Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, February 8, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	25	Bobcats	37%	87	92
	16	Heat	63%	91	96

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
CHA	110.8	83	87.9
MIA	114.3	84	79.6

Scoring Opportunities

CHA

+17

-13

MIA

-8

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHA

1.05 52.3%

MIA

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	CHA	MIA
Q4 - 0:00.0	MIA		92 0%	96 100%
Q4 - 0:05.0	CHA	Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS)	92 0.2%	96 99.8%
Q4 - 0:12.0	MIA	Chalmers Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	89 0.1%	96 99.9%
Q4 - 0:12.0	MIA	MISS Chalmers Free Throw 1 of 2	89 0.1%	95 99.9%
Q4 - 0:13.0	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	89 0.1%	95 99.9%
Q4 - 0:14.0	CHA	MISS Felton 25' 3PT Jump Shot	89 0.1%	95 99.9%
Q4 - 0:21.0	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	89 0.5%	95 99.5%
Q4 - 0:21.0	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	89 0.6%	94 99.4%
Q4 - 0:25.0	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	89 1.5%	93 98.5%
Q4 - 0:27.0	MIA	MISS Wade 8' Floating Jump Shot	89 3.2%	93 96.8%
Q4 - 0:43.0	CHA	Felton 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Augustin 6 AST)	89 3.1%	93 96.9%
Q4 - 1:01	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	86 1.4%	93 98.6%
Q4 - 1:02	MIA	MISS Chalmers 20' Jump Shot	86 1.2%	93 98.8%
Q4 - 1:18	CHA	Augustin Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	86 1.2%	93 98.8%
Q4 - 1:18	CHA	MISS Augustin Free Throw 1 of 2	85 1.1%	93 98.9%
Q4 - 1:27	MIA	Wade 16' Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Haslem 1 AST)	85 1.5%	93 98.5%
Q4 - 1:45	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	85 3.2%	91 96.8%
Q4 - 1:46	CHA	MISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 1	85 3.5%	91 96.5%
Q4 - 1:49	MIA	Haslem 17' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Chalmers 13 AST)	83 2.2%	91 97.8%
Q4 - 2:06	CHA	Diop Layup (8 PTS) (Augustin 5 AST)	83 3.2%	89 96.8%
Q4 - 2:29	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (20 PTS)	81 2.3%	89 97.7%
Q4 - 2:54	CHA	Okafor Dunk (10 PTS) (Augustin 4 AST)	81 4.2%	87 95.8%
Q4 - 3:15	MIA	Chalmers 16' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	79 3.0%	87 97.0%
Q4 - 3:30	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	79 4.0%	85 96.0%
Q4 - 3:31	CHA	MISS Felton 21' Jump Shot	79 7.7%	85 92.3%
Q4 - 3:52	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	79 9.4%	85 90.6%
Q4 - 3:54	CHA	MISS Okafor 4' Jump Shot	79 7.2%	85 92.8%
Q4 - 4:14	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	79 9.2%	85 90.8%
Q4 - 4:15	MIA	MISS Anthony Layup	79 8.2%	85 91.8%
Q4 - 4:30	CHA	Chalmers STEAL (2 STL)	79 6.2%	85 93.8%
Q4 - 4:38	MIA	Chalmers Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	79 9.1%	85 90.9%
Q4 - 4:38	MIA	MISS Chalmers Free Throw 1 of 2	79 9.7%	84 90.3%
Q4 - 4:57	CHA	Felton 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	79 8.8%	84 91.2%
Q4 - 5:08	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	77 8.5%	84 91.5%
Q4 - 5:09	CHA	MISS Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot	77 6.8%	84 93.2%
Q4 - 5:28	MIA	Anthony Layup (4 PTS) (Chalmers 12 AST)	77 8.4%	84 91.6%
Q4 - 5:37	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	77 11.2%	82 88.8%
Q4 - 5:38	CHA	MISS Felton 13' Jump Shot	77 12.3%	82 87.7%
Q4 - 5:45	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	77 15.2%	82 84.8%
Q4 - 5:46	CHA	Anthony BLOCK (2 BLK)	77 12.3%	82 87.7%
Q4 - 6:06	MIA	Cook 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS)	77 17.2%	82 82.8%
Q4 - 6:29	CHA	Augustin 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Diaw 4 AST)	77 27.2%	79 72.8%
Q4 - 6:47	MIA	Cook 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Chalmers 11 AST)	74 17.0%	79 83.0%
Q4 - 6:54	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	74 27.1%	76 72.9%
Q4 - 6:56	CHA	MISS Howard 18' Jump Shot	74 29.1%	76 70.9%
Q4 - 7:10	CHA	Ajinca REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	74 34.1%	76 65.9%
Q4 - 7:11	MIA	MISS Wade 12' Floating Jump Shot	74 32.1%	76 67.9%
Q4 - 7:27	CHA	Ajinca Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	74 27.7%	76 72.3%
Q4 - 7:27	CHA	Ajinca Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	73 26.1%	76 73.9%
Q4 - 7:39	MIA	HEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)	72 22.8%	76 77.2%
Q4 - 7:39	MIA	HEAT Rebound	72 17.9%	76 82.1%
Q4 - 7:40	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	72 21.2%	76 78.8%
Q4 - 8:05	CHA	Ajinca 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Felton 11 AST)	72 19.5%	76 80.5%
Q4 - 8:21	CHA	Ajinca REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	70 15.5%	76 84.5%
Q4 - 8:22	MIA	MISS Cook 19' Jump Shot	70 14.5%	76 85.5%
Q4 - 8:38	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	70 12.5%	76 87.5%
Q4 - 8:39	CHA	MISS Ajinca Alley Oop Layup	70 13.3%	76 86.7%
Q4 - 8:41	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	70 15.5%	76 84.5%
Q4 - 8:42	CHA	Anthony BLOCK (1 BLK)	70 13.3%	76 86.7%
Q4 - 8:58	MIA	Quinn 10' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	70 15.5%	76 84.5%
Q4 - 9:11	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	70 20.6%	74 79.4%
Q4 - 9:12	CHA	MISS Felton 8' Jump Shot	70 21.8%	74 78.2%
Q4 - 9:29	MIA	Beasley Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)	70 24.6%	74 75.4%
Q4 - 9:51	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	70 20.5%	74 79.5%
Q4 - 9:52	CHA	MISS Felton Free Throw 1 of 1	70 21.1%	74 78.9%
Q4 - 10:02	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	68 17.7%	74 82.3%
Q4 - 10:04	MIA	MISS Quinn 10' Floating Jump Shot	68 16.7%	74 83.3%
Q4 - 10:34	CHA	Diaw 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Felton 10 AST)	68 14.6%	74 85.4%
Q4 - 10:57	MIA	Cook Driving Layup (10 PTS)	65 9.7%	74 90.3%
Q4 - 11:15	CHA	Diaw Reverse Layup (7 PTS)	65 12.9%	72 87.1%
Q4 - 11:32	MIA	Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Quinn 3 AST)	63 10.6%	72 89.4%
Q4 - 11:47	CHA	Felton 9' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS)	63 15.5%	69 84.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHA		61 12.7%	69 87.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	61 12.7%	69 87.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHA	Marion BLOCK (1 BLK)	61 11.2%	69 88.8%
Q3 - 0:01.0	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	61 13.5%	69 86.5%
Q3 - 0:02.0	CHA	Beasley BLOCK (2 BLK)	61 12.1%	69 87.9%
Q3 - 0:02.0	CHA	Ajinca REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	61 13.5%	69 86.5%
Q3 - 0:03.0	CHA	MISS Felton Layup	61 12.1%	69 87.9%
Q3 - 0:23.0	MIA	Haslem 17' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	61 13.5%	69 86.5%
Q3 - 0:45.0	CHA	Haslem STEAL (1 STL)	61 16.3%	67 83.7%
Q3 - 1:01	MIA	Cook 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Chalmers 10 AST)	61 19.3%	67 80.7%
Q3 - 1:24	CHA	Diaw Layup (5 PTS) (Diop 1 AST)	61 22.9%	65 77.1%
Q3 - 1:38	MIA	Marion Finger Roll Layup (8 PTS)	59 19.3%	65 80.7%
Q3 - 1:39	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	59 22.9%	63 77.1%
Q3 - 1:40	MIA	MISS Cook 3PT Jump Shot	59 25.1%	63 74.9%
Q3 - 1:53	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	59 22.9%	63 77.1%
Q3 - 1:54	CHA	MISS Diop 8' Jump Shot	59 23.9%	63 76.1%
Q3 - 2:08	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	59 26.6%	63 73.4%
Q3 - 2:09	MIA	MISS Marion 6' Jump Shot	59 25.5%	63 74.5%
Q3 - 2:12	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	59 23.1%	63 76.9%
Q3 - 2:14	MIA	MISS Marion Driving Layup	59 25.5%	63 74.5%
Q3 - 2:29	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	59 23.1%	63 76.9%
Q3 - 2:30	CHA	MISS Martin 14' Jump Shot	59 24.1%	63 75.9%
Q3 - 2:43	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	59 26.5%	63 73.5%
Q3 - 2:44	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	59 25.5%	63 74.5%
Q3 - 3:07	CHA	Diop 4' Hook Shot (6 PTS) (Howard 3 AST)	59 23.3%	63 76.7%
Q3 - 3:25	MIA	Chalmers 9' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	57 20.4%	63 79.6%
Q3 - 3:31	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	57 23.3%	61 76.7%
Q3 - 3:34	CHA	MISS Diaw 5' Jump Hook Shot	57 24.3%	61 75.7%
Q3 - 3:46	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	57 26.9%	61 73.1%
Q3 - 3:47	CHA	MISS Howard Layup	57 24.3%	61 75.7%
Q3 - 4:04	MIA	Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	57 27.2%	61 72.8%
Q3 - 4:14	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	57 34.0%	58 66.0%
Q3 - 4:15	MIA	MISS Wade 16' Jump Shot	57 37.2%	58 62.8%
Q3 - 4:35	CHA	Howard Tip Shot (12 PTS)	57 34.0%	58 66.0%
Q3 - 4:36	CHA	Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	55 30.8%	58 69.2%
Q3 - 4:37	CHA	MISS Diaw 19' Jump Shot	55 27.9%	58 72.1%
Q3 - 4:56	MIA	Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)	55 30.8%	58 69.2%
Q3 - 5:04	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	55 37.6%	55 62.4%
Q3 - 5:05	CHA	MISS Felton Driving Layup	55 38.9%	55 61.1%
Q3 - 5:25	MIA	Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Chalmers 9 AST)	55 42.1%	55 57.9%
Q3 - 5:41	CHA	Okafor Layup (8 PTS) (Howard 2 AST)	55 49.9%	52 50.1%
Q3 - 5:59	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (15 PTS)	53 46.3%	52 53.7%
Q3 - 6:18	CHA	Augustin 24' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)	53 49.3%	50 50.7%
Q3 - 6:35	MIA	Haslem Foul Turnover (P1.T7)	50 41.6%	50 58.4%
Q3 - 6:46	CHA	Okafor Layup (6 PTS) (Felton 9 AST)	50 37.5%	50 62.5%
Q3 - 7:06	MIA	Wade Alley Oop Dunk (13 PTS) (Chalmers 8 AST)	48 33.7%	50 66.3%
Q3 - 7:15	CHA	Howard Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	48 37.1%	48 62.9%
Q3 - 7:15	CHA	MISS Howard Free Throw 1 of 2	47 36.4%	48 63.6%
Q3 - 7:27	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)	47 37.2%	48 62.8%
Q3 - 7:27	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	47 38.0%	47 62.0%
Q3 - 7:43	CHA	Augustin 24' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Felton 8 AST)	47 37.1%	47 62.9%
Q3 - 7:51	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	44 30.4%	47 69.6%
Q3 - 7:53	MIA	MISS Wade Driving Layup	44 29.3%	47 70.7%
Q3 - 8:14	CHA	Bobcats Turnover: Shot Clock (T#12)	44 27.0%	47 73.0%
Q3 - 8:14	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	44 30.4%	47 69.6%
Q3 - 8:15	CHA	Magloire BLOCK (2 BLK)	44 28.0%	47 72.0%
Q3 - 8:38	MIA	Wade Traveling Turnover (P2.T6)	44 30.3%	47 69.7%
Q3 - 8:58	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	44 27.0%	47 73.0%
Q3 - 8:59	CHA	MISS Felton 19' Jump Shot	44 28.0%	47 72.0%
Q3 - 9:06	CHA	Augustin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	44 30.3%	47 69.7%
Q3 - 9:07	MIA	MISS Marion 3PT Jump Shot	44 29.3%	47 70.7%
Q3 - 9:21	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	44 27.2%	47 72.8%
Q3 - 9:22	CHA	MISS Augustin 19' Jump Shot	44 28.1%	47 71.9%
Q3 - 9:26	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	44 30.3%	47 69.7%
Q3 - 9:27	CHA	MISS Felton 3PT Jump Shot	44 28.1%	47 71.9%
Q3 - 9:48	MIA	Marion 15' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Chalmers 7 AST)	44 30.3%	47 69.7%
Q3 - 10:16	CHA	Augustin Reverse Layup (14 PTS) (Felton 7 AST)	44 33.3%	45 66.7%
Q3 - 10:20	MIA	Chalmers Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T5)	42 30.3%	45 69.7%
Q3 - 10:27	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	42 27.3%	45 72.7%
Q3 - 10:28	CHA	Magloire BLOCK (1 BLK)	42 28.2%	45 71.8%
Q3 - 10:39	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	42 30.3%	45 69.7%
Q3 - 10:40	MIA	MISS Marion 8' Jump Shot	42 29.3%	45 70.7%
Q3 - 10:44	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	42 27.3%	45 72.7%
Q3 - 10:45	MIA	MISS Wade 15' Jump Shot	42 29.3%	45 70.7%
Q3 - 10:49	CHA	Wade STEAL (4 STL)	42 27.3%	45 72.7%
Q3 - 10:51	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	42 30.3%	45 69.7%
Q3 - 10:52	MIA	MISS Haslem 14' Jump Shot	42 29.3%	45 70.7%
Q3 - 11:15	CHA	Augustin 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)	42 27.4%	45 72.6%
Q3 - 11:37	MIA	Magloire Layup (4 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)	39 22.4%	45 77.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	CHA		39 24.7%	43 75.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	Chalmers 10' Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS)	39 27.5%	43 72.5%
Q2 - 0:07.0	CHA	Augustin 8' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	39 30.9%	41 69.1%
Q2 - 0:29.0	MIA	Haslem Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)	37 27.4%	41 72.6%
Q2 - 0:33.0	CHA	Wade STEAL (3 STL)	37 30.8%	39 69.2%
Q2 - 0:37.0	MIA	Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	37 33.1%	39 66.9%
Q2 - 0:44.0	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	37 30.8%	39 69.2%
Q2 - 0:45.0	CHA	MISS Felton Running Layup	37 31.5%	39 68.5%
Q2 - 0:59.0	MIA	Haslem 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Chalmers 6 AST)	37 33.1%	39 66.9%
Q2 - 1:10	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	37 36.8%	37 63.2%
Q2 - 1:11	CHA	MISS Felton 24' 3PT Jump Shot	37 37.5%	37 62.5%
Q2 - 1:16	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	37 39.0%	37 61.0%
Q2 - 1:18	CHA	MISS Howard Free Throw 2 of 2	37 37.1%	37 62.9%
Q2 - 1:18	CHA	Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	37 39.3%	37 60.7%
Q2 - 1:34	MIA	Chalmers 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	36 36.0%	37 64.0%
Q2 - 1:42	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	36 39.9%	35 60.1%
Q2 - 1:43	CHA	MISS Howard 7' Jump Hook Shot	36 40.6%	35 59.4%
Q2 - 1:55	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	36 42.2%	35 57.8%
Q2 - 1:56	MIA	MISS Wade 18' Jump Shot	36 41.5%	35 58.5%
Q2 - 2:11	MIA	HEAT Rebound	36 39.0%	35 61.0%
Q2 - 2:11	CHA	MISS Augustin 3PT Jump Shot	36 40.0%	35 60.0%
Q2 - 2:29	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (10 PTS)	36 42.2%	35 57.8%
Q2 - 2:44	CHA	Augustin 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	36 45.3%	33 54.7%
Q2 - 2:58	MIA	Wade 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	34 42.2%	33 57.8%
Q2 - 3:12	CHA	Diaw Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	34 44.7%	31 55.3%
Q2 - 3:24	MIA	Wade Slam Dunk (6 PTS) (Chalmers 5 AST)	34 48.3%	31 51.7%
Q2 - 3:26	CHA	Chalmers STEAL (1 STL)	34 50.9%	29 49.1%
Q2 - 3:45	CHA	Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	34 54.5%	29 45.5%
Q2 - 3:46	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 2	34 54.1%	29 45.9%
Q2 - 3:46	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	34 52.0%	29 48.0%
Q2 - 4:01	CHA	Howard 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)	34 50.4%	29 49.6%
Q2 - 4:09	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	32 47.5%	29 52.5%
Q2 - 4:10	MIA	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	32 46.5%	29 53.5%
Q2 - 4:24	CHA	Howard Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	32 44.3%	29 55.7%
Q2 - 4:46	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	32 47.6%	29 52.4%
Q2 - 4:47	MIA	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	32 46.6%	29 53.4%
Q2 - 5:11	CHA	Okafor Alley Oop Layup (4 PTS) (Felton 6 AST)	32 44.3%	29 55.7%
Q2 - 5:16	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	30 41.3%	29 58.7%
Q2 - 5:17	MIA	MISS Wade Reverse Layup	30 40.4%	29 59.6%
Q2 - 5:26	CHA	Wade STEAL (2 STL)	30 38.5%	29 61.5%
Q2 - 5:37	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	30 41.3%	29 58.7%
Q2 - 5:38	CHA	MISS Diaw 3PT Jump Shot	30 39.3%	29 60.7%
Q2 - 5:48	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	30 41.3%	29 58.7%
Q2 - 5:49	MIA	MISS Quinn Driving Layup	30 40.4%	29 59.6%
Q2 - 6:12	CHA	Martin Foul Turnover (P1.T5)	30 38.0%	29 62.0%
Q2 - 6:32	MIA	Cook 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Quinn 2 AST)	30 41.3%	29 58.7%
Q2 - 6:56	CHA	Singletary 17' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Felton 5 AST)	30 46.5%	26 53.5%
Q2 - 7:06	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 43.5%	26 56.5%
Q2 - 7:07	MIA	MISS Beasley 15' Jump Shot	28 42.7%	26 57.3%
Q2 - 7:22	CHA	Diop 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T4)	28 40.7%	26 59.3%
Q2 - 7:42	MIA	Beasley Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	28 43.6%	26 56.4%
Q2 - 7:50	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 40.7%	26 59.3%
Q2 - 7:51	CHA	MISS Felton 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 41.6%	26 58.4%
Q2 - 8:18	MIA	Beasley Layup (4 PTS)	28 43.1%	26 56.9%
Q2 - 8:37	MIA	HEAT Rebound	28 45.9%	24 54.1%
Q2 - 8:37	CHA	MISS Felton 24' 3PT Jump Shot	28 46.7%	24 53.3%
Q2 - 9:00	MIA	Jones 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	28 48.6%	24 51.4%
Q2 - 9:24	CHA	Singletary 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Felton 4 AST)	28 50.6%	22 49.4%
Q2 - 9:44	MIA	Quinn 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	25 45.3%	22 54.7%
Q2 - 10:04	CHA	Mohammed Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T3)	25 47.6%	20 52.4%
Q2 - 10:10	CHA	Singletary REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 50.3%	20 49.7%
Q2 - 10:11	MIA	MISS Beasley 19' Jump Shot	25 49.5%	20 50.5%
Q2 - 10:28	CHA	Martin 17' Jump Shot (3 PTS)	25 47.6%	20 52.4%
Q2 - 10:32	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	23 45.1%	20 54.9%
Q2 - 10:34	CHA	MISS Martin Free Throw 2 of 2	23 42.8%	20 57.2%
Q2 - 10:34	CHA	Martin Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	23 44.4%	20 55.6%
Q2 - 10:38	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	22 42.5%	20 57.5%
Q2 - 10:39	CHA	Beasley BLOCK (1 BLK)	22 40.7%	20 59.3%
Q2 - 10:46	CHA	Augustin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	22 42.5%	20 57.5%
Q2 - 10:47	MIA	MISS Quinn 24' 3PT Jump Shot	22 41.7%	20 58.3%
Q2 - 11:14	CHA	Diop Tip Shot (4 PTS)	22 39.8%	20 60.2%
Q2 - 11:15	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	20 37.4%	20 62.6%
Q2 - 11:16	CHA	MISS Mohammed 3' Jump Shot	20 35.7%	20 64.3%
Q2 - 11:19	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	20 37.4%	20 62.6%
Q2 - 11:20	CHA	MISS Mohammed 10' Jump Shot	20 35.7%	20 64.3%
Q2 - 11:38	MIA	Quinn 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Beasley 1 AST)	20 37.4%	20 62.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA		20 39.8%	18 60.2%
Q1 - 0:21.0	CHA	Mohammed 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)	20 39.6%	18 60.4%
Q1 - 0:40.0	MIA	Beasley 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)	18 36.8%	18 63.2%
Q1 - 0:46.0	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 39.6%	16 60.4%
Q1 - 0:47.0	CHA	MISS Diaw 20' Jump Shot	18 40.2%	16 59.8%
Q1 - 1:00	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	18 41.5%	16 58.5%
Q1 - 1:01	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	18 40.6%	16 59.4%
Q1 - 1:30	CHA	Augustin Driving Finger Roll Layup (5 PTS)	18 39.5%	16 60.5%
Q1 - 1:45	MIA	Anthony 2' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	16 36.5%	16 63.5%
Q1 - 2:06	CHA	Diop Dunk (2 PTS) (Felton 3 AST)	16 39.2%	14 60.8%
Q1 - 2:19	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 36.7%	14 63.3%
Q1 - 2:20	MIA	MISS Chalmers 17' Jump Shot	14 36.1%	14 63.9%
Q1 - 2:45	CHA	Diaw 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Augustin 3 AST)	14 34.9%	14 65.1%
Q1 - 3:09	MIA	Wade Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS)	11 30.6%	14 69.4%
Q1 - 3:17	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	11 32.6%	12 67.4%
Q1 - 3:18	CHA	MISS Augustin 9' Jump Shot	11 33.2%	12 66.8%
Q1 - 3:33	MIA	Chalmers Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T2)	11 34.6%	12 65.4%
Q1 - 3:49	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	11 32.6%	12 67.4%
Q1 - 3:50	CHA	MISS Okafor 8' Jump Shot	11 33.2%	12 66.8%
Q1 - 4:09	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	11 34.4%	12 65.6%
Q1 - 4:10	MIA	MISS Magloire Free Throw 2 of 2	11 34.1%	12 65.9%
Q1 - 4:10	MIA	MISS Magloire Free Throw 1 of 2	11 33.1%	12 66.9%
Q1 - 4:30	CHA	Okafor 5' Jump Hook Shot (2 PTS)	11 32.3%	12 67.7%
Q1 - 4:47	MIA	Marion 8' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)	9 30.5%	12 69.5%
Q1 - 5:02	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 32.3%	10 67.7%
Q1 - 5:03	CHA	MISS Felton 17' Jump Shot	9 33.0%	10 67.0%
Q1 - 5:21	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	9 34.5%	10 65.5%
Q1 - 5:22	MIA	MISS Wade 18' Jump Shot	9 33.8%	10 66.2%
Q1 - 5:36	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	9 32.3%	10 67.7%
Q1 - 5:37	CHA	Wade BLOCK (1 BLK)	9 32.9%	10 67.1%
Q1 - 5:56	MIA	Magloire Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	9 34.5%	10 65.5%
Q1 - 6:06	CHA	Wade STEAL (1 STL)	9 32.2%	10 67.8%
Q1 - 6:25	MIA	Haslem Layup (4 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)	9 34.1%	10 65.9%
Q1 - 6:39	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	9 36.0%	8 64.0%
Q1 - 6:40	MIA	MISS Haslem 17' Jump Shot	9 37.4%	8 62.6%
Q1 - 7:00	CHA	Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Felton 2 AST)	9 36.0%	8 64.0%
Q1 - 7:17	MIA	Wade Driving Dunk (2 PTS)	6 32.1%	8 67.9%
Q1 - 7:41	CHA	Howard 17' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Augustin 2 AST)	6 33.8%	6 66.2%
Q1 - 7:57	CHA	Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 32.1%	6 67.9%
Q1 - 7:58	MIA	MISS Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot	4 31.5%	6 68.5%
Q1 - 8:03	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	4 30.1%	6 69.9%
Q1 - 8:04	MIA	MISS Marion 19' Jump Shot	4 31.3%	6 68.7%
Q1 - 8:19	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 30.1%	6 69.9%
Q1 - 8:20	CHA	MISS Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot	4 30.6%	6 69.4%
Q1 - 8:40	MIA	Marion Dunk (2 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)	4 31.9%	6 68.1%
Q1 - 8:54	CHA	Felton Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	4 33.7%	4 66.3%
Q1 - 9:11	CHA	Bobcats Rebound	4 35.6%	4 64.4%
Q1 - 9:12	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	4 35.1%	4 64.9%
Q1 - 9:37	CHA	Howard 11' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Felton 1 AST)	4 33.9%	4 66.1%
Q1 - 9:54	MIA	Magloire Dunk (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)	2 32.0%	4 68.0%
Q1 - 10:15	CHA	Howard Layup (2 PTS) (Augustin 1 AST)	2 33.7%	2 66.3%
Q1 - 10:35	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 32.2%	2 67.8%
Q1 - 10:36	MIA	MISS Marion 7' Running Jump Shot	0 31.7%	2 68.3%
Q1 - 10:49	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	0 30.6%	2 69.4%
Q1 - 10:50	CHA	MISS Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot	0 31.1%	2 68.9%
Q1 - 11:15	MIA	Haslem 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)	0 32.1%	2 67.9%
Q1 - 11:34	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 33.5%	0 66.5%
Q1 - 11:35	CHA	MISS Howard 5' Jump Shot	0 34.0%	0 66.0%
Q1 - 12:00	MIA	Jump Ball Magloire vs. Okafor: Tip to Augustin	0 35.1%	0 64.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

CHA

1.05 52.3%

MIA

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CHA

53%

MIA

76%

Midrange

CHA

41%

MIA

51%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CHA

15.0

48%

71%

MIA

10.5

41%

62%

Free Throws

CHA

50%

MIA

42%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Bobcats

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Augustin	27	68%	13.5 / 20
J. Howard	14	54%	7.0 / 13
B. Diaw	10	63%	5.0 / 8
E. Okafor	10	63%	5.0 / 8
R. Felton	9	26%	4.5 / 17
D. Diop	8	67%	4.0 / 6
S. Singletary	5	125%	2.5 / 2
A. Ajinca	4	50%	2.0 / 4
C. Martin	3	50%	1.5 / 3
N. Mohammed	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Wade	22	52%	11.0 / 21
M. Chalmers	16	67%	8.0 / 12
D. Cook	16	80%	8.0 / 10
U. Haslem	14	78%	7.0 / 9
S. Marion	8	40%	4.0 / 10
C. Quinn	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Magloire	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Anthony	4	67%	2.0 / 3
M. Beasley	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Jones	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

CHA

+17

-13

MIA

-8

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CHA

1.05 52.3%

MIA

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	104.9 107.6	CHA 110.8 MIA 114.3 +3.4
Pace	88.2 90.2	CHA 87.9 +8.3 MIA 79.6
Avg. Poss. Time	16.5 16.3	CHA 16.4 +1.7 MIA 18.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	49.4% 50.0%	CHA 53.8% MIA 60.7% +6.9%
TO %	16.7% 13.1%	CHA 14.1% MIA 10.1% +4.0%
ORB %	27.8% 24.6%	CHA 22.9% MIA 24.1% +1.2%
FTrt	31.2 28.2	CHA 15.0 MIA 16.0 +1.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	60.7% 55.1%	CHA 68.4% +13.6% MIA 54.8%
STL %	7.9% 8.7%	CHA 3.6% MIA 8.3% +4.7%
BLK %	8.2% 9.2%	CHA 1.7% MIA 13.6% +11.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.0% 52.6%	CHA 52.3% MIA 57.1% +4.8%
Rim FG%	55.2% 59.5%	CHA 53.1% MIA 76.2% +23.1%
Mid FG%	40.4% 41.8%	CHA 40.7% MIA 51.4% +10.7%
3P %	36.6% 35.7%	CHA 47.6% +6.4% MIA 41.2%
FT %	74.0% 75.4%	CHA 50.0% +8.3% MIA 41.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	40.0% 30.3%	CHA 40.0% +12.0% MIA 28.0%
Mid Att. %	38.8% 45.2%	CHA 33.8% +15.6% MIA 49.3%
3P Att. %	21.3% 24.5%	CHA 26.3% +3.6% MIA 22.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	CHA	MIA
Possessions	83	84
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.3
Points	92	96
Rebounds	30	34
Assists	26	23
Steals	3	7
Blocks	1	8
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	8 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (9)	7 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	22 (5)	27 (2)
Field Goals	38-80	42-75
At-the-Rim FG	17-32	16-21
Midrange FG	11-27	19-37
2-Point FG	28-59	35-58
3-Point FG	10-21	7-17
Free Throws	6-12	5-12
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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25 Charlotte Bobcats

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Boris Diaw F · 6'8" 250 · 27	43.0	10	63%	5	5	0	0	3	1	0	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Raymond Felton G · 6'1" 205 · 25	42.3	9	26%	2	11	2	1	3	2	0	2	0-1	0%	3-11	27%	1-6	17%
D.J. Augustin G · 6'0" 183 · 21	38.9	27	68%	2	6	1	0	2	3	0	2	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	6-11	55%
Emeka Okafor C · 6'10" 255 · 26	30.7	10	63%	8	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Juwan Howard F · 6'9" 250 · 36	30.6	14	54%	3	3	0	0	1	4	1	2	2-5	40%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
DeSagana Diop C · 7'0" 280 · 27	25.7	8	67%	6	1	0	0	1	1	4	2	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Cartier Martin F · 6'7" 220 · 24	14.7	3	50%	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Alexis Ajinca C · 7'2" 248 · 21	5.5	4	50%	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Sean Singletary G · 6'0" 185 · 23	4.4	5	125%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 31	4.3	2	25%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Sean May C-F · 6'9" 266 · 25
Vladimir Radmanovic F · 6'10" 235 · 28
Gerald Wallace #3 · F · 6'7" 220 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Raja Bell #19 · G · 6'5" 210 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	52%	30	26	3	1	13	0	8	22	6-12	50%	28-59	47%	10-21	48%

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25 Charlotte Bobcats

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Boris Diaw F · 6'8" 250 · 27	43.0	10	63%	5	5	0	0	3	1	0	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-3	67%
Raymond Felton G · 6'1" 205 · 25	42.3	9	26%	2	11	2	1	3	2	0	2	0-1	0%	3-11	27%	1-6	17%
D.J. Augustin G · 6'0" 183 · 21	38.9	27	68%	2	6	1	0	2	3	0	2	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	6-11	55%
Emeka Okafor C · 6'10" 255 · 26	30.7	10	63%	8	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Juwan Howard F · 6'9" 250 · 36	30.6	14	54%	3	3	0	0	1	4	1	2	2-5	40%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
DeSagana Diop C · 7'0" 280 · 27	25.7	8	67%	6	1	0	0	1	1	4	2	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Cartier Martin F · 6'7" 220 · 24	14.7	3	50%	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Alexis Ajinca C · 7'2" 248 · 21	5.5	4	50%	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Sean Singletary G · 6'0" 185 · 23	4.4	5	125%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 31	4.3	2	25%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Sean May C-F · 6'9" 266 · 25
Vladimir Radmanovic F · 6'10" 235 · 28
Gerald Wallace #3 · F · 6'7" 220 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Raja Bell #19 · G · 6'5" 210 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	52%	30	26	3	1	13	0	8	22	6-12	50%	28-59	47%	10-21	48%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 23	35.1	16	67%	2	13	2	0	2	1	0	2	2-4	50%	4-6	67%	2-4	50%
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 29	35.0	14	78%	8	1	1	0	1	2	1	7	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Shawn Marion F · 6'7" 228 · 31	33.5	8	40%	10	0	0	1	0	1	3	7	0-0	-	4-9	44%	0-1	0%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 27	31.6	22	52%	4	4	4	1	2	0	1	3	1-4	25%	9-17	53%	1-2	50%
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 31	14.3	4	67%	3	0	0	2	1	2	1	2	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27	33.8	4	67%	3	1	0	2	0	3	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 22	18.0	16	80%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-7	57%
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 20	13.0	4	50%	2	1	0	2	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Chris Quinn G · 6'2" 175 · 25	12.9	6	50%	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
James Jones G-F · 6'8" 218 · 28	12.9	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Yakhouba Diawara F-G · 6'7" 225 · 26
Mark Blount C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33
Marcus Banks #5 · G · 6'2" 205 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dorell Wright #1 · F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	57%	34	23	7	8	8	0	7	27	5-12	42%	35-58	60%	7-17	41%

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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE