Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, October 17, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Pacers			104	102.0	102	108.3
		Spurs			133	131.7	101	95.5

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+20

-19

103

SAS

+16

-15

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.01 50.5%

SAS

1.30 65.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	18.2	9	75%	2	4	0	0	2	4	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	18.1	12	86%	1	3	1	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	18.0	10	45%	2	5	1	0	3	0	2	0	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-5	40%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 23	18.0	11	79%	4	0	0	0	2	1	1	3	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	15.0	8	57%	2	0	2	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-

Gabe McGlothan #41 · PF · 6'6" 235 · 27	20.1	5	36%	2	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	19.8	2	14%	2	2	1	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
James Wiseman #11 · C · 6'11" 240 · 25	18.8	6	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Cameron Payne #15 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 31	15.3	10	56%	1	2	1	0	2	1	0	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	2-5	40%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	13.8	9	50%	5	1	0	2	1	2	3	2	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	11.9	5	63%	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	7.1	4	100%	3	0	0	0	2	2	2	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Coaches Decision
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	194	104	51%	38	26	9	6	19	28	15	23	14-15	93%	27-50	54%	12-44	27%

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Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	18.2	9	75%	2	4	0	0	2	4	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	18.1	12	86%	1	3	1	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	18.0	10	45%	2	5	1	0	3	0	2	0	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-5	40%
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 23	18.0	11	79%	4	0	0	0	2	1	1	3	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	15.0	8	57%	2	0	2	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-

Gabe McGlothan #41 · PF · 6'6" 235 · 27	20.1	5	36%	2	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	19.8	2	14%	2	2	1	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
James Wiseman #11 · C · 6'11" 240 · 25	18.8	6	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Cameron Payne #15 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 31	15.3	10	56%	1	2	1	0	2	1	0	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	2-5	40%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	13.8	9	50%	5	1	0	2	1	2	3	2	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	11.9	5	63%	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	7.1	4	100%	3	0	0	0	2	2	2	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Coaches Decision
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	194	104	51%	38	26	9	6	19	28	15	23	14-15	93%	27-50	54%	12-44	27%

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San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	25.1	16	67%	2	9	2	0	1	3	0	2	5-6	83%	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	23.7	17	85%	12	1	1	4	4	2	3	9	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	1-1	100%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	23.4	15	125%	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	5-6	83%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	23.3	10	56%	3	4	1	1	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	20.5	9	113%	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%

Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	20.9	15	83%	6	0	0	1	2	2	5	1	5-5	100%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	20.6	7	39%	4	4	0	1	0	4	1	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	18.7	6	27%	2	3	1	0	4	1	0	2	0-2	0%	3-9	33%	0-1	0%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	17.4	12	50%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	6-9	67%	0-3	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	10.5	3	75%	1	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Micah Potter #33 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	9.5	11	79%	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Adam Flagler #14 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 26	Inactive - Coaches Decision
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 34	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	214	133	65%	42	31	9	10	15	19	12	30	25-30	83%	33-52	63%	14-35	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	IND	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.01 50.5%

SAS

1.30 65.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

60%

SAS

66%

Midrange

IND

48%

SAS

55%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

18.0

27%

41%

SAS

21.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

IND

93%

SAS

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nesmith	12	86%	6.0 / 7
B. Mathurin	11	79%	5.5 / 7
A. Nembhard	10	45%	5.0 / 11
C. Payne	10	56%	5.0 / 9
P. Siakam	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. Huff	9	50%	4.5 / 9
I. Jackson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
J. Wiseman	6	50%	3.0 / 6
G. McGlothan	5	36%	2.5 / 7
B. Sheppard	5	63%	2.5 / 4
T. Bradley	4	100%	2.0 / 2
O. Toppin	2	14%	1.0 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	17	85%	8.5 / 10
S. Castle	16	67%	8.0 / 12
J. Champagnie	15	125%	7.5 / 6
L. Kornet	15	83%	7.5 / 9
K. Johnson	12	50%	6.0 / 12
M. Potter	11	79%	5.5 / 7
D. Vassell	10	56%	5.0 / 9
H. Barnes	9	113%	4.5 / 4
C. Bryant	7	39%	3.5 / 9
D. Harper	6	27%	3.0 / 11
J. McLaughlin	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	20 109.5 3 120.8	IND 102.0 SAS 131.7 +29.7
Pace	18 103.1 25 100.9	IND 108.3 +12.8 SAS 95.5
Avg. Poss. Time	12 14.0 -1 15.1	IND 13.3 −1.8 SAS 15.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	13 54.6% 3 57.9%	IND 47.9% SAS 62.1% +14.2%
TO %	33 20.8% 26 17.5%	IND 15.9% SAS 13.0% −2.9%
ORB %	10 30.6% 4 34.6%	IND 33.3% SAS 34.3% +1.0%
FTrt	30 25.8 12 34.3	IND 16.0 SAS 34.5 +18.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	7 69.3% 11 67.0%	IND 66.7% +0.7% SAS 66.0%
STL %	12 9.9% 9 10.3%	IND 8.8% SAS 8.9% +0.1%
BLK %	16 10.6% 11 12.6%	IND 11.5% SAS 20.0% +8.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Pre-season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 57.4% 1 60.5%	IND 50.5% SAS 65.2% +14.7%
Rim FG%	12 67.0% 7 69.8%	IND 60.0% SAS 65.9% +5.9%
Mid FG%	16 42.9% 15 43.2%	IND 48.0% SAS 54.5% +6.5%
3P %	13 35.2% 9 36.1%	IND 27.3% SAS 40.0% +12.7%
FT %	7 80.4% 13 77.3%	IND 93.3% +10.0% SAS 83.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 28.1% 4 37.1%	IND 26.6% SAS 47.1% +20.5%
Mid Att. %	11 21.6% 5 18.5%	IND 26.6% SAS 12.6% −14.0%
3P Att. %	6 50.3% 16 44.4%	IND 46.8% +6.6% SAS 40.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	SAS
Possessions	102	101
Possession Minutes	22.6	25.4
Points	104	133
Rebounds	38	42
Assists	26	31
Steals	9	9
Blocks	6	10
Turnovers (Team)	19 (0)	15 (0)
Fouls	28	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (5)	12 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	23 (3)	30 (5)
Field Goals	39-94	47-87
At-the-Rim FG	15-25	27-41
Midrange FG	12-25	6-11
2-Point FG	27-50	33-52
3-Point FG	12-44	14-35
Free Throws	14-15	25-30
Fast Break Pts	17	30
2nd Chance Pts	12	25
Points in Paint	46	60
Pts off Turnovers	20	26
Bench Points	54	66
Biggest Lead	2	31

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Pre-season Avg

Pre-season Avg