Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, October 4, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Celtics			107	101.9	105	103.7
		Nuggets			103	99.0	104	105.1

Scoring Opportunities

BOS

+22

-17

110

DEN

+19

-23

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

0.97 48.6%

DEN

1.03 51.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luke Kornet #40 · C · 7'1" 250 · 29	21.2	6	60%	11	3	1	0	1	1	4	7	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Jaylen Brown #7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 28	19.1	8	40%	2	2	1	1	2	3	1	1	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	1-5	20%
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 27	19.1	12	50%	6	5	0	0	2	1	3	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	3-7	43%
Derrick White #9 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 30	19.1	9	45%	1	0	2	1	3	2	0	1	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	1-4	25%
Jrue Holiday #4 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 34	12.0	4	29%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-4	0%

Jordan Walsh #27 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 21	24.7	9	56%	4	4	0	3	0	3	3	1	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Payton Pritchard #11 · SG · 6'1" 195 · 27	24.0	21	70%	4	6	0	0	3	1	1	3	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	6-12	50%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 27	16.9	7	44%	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1-1	100%	0-0	-	2-8	25%
Xavier Tillman #26 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 26	14.8	6	60%	3	1	2	1	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-3	67%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 25	12.9	6	100%	3	0	0	1	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
JD Davison #20 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 22	12.0	7	70%	2	1	2	1	0	2	0	2	4-4	100%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Jaden Springer #44 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 22	11.8	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	2	2	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	7.7	0	0%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Lonnie Walker IV #12 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 26	4.3	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Anton Watson #28 · SF · 6'8" 225 · 24	4.3	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dmytro Skapintsev #41 · C · 7'1" 215 · 26	4.2	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Ron Harper Jr. #51 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 24	0.1	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Al Horford #42 · C · 6'8" 240 · 38	DND - Coaches Decision
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · PF · 7'2" 240 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	228	107	49%	44	29	13	8	17	24	17	27	13-17	76%	17-37	46%	20-61	33%

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Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luke Kornet #40 · C · 7'1" 250 · 29	21.2	6	60%	11	3	1	0	1	1	4	7	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Jaylen Brown #7 · SF · 6'6" 223 · 28	19.1	8	40%	2	2	1	1	2	3	1	1	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	1-5	20%
Jayson Tatum #0 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 27	19.1	12	50%	6	5	0	0	2	1	3	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	3-7	43%
Derrick White #9 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 30	19.1	9	45%	1	0	2	1	3	2	0	1	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	1-4	25%
Jrue Holiday #4 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 34	12.0	4	29%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-4	0%

Jordan Walsh #27 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 21	24.7	9	56%	4	4	0	3	0	3	3	1	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Payton Pritchard #11 · SG · 6'1" 195 · 27	24.0	21	70%	4	6	0	0	3	1	1	3	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	6-12	50%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 27	16.9	7	44%	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1-1	100%	0-0	-	2-8	25%
Xavier Tillman #26 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 26	14.8	6	60%	3	1	2	1	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-3	67%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 25	12.9	6	100%	3	0	0	1	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
JD Davison #20 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 22	12.0	7	70%	2	1	2	1	0	2	0	2	4-4	100%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Jaden Springer #44 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 22	11.8	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	2	2	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	7.7	0	0%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Lonnie Walker IV #12 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 26	4.3	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Anton Watson #28 · SF · 6'8" 225 · 24	4.3	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dmytro Skapintsev #41 · C · 7'1" 215 · 26	4.2	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Ron Harper Jr. #51 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 24	0.1	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Al Horford #42 · C · 6'8" 240 · 38	DND - Coaches Decision
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · PF · 7'2" 240 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	228	107	49%	44	29	13	8	17	24	17	27	13-17	76%	17-37	46%	20-61	33%

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Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	16.7	14	78%	8	2	2	0	1	2	3	5	4-5	80%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	15.3	7	35%	3	3	2	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	15.3	3	38%	1	2	2	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	14.8	12	67%	2	0	1	0	3	1	1	1	1-2	50%	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	13.0	5	50%	5	3	1	1	1	0	1	4	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	22.6	11	61%	2	2	0	1	0	3	0	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	21.0	6	50%	3	1	0	0	4	0	1	2	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	18.5	12	50%	4	8	0	0	2	2	1	3	3-4	75%	0-4	0%	3-6	50%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	18.4	6	60%	3	1	0	0	2	6	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-3	67%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	15.1	3	38%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 30	14.4	5	83%	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	12.0	10	63%	6	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	12.0	2	50%	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 23	4.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Gabe McGlothan #30 · NA · 6'6" 235 · 26	0.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylin Williams #10 · NA · 6'8" 245 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	214	103	52%	49	29	10	2	23	24	12	37	17-26	65%	25-54	46%	12-32	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

BOS

0.97 48.6%

DEN

1.03 51.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

BOS

64%

DEN

51%

Midrange

BOS

20%

DEN

37%

3PT | Effective 3PT

BOS

30.0

33%

49%

DEN

18.0

38%

56%

Free Throws

BOS

76%

DEN

65%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Pritchard	21	70%	10.5 / 15
J. Tatum	12	50%	6.0 / 12
D. White	9	45%	4.5 / 10
J. Walsh	9	56%	4.5 / 8
J. Brown	8	40%	4.0 / 10
S. Hauser	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Davison	7	70%	3.5 / 5
L. Kornet	6	60%	3.0 / 5
X. Tillman	6	60%	3.0 / 5
N. Queta	6	100%	3.0 / 3
J. Holiday	4	29%	2.0 / 7
D. Skapintsev	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Springer	0	-	0.0 / 3
B. Scheierman	0	-	0.0 / 3
L. Walker IV	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	14	78%	7.0 / 9
M. Porter	12	67%	6.0 / 9
R. Westbrook	12	50%	6.0 / 12
J. Strawther	11	61%	5.5 / 9
Z. Nnaji	10	63%	5.0 / 8
A. Gordon	7	35%	3.5 / 10
V. Cancar	6	50%	3.0 / 6
H. Tyson	6	60%	3.0 / 5
C. Braun	5	50%	2.5 / 5
D. Šarić	5	83%	2.5 / 3
J. Murray	3	38%	1.5 / 4
J. Pickett	3	38%	1.5 / 4
D. Jordan	2	50%	1.0 / 2
S. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 120.8 20 105.0	BOS 101.9 +2.9 DEN 99.0
Pace	27 100.8 8 104.2	BOS 103.7 DEN 105.1 +1.4
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.2 21 13.6	BOS 13.9 DEN 13.7 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 55.3% 16 52.4%	BOS 48.0% DEN 50.0% +2.0%
TO %	2 11.3% 27 18.6%	BOS 14.6% −5.2% DEN 19.8%
ORB %	6 28.3% 16 23.3%	BOS 31.5% +0.7% DEN 30.8%
FTrt	26 21.9 1 37.6	BOS 17.3 DEN 30.2 +12.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 69.2% 2 74.7%	BOS 78.4% DEN 78.4%
STL %	12 9.7% 31 6.9%	BOS 12.4% +2.8% DEN 9.6%
BLK %	16 10.7% 31 6.9%	BOS 14.8% +9.4% DEN 5.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.41 and 2.41.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 56.8% 11 55.1%	BOS 48.6% DEN 51.5% +2.9%
Rim FG%	4 67.7% 28 60.0%	BOS 63.6% +12.2% DEN 51.4%
Mid FG%	22 37.5% 8 44.7%	BOS 20.0% DEN 36.8% +16.8%
3P %	5 36.9% 14 33.7%	BOS 32.8% DEN 37.5% +4.7%
FT %	3 80.8% 28 70.1%	BOS 76.5% +11.1% DEN 65.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	26 26.1% 10 34.8%	BOS 22.4% DEN 40.7% +18.2%
Mid Att. %	6 18.5% 20 24.7%	BOS 15.3% −6.8% DEN 22.1%
3P Att. %	2 55.4% 26 40.5%	BOS 62.2% +25.0% DEN 37.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.39 and 2.39.

Game Totals	BOS	DEN
Possessions	105	104
Possession Minutes	24.3	23.7
Points	107	103
Rebounds	44	49
Assists	29	29
Steals	13	10
Blocks	8	2
Turnovers (Team)	17 (1)	23 (1)
Fouls	24	24
Off. Rebounds (Team)	17 (5)	12 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (6)	37 (3)
Field Goals	37-98	37-86
At-the-Rim FG	14-22	18-35
Midrange FG	3-15	7-19
2-Point FG	17-37	25-54
3-Point FG	20-61	12-32
Free Throws	13-17	17-26
Fast Break Pts	12	11
2nd Chance Pts	18	14
Points in Paint	30	50
Pts off Turnovers	27	24
Bench Points	68	62
Biggest Lead	7	12

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg