. Powell	5	50%	2.5 / 5
D. Exum	5	50%	2.5 / 5
J. Wieskamp	3	150%	1.5 / 1
M. Morris	3	38%	1.5 / 4
D. Lively	2	50%	1.0 / 2
K. Irving	2	17%	1.0 / 6
R. Holmes	2	100%	1.0 / 1
M. Kleber	2	33%	1.0 / 3
O. Prosper	1	13%	0.5 / 4
G. Brown III	0	-	0.0 / 3
S. Curry	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Timberwolves

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Towns	20	59%	10.0 / 17
N. Reid	16	50%	8.0 / 16
S. Milton	12	100%	6.0 / 6
L. Garza	12	46%	6.0 / 13
N. Alexander-Walker	11	92%	5.5 / 6
R. Gobert	9	56%	4.5 / 8
J. McDaniels	9	45%	4.5 / 10
T. Brown Jr.	6	50%	3.0 / 6
M. Conley	5	83%	2.5 / 3
L. Miller	4	50%	2.0 / 4
K. Anderson	2	20%	1.0 / 5
J. McLaughlin	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Minott	0	-	0.0 / 3
M. Ryan	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	22 104.6 2 116.2	DAL 97.1 MIN 108.8 +11.8
Pace	21 103.3 28 101.3	DAL 105.4 +6.7 MIN 98.8
Avg. Poss. Time	24 13.5 2 14.4	DAL 13.7 −0.9 MIN 14.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 49.2% 1 58.0%	DAL 44.6% MIN 50.0% +5.4%
TO %	3 13.3% 22 17.0%	DAL 11.0% −3.0% MIN 14.0%
ORB %	29 20.7% 12 25.4%	DAL 13.5% MIN 23.9% +10.4%
FTrt	23 24.8 29 22.2	DAL 32.6 +9.4 MIN 23.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	26 59.1% 2 71.9%	DAL 52.9% MIN 66.7% +13.8%
STL %	22 8.7% 32 7.2%	DAL 10.8% +3.9% MIN 6.9%
BLK %	7 14.0% 14 12.1%	DAL 20.0% +2.6% MIN 17.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 51.1% 3 58.9%	DAL 46.7% MIN 51.9% +5.2%
Rim FG%	27 58.0% 18 60.5%	DAL 52.2% +0.1% MIN 52.1%
Mid FG%	32 36.1% 14 43.7%	DAL 34.8% MIN 50.0% +15.2%
3P %	19 34.3% 2 40.7%	DAL 30.4% MIN 31.4% +1.0%
FT %	33 67.7% 11 76.5%	DAL 56.7% MIN 72.7% +16.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	33 26.7% 4 40.0%	DAL 25.0% MIN 50.5% +25.5%
Mid Att. %	19 25.9% 1 16.1%	DAL 25.0% MIN 12.6% −12.4%
3P Att. %	8 47.5% 14 43.9%	DAL 50.0% +13.2% MIN 36.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DAL	MIN
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	99	111
Rebounds	42	56
Assists	18	28
Steals	11	7
Blocks	12	8
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	16 (1)
Fouls	25	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (10)	11 (9)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (2)	45 (2)
Field Goals	34-92	42-95
At-the-Rim FG	12-23	25-48
Midrange FG	8-23	6-12
2-Point FG	20-46	31-60
3-Point FG	14-46	11-35
Free Throws	17-30	16-22
Fast Break Pts	10	16
2nd Chance Pts	8	21
Points in Paint	36	60
Pts off Turnovers	16	15
Bench Points	63	57
Biggest Lead	0	29

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg