Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, October 4, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Timberwolves			126	127.3	99	97.2
		Nuggets			116	118.4	98	99.9

Scoring Opportunities

MIN

+14

-11

102

DEN

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIN

1.24 61.8%

DEN

1.29 64.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rob Dillingham #4 · PG · 6'2" 175 · 21	23.4	7	35%	2	9	0	0	4	4	1	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 33	12.0	6	75%	3	3	2	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Donte DiVincenzo #0 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 29	12.0	8	80%	1	6	1	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Naz Reid #11 · PF · 6'9" 264 · 26	12.0	10	83%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 25	12.0	9	90%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-1	100%

Joan Beringer #19 · C · 6'11" 230 · 19	22.6	14	78%	4	0	0	1	0	5	3	1	2-3	67%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Bones Hyland #8 · PG · 6'2" 169 · 25	22.1	18	90%	3	3	1	0	1	3	0	3	5-6	83%	2-4	50%	3-4	75%
Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 25	20.9	11	42%	4	4	0	0	1	1	0	4	7-8	88%	2-7	29%	0-2	0%
Jaylen Clark #22 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	20.1	2	25%	2	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Joe Ingles #7 · SF · 6'8" 220 · 38	16.2	3	75%	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Alize Johnson #24 · PF · 6'9" 212 · 29	7.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Leonard Miller #33 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 22	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Julius Randle #30 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 38	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	181	126	62%	41	32	7	3	11	24	13	28	21-26	81%	30-58	52%	15-30	50%

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Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rob Dillingham #4 · PG · 6'2" 175 · 21	23.4	7	35%	2	9	0	0	4	4	1	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-4	25%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 33	12.0	6	75%	3	3	2	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Donte DiVincenzo #0 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 29	12.0	8	80%	1	6	1	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Naz Reid #11 · PF · 6'9" 264 · 26	12.0	10	83%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 25	12.0	9	90%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-1	100%

Joan Beringer #19 · C · 6'11" 230 · 19	22.6	14	78%	4	0	0	1	0	5	3	1	2-3	67%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Bones Hyland #8 · PG · 6'2" 169 · 25	22.1	18	90%	3	3	1	0	1	3	0	3	5-6	83%	2-4	50%	3-4	75%
Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 25	20.9	11	42%	4	4	0	0	1	1	0	4	7-8	88%	2-7	29%	0-2	0%
Jaylen Clark #22 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	20.1	2	25%	2	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Joe Ingles #7 · SF · 6'8" 220 · 38	16.2	3	75%	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Alize Johnson #24 · PF · 6'9" 212 · 29	7.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Leonard Miller #33 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 22	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Julius Randle #30 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 38	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	181	126	62%	41	32	7	3	11	24	13	28	21-26	81%	30-58	52%	15-30	50%

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Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	18.8	14	88%	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	5	6-6	100%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	16.4	12	75%	1	5	0	1	2	3	0	1	5-5	100%	2-3	67%	1-3	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	15.4	7	88%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	2-4	50%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	15.1	14	100%	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	5-6	83%	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	14.6	2	33%	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	17.8	10	100%	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0-0	-	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	17.6	7	58%	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-1	0%	2-5	40%	1-1	100%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	15.7	2	33%	1	2	2	1	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	15.1	9	90%	3	0	1	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-5	60%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	15.0	3	30%	2	3	0	0	1	3	0	2	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	14.3	13	72%	3	4	0	0	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	3-4	75%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	13.3	6	60%	1	2	1	1	4	5	0	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	11.8	4	33%	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	10.2	0	0%	1	0	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	8.7	5	83%	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Moses Brown #34 · C · 7'2" 258 · 26	4.2	8	80%	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Kessler Edwards #20 · SF · 6'8" 203 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	224	116	64%	37	27	9	4	15	22	7	30	23-28	82%	30-47	64%	11-28	39%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIN	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	MIN	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIN

1.24 61.8%

DEN

1.29 64.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIN

65%

DEN

67%

Midrange

MIN

41%

DEN

61%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIN

22.5

50%

75%

DEN

16.5

39%

59%

Free Throws

MIN

81%

DEN

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Timberwolves

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Hyland	18	90%	9.0 / 10
J. Beringer	14	78%	7.0 / 9
T. Shannon	11	42%	5.5 / 13
N. Reid	10	83%	5.0 / 6
J. McDaniels	9	90%	4.5 / 5
D. DiVincenzo	8	80%	4.0 / 5
R. Dillingham	7	35%	3.5 / 10
R. Gobert	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Ingles	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Clark	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	14	88%	7.0 / 8
A. Gordon	14	100%	7.0 / 7
J. Pickett	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Murray	12	75%	6.0 / 8
P. Watson	10	100%	5.0 / 5
H. Tyson	9	90%	4.5 / 5
M. Brown	8	80%	4.0 / 5
C. Braun	7	88%	3.5 / 4
J. Strawther	7	58%	3.5 / 6
J. Valančiūnas	6	60%	3.0 / 5
D. Holmes	5	83%	2.5 / 3
Z. Nnaji	4	33%	2.0 / 6
T. Hardaway	3	30%	1.5 / 5
C. Johnson	2	33%	1.0 / 3
B. Brown	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	10 113.2 16 110.5	MIN 127.3 +8.9 DEN 118.4
Pace	21 102.3 31 98.6	MIN 97.2 DEN 99.9 +2.7
Avg. Poss. Time	18 13.8 4 14.5	MIN 14.8 DEN 14.4 −0.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	6 56.9% 11 54.9%	MIN 59.7% DEN 62.0% +2.3%
TO %	27 17.6% 22 16.8%	MIN 10.0% −5.5% DEN 15.5%
ORB %	17 27.5% 31 21.7%	MIN 30.2% +10.2% DEN 20.0%
FTrt	23 30.0 10 34.5	MIN 29.5 DEN 37.3 +7.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	16 64.5% 17 64.4%	MIN 71.1% +5.2% DEN 65.9%
STL %	19 8.7% 16 9.3%	MIN 7.1% DEN 9.2% +2.1%
BLK %	20 9.8% 23 8.4%	MIN 6.4% DEN 6.9% +0.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	7 58.8% 12 57.7%	MIN 61.8% DEN 64.4% +2.6%
Rim FG%	17 65.4% 23 62.1%	MIN 65.4% DEN 66.7% +1.3%
Mid FG%	29 34.8% 6 48.5%	MIN 40.6% DEN 60.9% +20.3%
3P %	1 42.9% 12 35.6%	MIN 50.0% +10.7% DEN 39.3%
FT %	17 75.9% 15 76.8%	MIN 80.8% DEN 82.1% +1.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	9 35.2% 17 31.0%	MIN 29.5% DEN 32.0% +2.5%
Mid Att. %	25 26.2% 18 24.8%	MIN 36.4% DEN 30.7% −5.7%
3P Att. %	31 38.6% 18 44.3%	MIN 34.1% DEN 37.3% +3.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIN	DEN
Possessions	99	98
Possession Minutes	24.5	23.5
Points	126	116
Rebounds	41	37
Assists	32	27
Steals	7	9
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	15 (1)
Fouls	24	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (1)	7 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (2)	30 (3)
Field Goals	45-88	41-75
At-the-Rim FG	17-26	16-24
Midrange FG	13-32	14-23
2-Point FG	30-58	30-47
3-Point FG	15-30	11-28
Free Throws	21-26	23-28
Fast Break Pts	16	16
2nd Chance Pts	15	7
Points in Paint	50	48
Pts off Turnovers	20	14
Bench Points	86	67
Biggest Lead	19	1

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg