Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, October 6, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Nuggets			112	108.7	103	99.7
		Raptors			108	103.8	104	107.5

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+12

-31

TOR

+20

-11

113

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.33 66.7%

TOR

0.96 48.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	22.0	1	17%	7	4	0	0	2	0	1	6	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	22.0	19	119%	2	2	2	0	3	3	0	2	0-0	-	5-5	100%	3-3	100%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	20.6	17	94%	6	5	1	0	6	2	0	6	7-9	78%	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	20.6	17	77%	4	2	0	0	2	1	0	4	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	3-6	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	20.2	11	79%	4	1	0	1	0	2	1	3	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	1-3	33%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	17.9	7	58%	2	1	2	2	4	2	1	1	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	15.8	2	17%	3	1	1	0	2	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	15.5	7	44%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	14.5	9	90%	4	1	0	0	3	3	0	4	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	14.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	13.4	6	50%	4	1	0	0	3	2	2	2	2-5	40%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	12.0	3	30%	1	1	0	0	2	2	1	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	7.6	2	100%	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Kessler Edwards #20 · SF · 6'8" 203 · 25	4.4	1	50%	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	4.4	6	150%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision \| Did Not Dress
Moses Brown #34 · C · 7'2" 258 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	225	112	67%	48	22	8	6	31	22	8	40	25-35	71%	27-38	71%	11-29	38%

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Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	22.0	1	17%	7	4	0	0	2	0	1	6	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	22.0	19	119%	2	2	2	0	3	3	0	2	0-0	-	5-5	100%	3-3	100%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	20.6	17	94%	6	5	1	0	6	2	0	6	7-9	78%	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	20.6	17	77%	4	2	0	0	2	1	0	4	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	3-6	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	20.2	11	79%	4	1	0	1	0	2	1	3	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	1-3	33%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	17.9	7	58%	2	1	2	2	4	2	1	1	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	15.8	2	17%	3	1	1	0	2	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	15.5	7	44%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	14.5	9	90%	4	1	0	0	3	3	0	4	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	14.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	13.4	6	50%	4	1	0	0	3	2	2	2	2-5	40%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	12.0	3	30%	1	1	0	0	2	2	1	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	7.6	2	100%	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Kessler Edwards #20 · SF · 6'8" 203 · 25	4.4	1	50%	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	4.4	6	150%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision \| Did Not Dress
Moses Brown #34 · C · 7'2" 258 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	225	112	67%	48	22	8	6	31	22	8	40	25-35	71%	27-38	71%	11-29	38%

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Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandon Ingram #3 · SF · 6'8" 190 · 28	22.2	19	63%	1	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	6-7	86%	5-9	56%	1-3	33%
RJ Barrett #9 · SG · 6'6" 214 · 25	20.9	19	68%	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	2	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Immanuel Quickley #5 · PG · 6'2" 190 · 26	20.1	8	67%	1	3	1	0	0	2	0	1	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	1-3	33%
Scottie Barnes #4 · PF · 6'8" 237 · 24	18.8	1	7%	4	5	3	0	1	4	1	3	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Jonathan Mogbo #2 · C · 6'9" 225 · 24	15.6	6	50%	2	0	2	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-

Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	22.7	15	94%	6	2	2	0	0	4	0	6	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-5	60%
Gradey Dick #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 22	17.5	5	36%	3	1	0	0	3	5	2	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
Collin Murray-Boyles #12 · PF · 6'7" 245 · 20	16.8	4	29%	3	1	0	0	0	4	2	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Jamal Shead #23 · PG · 6'1" 200 · 23	16.6	11	61%	1	5	1	0	1	4	0	1	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Ochai Agbaji #30 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	15.6	7	88%	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Ja'Kobe Walter #14 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	15.1	5	36%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1-3	33%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Jamison Battle #77 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 24	8.4	2	20%	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
A.J. Lawson #0 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 25	5.1	2	25%	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision \| Did Not Dress
Jared Rhoden #8 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Garrett Temple #17 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 39	DNP – Coach's Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	215	108	48%	38	26	17	0	11	31	15	23	18-27	67%	30-55	55%	10-42	24%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.33 66.7%

TOR

0.96 48.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

80%

TOR

71%

Midrange

DEN

61%

TOR

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

16.5

38%

57%

TOR

15.0

24%

36%

Free Throws

DEN

71%

TOR

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Braun	19	119%	9.5 / 8
N. Jokić	17	94%	8.5 / 9
J. Murray	17	77%	8.5 / 11
C. Johnson	11	79%	5.5 / 7
J. Strawther	9	90%	4.5 / 5
B. Brown	7	58%	3.5 / 6
T. Hardaway	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Valančiūnas	6	50%	3.0 / 6
D. Holmes	6	150%	3.0 / 2
H. Tyson	3	30%	1.5 / 5
J. Pickett	2	17%	1.0 / 6
Z. Nnaji	2	100%	1.0 / 1
P. Watson	1	17%	0.5 / 3
K. Edwards	1	50%	0.5 / 1
S. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Ingram	19	63%	9.5 / 15
R. Barrett	19	68%	9.5 / 14
S. Mamukelashvili	15	94%	7.5 / 8
J. Shead	11	61%	5.5 / 9
I. Quickley	8	67%	4.0 / 6
O. Agbaji	7	88%	3.5 / 4
J. Mogbo	6	50%	3.0 / 6
G. Dick	5	36%	2.5 / 7
J. Walter	5	36%	2.5 / 7
C. Murray-Boyles	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. Battle	2	20%	1.0 / 5
A. Lawson	2	25%	1.0 / 4
S. Barnes	1	7%	0.5 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	16 110.5 22 107.9	DEN 108.7 +4.9 TOR 103.8
Pace	31 98.6 9 105.8	DEN 99.7 TOR 107.5 +7.9
Avg. Poss. Time	4 14.5 25 13.3	DEN 14.4 TOR 13.4 −1.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	11 54.9% 26 49.4%	DEN 64.9% +18.5% TOR 46.4%
TO %	22 16.8% 2 13.2%	DEN 27.3% TOR 9.9% −17.4%
ORB %	31 21.7% 16 27.9%	DEN 25.8% TOR 27.3% +1.5%
FTrt	10 34.5 29 26.2	DEN 52.2 +24.4 TOR 27.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	17 64.4% 1 73.1%	DEN 57.9% TOR 65.0% +7.1%
STL %	16 9.3% 6 11.4%	DEN 7.8% TOR 16.3% +8.5%
BLK %	23 8.4% 22 8.7%	DEN 10.9% +10.9% TOR 0.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	12 57.7% 27 52.1%	DEN 66.7% +18.5% TOR 48.2%
Rim FG%	23 62.1% 22 62.2%	DEN 80.0% +9.0% TOR 71.0%
Mid FG%	6 48.5% 34 30.0%	DEN 61.1% +27.8% TOR 33.3%
3P %	12 35.6% 14 34.5%	DEN 37.9% +14.1% TOR 23.8%
FT %	15 76.8% 9 79.3%	DEN 71.4% +4.7% TOR 66.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	17 31.0% 14 32.3%	DEN 29.9% TOR 32.0% +2.1%
Mid Att. %	18 24.8% 24 26.2%	DEN 26.9% TOR 24.7% −2.1%
3P Att. %	18 44.3% 23 41.5%	DEN 43.3% TOR 43.3% +0.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	TOR
Possessions	103	104
Possession Minutes	24.8	23.2
Points	112	108
Rebounds	48	38
Assists	22	26
Steals	8	17
Blocks	6	0
Turnovers (Team)	31 (0)	11 (1)
Fouls	22	31
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (4)	15 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (1)	23 (2)
Field Goals	38-67	40-97
At-the-Rim FG	16-20	22-31
Midrange FG	11-18	8-24
2-Point FG	27-38	30-55
3-Point FG	11-29	10-42
Free Throws	25-35	18-27
Fast Break Pts	14	25
2nd Chance Pts	12	18
Points in Paint	46	58
Pts off Turnovers	17	32
Bench Points	47	55
Biggest Lead	16	3

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg