Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, October 3, 2026

Final				ORTG	#Poss	Pace
		Heat	129	116.2	111	111.3
		Raptors	105	94.6	111	110.7

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+10

-25

TOR

+13

-19

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.25 62.6%

TOR

0.95 47.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #7 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 32	14.1	9	113%	4	7	0	0	2	1	0	4	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Klay Thompson #11 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 37	12.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 32	12.8	12	100%	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-6	67%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	12.8	10	50%	6	0	0	0	2	3	2	4	5-6	83%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Davion Mitchell #2 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	12.8	3	30%	1	4	1	0	2	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-3	33%

Ryan Conwell #4 · G · 6'4" 215 · 22	18.4	6	43%	1	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-3	0%
Bez Mbeng #19 · G · 6'4" 185 · 23	17.6	11	55%	3	3	2	0	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-2	50%
Nikola Jović #5 · F · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.4	11	50%	7	4	0	2	2	2	0	7	4-4	100%	2-5	40%	1-4	25%
Tre Donaldson #24 · G · 6'3" 195 · 23	16.4	6	38%	0	5	1	1	2	2	0	0	4-6	67%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · F · 6'5" 225 · 25	13.8	7	58%	4	2	1	1	3	5	0	4	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Bobby Portis Jr. #95 · F · 6'9" 250 · 32	11.2	4	40%	3	2	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · G-F · 6'5" 205 · 35	11.2	14	140%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	3-3	100%
Pelle Larsson #9 · G · 6'5" 215 · 26	11.2	13	108%	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	2	7-7	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Simone Fontecchio #0 · F · 6'7" 220 · 31	11.2	4	50%	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Nick Richards #8 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	10.4	0	0%	7	0	0	2	2	2	2	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
#14 · · 0'0" · 0	10.2	2	100%	6	0	1	0	0	1	1	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
#20 · · 0'0" · 0	9.5	11	110%	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Lester Quinones #25 · G · 6'4" 208 · 26	9.2	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	7.0	6	75%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · F · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP
Dru Smith #12 · G · 6'2" 200 · 29	DNP
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	63%	54	33	9	2	25	24	10	44	31-36	86%	28-46	61%	14-40	35%

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Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #7 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 32	14.1	9	113%	4	7	0	0	2	1	0	4	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Klay Thompson #11 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 37	12.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 32	12.8	12	100%	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-6	67%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	12.8	10	50%	6	0	0	0	2	3	2	4	5-6	83%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Davion Mitchell #2 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	12.8	3	30%	1	4	1	0	2	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-3	33%

Ryan Conwell #4 · G · 6'4" 215 · 22	18.4	6	43%	1	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-3	0%
Bez Mbeng #19 · G · 6'4" 185 · 23	17.6	11	55%	3	3	2	0	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-2	50%
Nikola Jović #5 · F · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.4	11	50%	7	4	0	2	2	2	0	7	4-4	100%	2-5	40%	1-4	25%
Tre Donaldson #24 · G · 6'3" 195 · 23	16.4	6	38%	0	5	1	1	2	2	0	0	4-6	67%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · F · 6'5" 225 · 25	13.8	7	58%	4	2	1	1	3	5	0	4	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-4	25%
Bobby Portis Jr. #95 · F · 6'9" 250 · 32	11.2	4	40%	3	2	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · G-F · 6'5" 205 · 35	11.2	14	140%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	3-3	100%
Pelle Larsson #9 · G · 6'5" 215 · 26	11.2	13	108%	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	2	7-7	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Simone Fontecchio #0 · F · 6'7" 220 · 31	11.2	4	50%	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Nick Richards #8 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	10.4	0	0%	7	0	0	2	2	2	2	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
#14 · · 0'0" · 0	10.2	2	100%	6	0	1	0	0	1	1	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
#20 · · 0'0" · 0	9.5	11	110%	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Lester Quinones #25 · G · 6'4" 208 · 26	9.2	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	7.0	6	75%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · F · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP
Dru Smith #12 · G · 6'2" 200 · 29	DNP
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	63%	54	33	9	2	25	24	10	44	31-36	86%	28-46	61%	14-40	35%

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Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 31	17.7	9	90%	1	1	2	1	1	3	0	1	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Ja'Kobe Walter #14 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	17.6	8	50%	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
RJ Barrett #9 · SF · 6'6" 214 · 26	17.4	15	58%	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	3	7-8	88%	1-5	20%	2-4	50%
Scottie Barnes #4 · PF · 6'8" 237 · 25	12.2	11	46%	2	2	3	0	3	3	2	0	1-2	50%	5-10	50%	0-1	0%
Immanuel Quickley #5 · PG · 6'2" 190 · 27	12.0	5	42%	2	3	1	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Malachi Smith #18 · G · 6'4" 205 · 27	30.6	7	29%	4	2	2	0	2	1	2	2	1-2	50%	3-7	43%	0-4	0%
Jamal Shead #1 · G · 6'1" 200 · 24	27.8	3	19%	5	8	2	1	3	0	2	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-3	0%
Chucky Hepburn #24 · G · 6'0" 190 · 24	25.4	11	79%	5	2	4	0	2	3	1	4	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
#25 · · 0'0" · 25	24.2	6	27%	3	3	1	0	4	6	0	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-8	13%
Collin Murray-Boyles #30 · F · 6'7" 245 · 21	20.1	6	30%	9	1	0	0	0	2	4	5	0-1	0%	3-9	33%	0-1	0%
Jaden Bradley #8 · G · 6'3" 205 · 23	19.5	9	75%	3	2	1	0	0	5	1	2	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Tyreke Key #11 · G · 6'1" 207 · 28	15.6	15	75%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	4-7	57%
Jamison Battle #77 · F · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP
Alijah Martin #55 · G · 6'2" 210 · 25	DNP
Nate Bittle #12 · C · 7'0" 215 · 23	DNP
Trey Jemison III #50 · C · 6'10" 270 · 27	DNP
Allen Graves #22 · F · 6'8" 226 · 20	DNP
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · G · 6'6" 209 · 25	DNP
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · F · 6'9" 245 · 27	DNP
Kyle Anderson #13 · F-G · 6'8" 230 · 33	DNP
Kawhi Leonard #2 · F · 6'6" 225 · 35	DNP
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	48%	44	26	17	7	19	30	13	31	19-30	63%	25-53	47%	12-41	29%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	TOR

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.25 62.6%

TOR

0.95 47.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

81%

TOR

67%

Midrange

MIA

35%

TOR

22%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

21.0

35%

53%

TOR

18.0

29%

44%

Free Throws

MIA

86%

TOR

63%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Hardaway	14	140%	7.0 / 5
P. Larsson	13	108%	6.5 / 6
A. Wiggins	12	100%	6.0 / 6
B. Mbeng	11	55%	5.5 / 10
N. Jović	11	50%	5.5 / 11
	11	110%	5.5 / 5
B. Adebayo	10	50%	5.0 / 10
G. Antetokounmpo	9	113%	4.5 / 4
M. Gardner	7	58%	3.5 / 6
R. Conwell	6	43%	3.0 / 7
T. Donaldson	6	38%	3.0 / 8
V. Goldin	6	75%	3.0 / 4
B. Portis	4	40%	2.0 / 5
S. Fontecchio	4	50%	2.0 / 4
D. Mitchell	3	30%	1.5 / 5
	2	100%	1.0 / 1
K. Thompson	0	-	0.0 / 2
L. Quinones	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Barrett	15	58%	7.5 / 13
T. Key	15	75%	7.5 / 10
S. Barnes	11	46%	5.5 / 12
C. Hepburn	11	79%	5.5 / 7
J. Poeltl	9	90%	4.5 / 5
J. Bradley	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. Walter	8	50%	4.0 / 8
M. Smith	7	29%	3.5 / 12
N. Burnett	6	27%	3.0 / 11
C. Murray-Boyles	6	30%	3.0 / 10
I. Quickley	5	42%	2.5 / 6
J. Shead	3	19%	1.5 / 8

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Last Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 15 115.1	MIA 116.2 +21.6 TOR 94.6
Pace	1 104.3 22 99.1	MIA 111.3 +0.7 TOR 110.7
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 18 14.2	MIA 12.9 −0.1 TOR 13.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 16 54.6%	MIA 57.0% +11.3% TOR 45.7%
TO %	5 12.6% 7 12.9%	MIA 19.7% TOR 15.1% −4.6%
ORB %	17 25.4% 16 25.5%	MIA 24.4% +1.6% TOR 22.8%
FTrt	14 26.8 16 26.5	MIA 41.9 +10.0 TOR 31.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 3 69.2%	MIA 78.6% +8.3% TOR 70.3%
STL %	17 8.3% 8 8.8%	MIA 8.1% TOR 15.3% +7.2%
BLK %	22 8.5% 5 10.3%	MIA 3.8% TOR 15.2% +11.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.11 and 2.11.

Last Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 16 56.6%	MIA 62.6% +14.9% TOR 47.7%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 6 66.5%	MIA 80.8% +14.1% TOR 66.7%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 16 43.7%	MIA 35.0% +13.3% TOR 21.7%
3P %	12 36.1% 21 35.4%	MIA 35.0% +5.7% TOR 29.3%
FT %	11 79.2% 22 76.9%	MIA 86.1% +22.8% TOR 63.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 10 32.9%	MIA 30.2% TOR 31.9% +1.7%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 27 30.7%	MIA 23.3% −1.2% TOR 24.5%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 25 36.3%	MIA 46.5% +2.9% TOR 43.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	TOR
Possessions	111	111
Possession Minutes	23.9	24.1
Points	129	105
Rebounds	54	44
Assists	33	26
Steals	9	17
Blocks	2	7
Turnovers (Team)	25 (0)	19 (0)
Fouls	24	30
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (0)	13 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	44 (0)	31 (0)
Field Goals	42-86	37-94
At-the-Rim FG	21-26	20-30
Midrange FG	7-20	5-23
2-Point FG	28-46	25-53
3-Point FG	14-40	12-41
Free Throws	31-36	19-30
Fast Break Pts	27	28
2nd Chance Pts	16	8
Points in Paint	48	50
Pts off Turnovers	17	15
Bench Points	95	57
Biggest Lead	24	2

No boxscore predictions available for this game.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Last Season Avg

Last Season Avg