Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, October 17, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Grizzlies			141	134.3	105	103.8
		Heat			125	119.0	105	106.2

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+15

-13

107

MIA

+12

-14

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.32 65.9%

MIA

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	25.9	16	47%	3	2	0	0	4	5	0	3	7-9	78%	3-8	38%	1-5	20%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SF · 6'5" 204 · 33	23.9	10	63%	5	2	0	0	1	2	1	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SG · 6'7" 206 · 22	21.6	21	95%	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	3-5	60%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	16.9	12	100%	6	1	0	0	1	2	2	4	1-1	100%	4-4	100%	1-2	50%
Ty Jerome #2 · PG · 6'5" 195 · 28	4.1	0	0%	2	2	1	0	2	0	1	1	0-2	0%	0-0	-	0-0	-

Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	24.9	7	58%	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	4	5-6	83%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	24.2	11	55%	6	5	2	1	1	0	2	4	3-5	60%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	20.9	11	61%	3	5	1	0	0	1	3	0	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	3-6	50%
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	16.3	9	41%	5	0	0	0	1	3	3	2	0-0	-	3-7	43%	1-4	25%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	14.6	5	63%	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	2-4	50%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	12.0	13	108%	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-3	100%
Nate Hinton #44 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 26	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lawson Lovering #34 · C · 7'0" 245 · 22	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 23
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #22 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	209	141	66%	50	26	7	4	13	20	14	36	29-39	74%	26-48	54%	20-39	51%

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Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #8 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 26	25.9	16	47%	3	2	0	0	4	5	0	3	7-9	78%	3-8	38%	1-5	20%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SF · 6'5" 204 · 33	23.9	10	63%	5	2	0	0	1	2	1	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SG · 6'7" 206 · 22	21.6	21	95%	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	3-5	60%
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	16.9	12	100%	6	1	0	0	1	2	2	4	1-1	100%	4-4	100%	1-2	50%
Ty Jerome #2 · PG · 6'5" 195 · 28	4.1	0	0%	2	2	1	0	2	0	1	1	0-2	0%	0-0	-	0-0	-

Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	24.9	7	58%	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	4	5-6	83%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	24.2	11	55%	6	5	2	1	1	0	2	4	3-5	60%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	20.9	11	61%	3	5	1	0	0	1	3	0	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	3-6	50%
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	16.3	9	41%	5	0	0	0	1	3	3	2	0-0	-	3-7	43%	1-4	25%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	14.6	5	63%	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	2-4	50%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	12.0	13	108%	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-3	100%
Nate Hinton #44 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 26	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lawson Lovering #34 · C · 7'0" 245 · 22	1.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 23
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 26
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #22 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	209	141	66%	50	26	7	4	13	20	14	36	29-39	74%	26-48	54%	20-39	51%

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Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	30.4	20	59%	14	0	1	1	1	3	2	12	6-6	100%	7-12	58%	0-3	0%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	26.4	23	61%	8	4	2	1	2	2	3	5	3-5	60%	7-11	64%	2-6	33%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 32	25.4	23	82%	0	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	4-5	80%	5-7	71%	3-6	50%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	22.9	10	56%	3	5	0	0	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	18.1	10	125%	0	2	0	0	1	5	0	0	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	1-1	100%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	26.8	3	19%	1	6	0	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	0-7	0%	1-1	100%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	20.8	5	42%	0	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	17.9	8	80%	3	1	0	0	0	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	12.0	4	100%	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	4-4	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	10.6	4	50%	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	8.0	0	0%	2	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 24	4.9	2	100%	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 19	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bez Mbeng #19 · NA · 6'4" 185 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dain Dainja #42 · PF · 6'9" 255 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Precious Achiuwa #8 · C · 6'8" 243 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	224	125	61%	38	29	5	2	14	27	10	28	20-25	80%	33-58	57%	13-33	39%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.32 65.9%

MIA

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

65%

MIA

67%

Midrange

MEM

35%

MIA

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

30.0

51%

77%

MIA

19.5

39%

59%

Free Throws

MEM

74%

MIA

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Wells	21	95%	10.5 / 11
J. Jackson	16	47%	8.0 / 17
G. Jackson	13	108%	6.5 / 6
J. Landale	12	100%	6.0 / 6
O. Prosper	11	55%	5.5 / 10
C. Spencer	11	61%	5.5 / 9
K. Caldwell-Pope	10	63%	5.0 / 8
S. Aldama	9	41%	4.5 / 11
C. Coward	7	58%	3.5 / 6
J. Konchar	5	63%	2.5 / 4
T. Jerome	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	23	61%	11.5 / 19
N. Powell	23	82%	11.5 / 14
K. Ware	20	59%	10.0 / 17
A. Wiggins	10	56%	5.0 / 9
D. Mitchell	10	125%	5.0 / 4
S. Fontecchio	8	80%	4.0 / 5
P. Larsson	5	42%	2.5 / 6
D. Smith	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Rozier	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Jaquez	3	19%	1.5 / 8
M. Gardner	2	100%	1.0 / 1
K. Johnson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	13 111.8 29 102.3	MEM 134.3 +15.2 MIA 119.0
Pace	11 105.2 6 106.6	MEM 103.8 MIA 106.2 +2.4
Avg. Poss. Time	27 13.2 30 12.5	MEM 13.9 MIA 13.6 −0.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 52.9% 29 48.1%	MEM 64.4% +6.7% MIA 57.7%
TO %	15 16.2% 19 16.6%	MEM 11.8% −0.3% MIA 12.1%
ORB %	18 27.3% 23 25.9%	MEM 33.3% +11.6% MIA 21.7%
FTrt	4 36.2 15 33.9	MEM 44.8 +17.3 MIA 27.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	19 64.1% 25 63.1%	MEM 56.5% MIA 63.0% +6.5%
STL %	22 8.4% 30 7.4%	MEM 6.7% +1.9% MIA 4.8%
BLK %	28 7.9% 27 7.9%	MEM 6.9% +2.7% MIA 4.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.1% 28 52.0%	MEM 65.9% +5.2% MIA 60.7%
Rim FG%	28 57.7% 30 56.5%	MEM 64.5% MIA 66.7% +2.2%
Mid FG%	21 40.6% 24 38.1%	MEM 35.3% MIA 46.4% +11.1%
3P %	5 37.3% 20 31.7%	MEM 51.3% +11.9% MIA 39.4%
FT %	24 72.7% 18 75.7%	MEM 74.4% MIA 80.0% +5.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	32 24.9% 6 36.6%	MEM 35.6% +2.7% MIA 33.0%
Mid Att. %	13 22.7% 33 29.3%	MEM 19.5% −11.2% MIA 30.8%
3P Att. %	2 52.4% 34 34.1%	MEM 44.8% +8.6% MIA 36.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Game Totals	MEM	MIA
Possessions	105	105
Possession Minutes	24.3	23.7
Points	141	125
Rebounds	50	38
Assists	26	29
Steals	7	5
Blocks	4	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls	20	27
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (1)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (0)	28 (4)
Field Goals	46-87	46-91
At-the-Rim FG	20-31	20-30
Midrange FG	6-17	13-28
2-Point FG	26-48	33-58
3-Point FG	20-39	13-33
Free Throws	29-39	20-25
Fast Break Pts	15	12
2nd Chance Pts	17	11
Points in Paint	50	62
Pts off Turnovers	16	22
Bench Points	82	39
Biggest Lead	18	10

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg