Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, October 17, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Nuggets			132	120.0	110	110.0
		Timberwolves			126	113.5	111	111.7

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-19

MIN

+19

-20

110

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.35 67.3%

MIN

1.15 57.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	28.6	25	74%	0	5	2	2	3	1	0	0	8-8	100%	1-7	14%	5-6	83%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	28.3	4	33%	7	7	3	1	3	4	1	6	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	27.6	11	69%	6	0	1	1	1	4	1	5	6-8	75%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	24.0	5	28%	4	5	0	1	2	1	1	3	3-6	50%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	23.1	16	80%	8	0	0	0	2	4	1	7	1-2	50%	6-8	75%	1-1	100%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	30.2	33	92%	3	2	0	1	3	3	0	3	12-13	92%	3-5	60%	5-8	63%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	19.6	9	75%	2	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	16.2	13	72%	2	5	0	1	5	3	0	2	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	15.5	13	93%	5	1	1	0	0	4	0	5	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	13.5	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	7.8	3	38%	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	234	132	67%	43	31	8	7	19	28	6	37	37-49	76%	25-47	53%	15-26	58%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	28.6	25	74%	0	5	2	2	3	1	0	0	8-8	100%	1-7	14%	5-6	83%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	28.3	4	33%	7	7	3	1	3	4	1	6	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	27.6	11	69%	6	0	1	1	1	4	1	5	6-8	75%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	24.0	5	28%	4	5	0	1	2	1	1	3	3-6	50%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	23.1	16	80%	8	0	0	0	2	4	1	7	1-2	50%	6-8	75%	1-1	100%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	30.2	33	92%	3	2	0	1	3	3	0	3	12-13	92%	3-5	60%	5-8	63%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	19.6	9	75%	2	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	16.2	13	72%	2	5	0	1	5	3	0	2	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	15.5	13	93%	5	1	1	0	0	4	0	5	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	13.5	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	7.8	3	38%	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	234	132	67%	43	31	8	7	19	28	6	37	37-49	76%	25-47	53%	15-26	58%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Garza #55 · C · 6'10" 243 · 26	32.5	29	73%	9	1	0	0	1	3	5	4	4-6	67%	8-11	73%	3-6	50%
Terrence Shannon Jr. #00 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 24	30.6	9	38%	5	6	1	0	2	1	1	4	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	0-4	0%
Rob Dillingham #4 · PG · 6'2" 175 · 20	25.8	15	54%	2	7	0	0	2	5	0	2	0-0	-	3-8	38%	3-6	50%
Josh Minott #8 · PF · 6'8" 205 · 22	23.4	7	39%	3	1	0	3	2	3	0	3	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
PJ Dozier #35 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 28	19.7	3	25%	1	2	0	0	4	3	1	0	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	0-3	0%

Leonard Miller #33 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 21	23.3	13	93%	8	1	1	1	1	5	1	7	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Daishen Nix #1 · PG · 6'3" 226 · 23	22.6	17	61%	4	5	2	0	1	3	2	2	3-7	43%	4-7	57%	2-4	50%
Jaylen Clark #22 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 23	20.8	11	69%	4	1	4	0	2	6	2	2	0-1	0%	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Keita Bates-Diop #31 · SF · 6'9" 223 · 29	18.3	5	42%	4	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Eugene Omoruyi #97 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 28	7.6	3	75%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Donte DiVincenzo #0 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julius Randle #30 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Joe Ingles #7 · SF · 6'8" 220 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaden McDaniels #3 · PF · 6'9" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Naz Reid #11 · C · 6'9" 264 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #9 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	224	126	57%	45	26	10	4	20	37	16	29	19-30	63%	34-60	57%	13-35	37%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIN
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.35 67.3%

MIN

1.15 57.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

69%

MIN

65%

Midrange

DEN

28%

MIN

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

22.5

58%

87%

MIN

19.5

37%

56%

Free Throws

DEN

76%

MIN

63%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Strawther	33	92%	16.5 / 18
J. Murray	25	74%	12.5 / 17
M. Porter	16	80%	8.0 / 10
R. Westbrook	13	72%	6.5 / 9
D. Šarić	13	93%	6.5 / 7
C. Braun	11	69%	5.5 / 8
V. Cancar	9	75%	4.5 / 6
A. Gordon	5	28%	2.5 / 9
N. Jokić	4	33%	2.0 / 6
H. Tyson	3	38%	1.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Timberwolves

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Garza	29	73%	14.5 / 20
D. Nix	17	61%	8.5 / 14
R. Dillingham	15	54%	7.5 / 14
L. Miller	13	93%	6.5 / 7
J. Clark	11	69%	5.5 / 8
T. Shannon	9	38%	4.5 / 12
J. Minott	7	39%	3.5 / 9
K. Bates-Diop	5	42%	2.5 / 6
P. Dozier	3	25%	1.5 / 6
E. Omoruyi	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	20 105.0 3 113.7	DEN 120.0 +6.5 MIN 113.5
Pace	8 104.2 3 106.2	DEN 110.0 MIN 111.7 +1.7
Avg. Poss. Time	21 13.6 22 13.6	DEN 13.1 MIN 12.9 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	16 52.4% 6 54.5%	DEN 65.1% +8.8% MIN 56.3%
TO %	27 18.6% 5 14.1%	DEN 16.7% MIN 15.6% −1.1%
ORB %	16 23.3% 14 23.9%	DEN 17.1% MIN 30.2% +13.1%
FTrt	1 37.6 17 25.3	DEN 67.1 +35.5 MIN 31.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	2 74.7% 25 61.6%	DEN 77.5% +22.2% MIN 55.3%
STL %	31 6.9% 27 7.9%	DEN 7.3% MIN 9.0% +1.7%
BLK %	31 6.9% 26 7.9%	DEN 11.7% +3.2% MIN 8.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.16 and 2.16.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 55.1% 5 56.7%	DEN 67.3% +10.0% MIN 57.3%
Rim FG%	28 60.0% 25 61.2%	DEN 69.0% +4.0% MIN 65.0%
Mid FG%	8 44.7% 10 43.2%	DEN 27.8% MIN 40.0% +12.2%
3P %	14 33.7% 8 36.0%	DEN 57.7% +20.6% MIN 37.1%
FT %	28 70.1% 26 71.7%	DEN 75.5% +12.2% MIN 63.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	10 34.8% 11 34.7%	DEN 39.7% MIN 42.1% +2.4%
Mid Att. %	20 24.7% 6 18.5%	DEN 24.7% MIN 21.1% −3.6%
3P Att. %	26 40.5% 10 46.7%	DEN 35.6% MIN 36.8% +1.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	MIN
Possessions	110	111
Possession Minutes	24.0	23.9
Points	132	126
Rebounds	43	45
Assists	31	26
Steals	8	10
Blocks	7	4
Turnovers (Team)	19 (0)	20 (0)
Fouls	28	37
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (1)	16 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (1)	29 (3)
Field Goals	40-73	47-95
At-the-Rim FG	20-29	26-40
Midrange FG	5-18	8-20
2-Point FG	25-47	34-60
3-Point FG	15-26	13-35
Free Throws	37-49	19-30
Fast Break Pts	18	21
2nd Chance Pts	7	23
Points in Paint	42	66
Pts off Turnovers	17	25
Bench Points	71	63
Biggest Lead	11	4

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg