Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	7	Nuggets	51%	97	99
	14	Heat	49%	96	82

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
DEN	111.2	89	87.4
MIA	94.3	87	88.7

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+11

-10

MIA

+12

-19

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.10 55.0%

MIA

1.02 51.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA
Q4 - 0:00.0	DEN		99 100%	82 0%
Q4 - 0:14.0	DEN	Petro REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 0:15.0	MIA	MISS Jones 21' Jump Shot	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 0:23.0	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 0:24.0	DEN	MISS Smith 20' Jump Shot	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 0:38.0	DEN	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 0:39.0	MIA	MISS Beasley 20' Jump Shot	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 0:59.0	DEN	Petro 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	99 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 1:20	MIA	Beasley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)	97 99.9%	82 0.1%
Q4 - 1:35	MIA	Diawara REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 1:37	DEN	MISS Petro 15' Turnaround Jump Shot	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:02	MIA	Haslem Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T19)	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:03	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:04	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:09	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:11	DEN	MISS Carter 21' Jump Shot	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:31	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:33	MIA	MISS Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 2:48	DEN	Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS)	97 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 3:08	MIA	Jump Ball Wade vs. Martin: Tip to Nene	94 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 3:15	DEN	Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Nene 3 AST)	94 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 3:38	MIA	Haslem Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T17)	91 99.2%	79 0.8%
Q4 - 3:55	DEN	Carter Layup (8 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	91 98.9%	79 1.1%
Q4 - 4:01	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	89 98.5%	79 1.5%
Q4 - 4:02	MIA	MISS Chalmers Driving Layup	89 98.3%	79 1.7%
Q4 - 4:10	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	89 97.8%	79 2.2%
Q4 - 4:11	DEN	MISS Anthony 20' Turnaround Jump Shot	89 98.1%	79 1.9%
Q4 - 4:28	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	89 98.6%	79 1.4%
Q4 - 4:29	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	89 98.4%	79 1.6%
Q4 - 4:48	DEN	Cook STEAL (1 STL)	89 97.9%	79 2.1%
Q4 - 5:13	MIA	Cook Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T16)	89 97.5%	79 2.5%
Q4 - 5:24	DEN	Billups Driving Layup (17 PTS)	89 96.5%	79 3.5%
Q4 - 5:33	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	87 95.3%	79 4.7%
Q4 - 5:34	MIA	MISS Marion 6' Jump Shot	87 94.8%	79 5.2%
Q4 - 5:42	MIA	HEAT Rebound	87 93.5%	79 6.5%
Q4 - 5:43	MIA	MISS Marion 25' 3PT Jump Shot	87 94.8%	79 5.2%
Q4 - 6:06	DEN	Kleiza Traveling Turnover (P1.T9)	87 91.6%	79 8.4%
Q4 - 6:23	MIA	Wade Reverse Layup (33 PTS)	87 93.8%	79 6.2%
Q4 - 6:30	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	87 95.3%	77 4.7%
Q4 - 6:31	MIA	MISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot	87 96.2%	77 3.8%
Q4 - 6:43	DEN	Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Carter 5 AST)	87 95.3%	77 4.7%
Q4 - 7:00	MIA	Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot (31 PTS)	84 91.9%	77 8.1%
Q4 - 7:28	DEN	Billups 3' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Carter 4 AST)	84 94.1%	74 5.9%
Q4 - 7:48	MIA	Chalmers Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T15)	82 92.6%	74 7.4%
Q4 - 7:54	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	82 90.2%	74 9.8%
Q4 - 7:55	DEN	Anthony BLOCK (5 BLK)	82 91.0%	74 9.0%
Q4 - 8:07	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	82 91.1%	74 8.9%
Q4 - 8:08	MIA	MISS Beasley Layup	82 90.5%	74 9.5%
Q4 - 8:19	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	82 89.0%	74 11.0%
Q4 - 8:20	DEN	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot	82 89.7%	74 10.3%
Q4 - 8:43	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	82 91.2%	74 8.8%
Q4 - 8:44	MIA	MISS Cook 24' 3PT Jump Shot	82 90.6%	74 9.4%
Q4 - 8:58	DEN	Smith 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Carter 3 AST)	82 89.0%	74 11.0%
Q4 - 9:17	MIA	Beasley 4' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	79 81.1%	74 18.9%
Q4 - 9:18	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	79 84.7%	72 15.3%
Q4 - 9:19	MIA	MISS Beasley 7' Jump Shot	79 86.7%	72 13.3%
Q4 - 9:38	DEN	Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)	79 84.8%	72 15.2%
Q4 - 10:02	MIA	Haslem Layup (6 PTS) (Beasley 1 AST)	76 76.0%	72 24.0%
Q4 - 10:16	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	76 80.0%	70 20.0%
Q4 - 10:17	DEN	MISS Kleiza 25' 3PT Jump Shot	76 81.0%	70 19.0%
Q4 - 10:31	MIA	Haslem 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Cook 1 AST)	76 83.3%	70 16.7%
Q4 - 10:52	MIA	Quinn REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	76 86.3%	68 13.7%
Q4 - 10:53	MIA	MISS Beasley 20' Jump Shot	76 88.1%	68 11.9%
Q4 - 11:15	DEN	Carter 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Kleiza 1 AST)	76 85.1%	68 14.9%
Q4 - 11:31	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	74 82.0%	68 18.0%
Q4 - 11:33	DEN	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot	74 79.9%	68 20.1%
Q4 - 11:47	MIA	Quinn 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Chalmers 5 AST)	74 82.1%	68 17.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN		74 87.7%	65 12.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	74 89.7%	65 10.3%
Q3 - 0:00.0	DEN	MISS Smith 30' 3PT Jump Shot	74 88.3%	65 11.7%
Q3 - 0:05.0	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	74 88.5%	65 11.5%
Q3 - 0:06.0	MIA	MISS Cook 18' Jump Shot	74 87.9%	65 12.1%
Q3 - 0:33.0	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	74 86.6%	65 13.4%
Q3 - 0:33.0	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)	73 86.2%	65 13.8%
Q3 - 0:48.0	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	72 83.8%	65 16.2%
Q3 - 0:49.0	MIA	MISS Quinn 24' 3PT Jump Shot	72 83.0%	65 17.0%
Q3 - 1:16	DEN	Kleiza Driving Layup (4 PTS)	72 80.1%	65 19.9%
Q3 - 1:25	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	70 76.5%	65 23.5%
Q3 - 1:26	MIA	MISS Wade 20' Jump Shot	70 75.5%	65 24.5%
Q3 - 1:35	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	70 73.1%	65 26.9%
Q3 - 1:36	DEN	MISS Kleiza 3PT Jump Shot	70 74.2%	65 25.8%
Q3 - 1:56	MIA	Marion Dunk (14 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)	70 76.5%	65 23.5%
Q3 - 2:16	DEN	Kleiza Reverse Layup (2 PTS)	70 78.9%	63 21.1%
Q3 - 2:34	MIA	Quinn 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	68 75.6%	63 24.4%
Q3 - 2:53	DEN	Martin Putback Dunk (18 PTS)	68 81.9%	60 18.1%
Q3 - 2:55	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	66 78.9%	60 21.1%
Q3 - 2:57	DEN	MISS Anthony Driving Layup	66 76.7%	60 23.3%
Q3 - 3:08	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	66 78.3%	60 21.7%
Q3 - 3:09	DEN	Anthony BLOCK (4 BLK)	66 75.9%	60 24.1%
Q3 - 3:11	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	66 78.3%	60 21.7%
Q3 - 3:13	DEN	MISS Billups 3PT Jump Shot	66 75.9%	60 24.1%
Q3 - 3:34	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (28 PTS)	66 78.3%	60 21.7%
Q3 - 3:34	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	66 78.9%	59 21.1%
Q3 - 3:56	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)	66 78.1%	59 21.9%
Q3 - 3:56	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)	65 77.6%	59 22.4%
Q3 - 4:04	MIA	Anthony Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T14)	64 74.5%	59 25.5%
Q3 - 4:15	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	64 70.5%	59 29.5%
Q3 - 4:16	DEN	MISS Carter 11' Jump Bank Shot	64 71.8%	59 28.2%
Q3 - 4:43	MIA	Jump Ball Wade vs. Martin: Tip to Billups	64 74.6%	59 25.4%
Q3 - 4:49	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	64 70.5%	59 29.5%
Q3 - 4:51	DEN	MISS Kleiza 7' Jump Shot	64 71.8%	59 28.2%
Q3 - 5:13	MIA	Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS)	64 73.4%	59 26.6%
Q3 - 5:22	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	64 79.1%	56 20.9%
Q3 - 5:23	DEN	MISS Anthony 16' Jump Shot	64 80.0%	56 20.0%
Q3 - 5:43	MIA	Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T12)	64 82.1%	56 17.9%
Q3 - 5:54	DEN	Billups Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	64 79.1%	56 20.9%
Q3 - 6:04	MIA	Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Marion 1 AST)	64 81.2%	56 18.8%
Q3 - 6:12	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	64 85.5%	53 14.5%
Q3 - 6:13	DEN	MISS Billups 19' Turnaround Jump Shot	64 86.1%	53 13.9%
Q3 - 6:27	DEN	Kleiza REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	64 87.5%	53 12.5%
Q3 - 6:28	MIA	MISS Wade 20' Jump Shot	64 86.9%	53 13.1%
Q3 - 6:35	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	64 85.5%	53 14.5%
Q3 - 6:36	DEN	MISS Kleiza 3PT Jump Shot	64 86.2%	53 13.8%
Q3 - 6:59	MIA	Wade 21' Jump Shot (27 PTS)	64 87.6%	53 12.4%
Q3 - 7:12	DEN	Anthony Driving Layup (15 PTS)	64 88.1%	51 11.9%
Q3 - 7:28	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 1 (25 PTS)	62 86.5%	51 13.5%
Q3 - 7:32	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	62 89.6%	48 10.4%
Q3 - 7:35	DEN	MISS Anthony 13' Jump Shot	62 90.1%	48 9.9%
Q3 - 8:03	MIA	Chalmers Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T11)	62 90.6%	48 9.4%
Q3 - 8:10	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	62 89.1%	48 10.9%
Q3 - 8:11	DEN	MISS Martin 21' Jump Shot	62 89.6%	48 10.4%
Q3 - 8:26	MIA	Anthony Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T10)	62 90.6%	48 9.4%
Q3 - 8:41	MIA	HEAT Rebound	62 89.1%	48 10.9%
Q3 - 8:42	DEN	MISS Jones 12' Jump Shot	62 89.6%	48 10.4%
Q3 - 9:01	MIA	Marion 13' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	62 90.1%	48 9.9%
Q3 - 9:24	DEN	Billups Driving Layup (10 PTS)	62 91.3%	46 8.7%
Q3 - 9:36	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)	60 90.1%	46 9.9%
Q3 - 9:36	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)	60 90.4%	45 9.6%
Q3 - 9:58	DEN	Billups 14' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Nene 2 AST)	60 91.4%	44 8.6%
Q3 - 10:13	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	58 89.5%	44 10.5%
Q3 - 10:14	DEN	MISS Martin 8' Hook Shot	58 88.5%	44 11.5%
Q3 - 10:28	MIA	Wade 10' Jump Bank Shot (20 PTS)	58 89.5%	44 10.5%
Q3 - 10:51	DEN	Billups Driving Layup (6 PTS)	58 90.8%	42 9.2%
Q3 - 11:15	MIA	Chalmers 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Haslem 1 AST)	56 89.0%	42 11.0%
Q3 - 11:34	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	56 90.2%	40 9.8%
Q3 - 11:35	DEN	MISS Anthony 25' 3PT Jump Shot	56 90.6%	40 9.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN		56 91.4%	40 8.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	56 91.4%	40 8.6%
Q2 - 0:02.0	MIA	MISS Wade 19' Fadeaway Jumper	56 90.4%	40 9.6%
Q2 - 0:15.0	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	56 89.9%	40 10.1%
Q2 - 0:16.0	DEN	MISS Kleiza 24' 3PT Jump Shot	56 90.1%	40 9.9%
Q2 - 0:31.0	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (18 PTS)	56 90.8%	40 9.2%
Q2 - 0:38.0	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	56 92.1%	38 7.9%
Q2 - 0:39.0	DEN	MISS Anthony 15' Jump Shot	56 92.3%	38 7.7%
Q2 - 1:01	MIA	Marion 12' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	56 92.4%	38 7.6%
Q2 - 1:14	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	56 93.5%	36 6.5%
Q2 - 1:14	DEN	MISS Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2	55 93.3%	36 6.7%
Q2 - 1:22	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	55 93.2%	36 6.8%
Q2 - 1:23	MIA	MISS Marion Alley Oop Dunk	55 93.1%	36 6.9%
Q2 - 1:28	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	55 92.6%	36 7.4%
Q2 - 1:29	DEN	Anthony BLOCK (3 BLK)	55 92.8%	36 7.2%
Q2 - 1:42	DEN	Andersen Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	55 93.3%	36 6.7%
Q2 - 1:45	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	52 90.3%	36 9.7%
Q2 - 1:46	MIA	MISS Wade 18' Jump Shot	52 90.1%	36 9.9%
Q2 - 1:54	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	52 89.5%	36 10.5%
Q2 - 1:55	DEN	MISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot	52 89.7%	36 10.3%
Q2 - 2:01	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	52 89.9%	36 10.1%
Q2 - 2:02	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	52 89.5%	36 10.5%
Q2 - 2:24	DEN	Martin Putback Dunk (16 PTS)	52 88.7%	36 11.3%
Q2 - 2:25	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	50 87.4%	36 12.6%
Q2 - 2:26	DEN	MISS Billups Layup	50 86.3%	36 13.7%
Q2 - 2:45	MIA	Chalmers Foul Turnover (P2.T9)	50 87.4%	36 12.6%
Q2 - 3:02	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	50 85.3%	36 14.7%
Q2 - 3:02	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	49 85.0%	36 15.0%
Q2 - 3:17	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	48 84.0%	36 16.0%
Q2 - 3:19	MIA	MISS Chalmers 5' Floating Jump Shot	48 83.4%	36 16.6%
Q2 - 3:37	DEN	Anthony Dunk (10 PTS) (Martin 2 AST)	48 81.9%	36 18.1%
Q2 - 3:55	MIA	Marion Dunk (8 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)	46 80.3%	36 19.7%
Q2 - 3:59	DEN	Anthony Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P4.T7)	46 81.9%	34 18.1%
Q2 - 4:00	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	46 84.0%	34 16.0%
Q2 - 4:01	MIA	MISS Cook 3PT Jump Shot	46 82.7%	34 17.3%
Q2 - 4:17	DEN	Smith Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS)	46 81.4%	34 18.6%
Q2 - 4:32	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	44 79.7%	34 20.3%
Q2 - 4:33	DEN	Anthony BLOCK (2 BLK)	44 78.2%	34 21.8%
Q2 - 4:51	MIA	Wade Dunk (16 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)	44 79.7%	34 20.3%
Q2 - 4:58	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	44 81.5%	32 18.5%
Q2 - 4:59	DEN	MISS Kleiza 3PT Jump Shot	44 82.1%	32 17.9%
Q2 - 5:25	MIA	Marion Layup (6 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)	44 82.8%	32 17.2%
Q2 - 5:40	DEN	Anthony Traveling Turnover (P3.T6)	44 84.5%	30 15.5%
Q2 - 5:48	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	44 85.9%	30 14.1%
Q2 - 5:49	MIA	MISS Cook 24' 3PT Jump Shot	44 85.5%	30 14.5%
Q2 - 6:07	MIA	HEAT Rebound	44 83.6%	30 16.4%
Q2 - 6:09	DEN	MISS Anthony 21' Turnaround Jump Shot	44 84.2%	30 15.8%
Q2 - 6:31	MIA	Beasley Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	44 85.4%	30 14.6%
Q2 - 6:31	MIA	Beasley Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	44 85.7%	29 14.3%
Q2 - 6:41	DEN	Carter Traveling Turnover (P1.T5)	44 86.6%	28 13.4%
Q2 - 6:42	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	44 88.1%	28 11.9%
Q2 - 6:43	DEN	MISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot	44 87.1%	28 12.9%
Q2 - 6:54	DEN	Andersen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	44 88.1%	28 11.9%
Q2 - 6:56	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 1	44 87.9%	28 12.1%
Q2 - 7:06	DEN	Nene Dunk (6 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	44 88.8%	26 11.2%
Q2 - 7:18	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	42 87.6%	26 12.4%
Q2 - 7:19	MIA	MISS Beasley 12' Jump Shot	42 87.2%	26 12.8%
Q2 - 7:37	DEN	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	42 86.3%	26 13.7%
Q2 - 7:37	DEN	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	41 86.0%	26 14.0%
Q2 - 7:43	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	40 85.0%	26 15.0%
Q2 - 7:44	MIA	MISS Wade 19' Jump Shot	40 84.5%	26 15.5%
Q2 - 7:54	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	40 83.4%	26 16.6%
Q2 - 7:55	DEN	MISS Kleiza 24' 3PT Jump Shot	40 83.9%	26 16.1%
Q2 - 8:14	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	40 84.2%	26 15.8%
Q2 - 8:15	MIA	MISS Beasley 13' Jump Shot	40 83.7%	26 16.3%
Q2 - 8:37	DEN	Andersen Dunk (4 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	40 82.7%	26 17.3%
Q2 - 8:43	MIA	Cook 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	38 81.1%	26 18.9%
Q2 - 9:04	DEN	Martin 6' Running Hook Shot (14 PTS)	38 82.1%	24 17.9%
Q2 - 9:29	MIA	Wade 16' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	36 80.5%	24 19.5%
Q2 - 9:38	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	36 82.1%	22 17.9%
Q2 - 9:39	DEN	MISS Martin 24' 3PT Jump Shot	36 82.6%	22 17.4%
Q2 - 10:07	MIA	Cook Layup (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)	36 83.1%	22 16.9%
Q2 - 10:11	DEN	Wade STEAL (2 STL)	36 84.5%	20 15.5%
Q2 - 10:24	DEN	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	36 85.9%	20 14.1%
Q2 - 10:25	MIA	MISS Beasley 21' Jump Shot	36 85.5%	20 14.5%
Q2 - 10:43	DEN	Martin Driving Layup (12 PTS)	36 84.5%	20 15.5%
Q2 - 10:57	MIA	Cook Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	34 83.2%	20 16.9%
Q2 - 11:18	DEN	Carter 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Martin 1 AST)	34 80.9%	20 19.1%
Q2 - 11:34	MIA	Cook Traveling Turnover (P1.T7)	32 79.3%	20 20.7%
Q2 - 11:48	MIA	HEAT Rebound	32 77.6%	20 22.4%
Q2 - 11:49	DEN	Anthony BLOCK (1 BLK)	32 78.1%	20 21.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	DEN		32 79.4%	20 20.6%
Q1 - 0:01.0	MIA	Quinn Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	32 78.1%	20 21.9%
Q1 - 0:01.0	MIA	Quinn Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	32 78.3%	19 21.7%
Q1 - 0:06.0	DEN	Martin Alley Oop Dunk (10 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)	32 80.2%	18 19.8%
Q1 - 0:17.0	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	30 78.2%	18 21.8%
Q1 - 0:18.0	MIA	MISS Chalmers 15' Jump Shot	30 77.8%	18 22.2%
Q1 - 0:35.0	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	30 76.9%	18 23.1%
Q1 - 0:36.0	MIA	MISS Cook 3PT Jump Shot	30 77.8%	18 22.2%
Q1 - 0:50.0	DEN	Martin Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)	30 76.9%	18 23.1%
Q1 - 0:55.0	MIA	Marion Tip Shot (4 PTS)	28 74.7%	18 25.3%
Q1 - 1:03	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	28 76.3%	16 23.7%
Q1 - 1:04	MIA	MISS Marion 15' Jump Shot	28 77.1%	16 22.9%
Q1 - 1:06	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	28 76.3%	16 23.7%
Q1 - 1:07	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	28 77.1%	16 22.9%
Q1 - 1:23	DEN	Andersen Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Billups 4 AST)	28 76.3%	16 23.7%
Q1 - 1:42	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	26 74.0%	16 26.0%
Q1 - 1:43	MIA	MISS Chalmers 19' Jump Shot	26 73.6%	16 26.4%
Q1 - 2:02	DEN	Anthony 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	26 72.1%	16 27.9%
Q1 - 2:13	MIA	Anthony Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T6)	24 69.8%	16 30.2%
Q1 - 2:17	DEN	Wade STEAL (1 STL)	24 68.2%	16 31.8%
Q1 - 2:42	MIA	Marion 7' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	24 69.9%	16 30.1%
Q1 - 2:45	MIA	Marion REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	24 72.1%	14 27.9%
Q1 - 2:46	MIA	MISS Marion 10' Jump Shot	24 73.2%	14 26.8%
Q1 - 2:59	DEN	Carter Layup (2 PTS)	24 72.1%	14 27.9%
Q1 - 3:03	MIA	Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T5)	22 70.0%	14 30.0%
Q1 - 3:10	DEN	Martin 17' Floating Jump Shot (6 PTS)	22 68.1%	14 31.9%
Q1 - 3:39	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	20 66.0%	14 34.0%
Q1 - 3:39	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	20 66.4%	13 33.6%
Q1 - 3:39	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	20 68.1%	12 31.9%
Q1 - 3:40	MIA	MISS Chalmers 10' Fadeaway Jumper	20 69.4%	12 30.6%
Q1 - 3:53	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS)	20 68.1%	12 31.9%
Q1 - 4:04	DEN	Billups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 63.5%	12 36.5%
Q1 - 4:05	MIA	MISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot	17 62.8%	12 37.2%
Q1 - 4:10	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	17 61.3%	12 38.7%
Q1 - 4:12	MIA	MISS Anthony Dunk	17 62.8%	12 37.2%
Q1 - 4:32	DEN	Martin Slam Dunk (4 PTS) (Billups 3 AST)	17 61.3%	12 38.7%
Q1 - 4:43	DEN	Martin REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	15 59.3%	12 40.7%
Q1 - 4:44	DEN	MISS Billups 26' 3PT Jump Shot	15 57.7%	12 42.3%
Q1 - 4:58	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	15 59.3%	12 40.7%
Q1 - 4:58	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	15 59.8%	11 40.2%
Q1 - 5:14	DEN	Billups 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)	15 58.7%	11 41.3%
Q1 - 5:34	MIA	Marion Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	13 56.9%	11 43.1%
Q1 - 5:39	DEN	Chalmers STEAL (1 STL)	13 54.5%	11 45.5%
Q1 - 5:48	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	13 56.9%	11 43.1%
Q1 - 5:49	MIA	MISS Chalmers 11' Running Jump Shot	13 56.1%	11 43.9%
Q1 - 5:58	MIA	HEAT Rebound	13 54.5%	11 45.5%
Q1 - 5:59	DEN	MISS Anthony 24' 3PT Jump Shot	13 55.2%	11 44.8%
Q1 - 6:12	DEN	Nene REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	13 56.7%	11 43.3%
Q1 - 6:13	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 2 of 2	13 56.4%	11 43.6%
Q1 - 6:13	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	13 55.0%	11 45.0%
Q1 - 6:27	DEN	Anthony 21' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Billups 2 AST)	13 56.6%	10 43.4%
Q1 - 6:39	MIA	Magloire Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	11 54.6%	10 45.4%
Q1 - 6:51	DEN	Nene Dunk (4 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)	11 52.4%	10 47.6%
Q1 - 7:07	MIA	Wade 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	9 50.4%	10 49.6%
Q1 - 7:32	DEN	Martin Layup (2 PTS)	9 52.3%	8 47.7%
Q1 - 7:57	MIA	Wade Dunk (4 PTS)	7 50.4%	8 49.6%
Q1 - 7:58	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	7 52.3%	6 47.7%
Q1 - 7:59	MIA	MISS Wade Layup	7 53.9%	6 46.1%
Q1 - 8:10	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 52.4%	6 47.6%
Q1 - 8:11	DEN	Magloire BLOCK (1 BLK)	7 53.1%	6 46.9%
Q1 - 8:27	MIA	Chalmers 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	7 54.5%	6 45.5%
Q1 - 8:37	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	7 56.6%	4 43.4%
Q1 - 8:38	DEN	MISS Anthony Free Throw 2 of 2	7 56.9%	4 43.1%
Q1 - 8:38	DEN	Anthony Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	7 58.3%	4 41.7%
Q1 - 8:53	MIA	Wade Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)	6 56.6%	4 43.4%
Q1 - 8:55	DEN	Haslem STEAL (1 STL)	6 54.5%	4 45.5%
Q1 - 9:03	DEN	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 56.6%	4 43.4%
Q1 - 9:04	MIA	MISS Marion 7' Turnaround Jump Shot	6 56.0%	4 44.0%
Q1 - 9:31	DEN	Jones Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Nene 1 AST)	6 54.8%	4 45.2%
Q1 - 9:50	MIA	Wade 8' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 52.6%	4 47.4%
Q1 - 10:15	DEN	Billups 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 54.4%	2 45.6%
Q1 - 10:21	MIA	Chalmers Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	2 52.6%	2 47.4%
Q1 - 10:32	DEN	Nene 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	2 50.7%	2 49.3%
Q1 - 10:36	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	0 49.0%	2 51.0%
Q1 - 10:37	DEN	MISS Anthony 9' Hook Shot	0 47.6%	2 52.4%
Q1 - 10:59	MIA	Haslem 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)	0 49.0%	2 51.0%
Q1 - 11:18	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 50.7%	0 49.3%
Q1 - 11:19	DEN	MISS Martin 21' Jump Shot	0 51.2%	0 48.8%
Q1 - 11:36	DEN	Nuggets Rebound	0 52.4%	0 47.6%
Q1 - 11:37	MIA	MISS Wade 3PT Jump Shot	0 51.9%	0 48.1%
Q1 - 12:00	MIA	Jump Ball Magloire vs. Nene: Tip to Chalmers	0 50.6%	0 49.4%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.10 55.0%

MIA

1.02 51.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

81%

MIA

67%

Midrange

DEN

38%

MIA

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

7.5

24%

36%

MIA

9.0

30%

45%

Free Throws

DEN

86%

MIA

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Billups	23	68%	11.5 / 17
C. Anthony	19	48%	9.5 / 20
K. Martin	18	64%	9.0 / 14
J. Smith	10	63%	5.0 / 8
A. Carter	8	67%	4.0 / 6
C. Andersen	7	175%	3.5 / 2
Nene	6	100%	3.0 / 3
L. Kleiza	4	18%	2.0 / 11
D. Jones	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Petro	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Wade	33	61%	16.5 / 27
S. Marion	14	54%	7.0 / 13
M. Chalmers	10	42%	5.0 / 12
C. Quinn	8	100%	4.0 / 4
M. Beasley	7	35%	3.5 / 10
U. Haslem	6	100%	3.0 / 3
D. Cook	4	22%	2.0 / 9
J. Magloire	0	-	0.0 / 0
J. Anthony	0	-	0.0 / 1
J. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+11

-10

MIA

+12

-19

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.10 55.0%

MIA

1.02 51.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	110.2 107.6	DEN 111.2 MIA 94.3 +17.0
Pace	94.5 90.2	DEN 87.4 MIA 88.7 +1.3
Avg. Poss. Time	14.7 16.3	DEN 16.5 MIA 16.2 +0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.2% 50.0%	DEN 53.7% +5.8% MIA 47.9%
TO %	15.8% 13.1%	DEN 10.3% +8.9% MIA 19.2%
ORB %	27.5% 24.6%	DEN 23.5% MIA 28.9% +5.4%
FTrt	38.2 28.2	DEN 17.3 MIA 21.9 +4.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	59.5% 55.1%	DEN 53.7% +13.1% MIA 40.6%
STL %	9.1% 8.7%	DEN 13.5% +7.8% MIA 5.7%
BLK %	9.7% 9.2%	DEN 3.8% MIA 10.0% +6.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.55 and 2.55.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	54.8% 52.6%	DEN 55.0% +3.7% MIA 51.3%
Rim FG%	60.5% 59.5%	DEN 80.6% +13.9% MIA 66.7%
Mid FG%	38.7% 41.8%	DEN 37.9% MIA 40.0% +2.1%
3P %	37.1% 35.7%	DEN 23.8% MIA 30.0% +6.2%
FT %	76.0% 75.4%	DEN 85.7% +10.7% MIA 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	39.7% 30.3%	DEN 38.3% +13.6% MIA 24.7%
Mid Att. %	37.6% 45.2%	DEN 35.8% +12.1% MIA 47.9%
3P Att. %	22.7% 24.5%	DEN 25.9% MIA 27.4% +1.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	MIA
Possessions	89	87
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	99	82
Rebounds	35	37
Assists	22	13
Steals	12	5
Blocks	2	6
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	19 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (3)	11 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (4)	26 (4)
Field Goals	41-81	32-73
At-the-Rim FG	25-31	12-18
Midrange FG	11-29	14-35
2-Point FG	36-60	26-53
3-Point FG	5-21	6-20
Free Throws	12-14	12-16
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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7 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 32	39.7	23	68%	2	5	2	0	2	3	0	2	0-0	-	7-9	78%	3-8	38%
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 31	37.1	18	64%	10	2	4	1	0	1	3	7	0-0	-	9-13	69%	0-1	0%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 25	32.3	19	48%	9	1	1	0	4	1	2	7	9-11	82%	5-13	38%	0-2	0%
Nene C · 6'11" 250 · 26	24.0	6	100%	4	3	1	0	1	5	2	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G · 6'6" 225 · 28	16.3	2	33%	1	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 34	29.1	8	67%	0	5	3	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 24	26.9	4	18%	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-6	0%
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 23	19.4	10	63%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 31	13.3	7	175%	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Johan Petro C · 7'0" 247 · 23	1.9	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 25
Sonny Weems G-F · 6'6" 205 · 23
Steven Hunter #45 · C · 7'0" 240 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	55%	35	22	12	2	10	0	8	27	12-14	86%	36-60	60%	5-21	24%

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7 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 32	39.7	23	68%	2	5	2	0	2	3	0	2	0-0	-	7-9	78%	3-8	38%
Kenyon Martin F · 6'9" 225 · 31	37.1	18	64%	10	2	4	1	0	1	3	7	0-0	-	9-13	69%	0-1	0%
Carmelo Anthony F · 6'8" 240 · 25	32.3	19	48%	9	1	1	0	4	1	2	7	9-11	82%	5-13	38%	0-2	0%
Nene C · 6'11" 250 · 26	24.0	6	100%	4	3	1	0	1	5	2	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G · 6'6" 225 · 28	16.3	2	33%	1	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 34	29.1	8	67%	0	5	3	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Linas Kleiza F · 6'8" 234 · 24	26.9	4	18%	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-6	0%
JR Smith G-F · 6'6" 225 · 23	19.4	10	63%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Chris Andersen F-C · 6'10" 245 · 31	13.3	7	175%	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Johan Petro C · 7'0" 247 · 23	1.9	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Renaldo Balkman F · 6'8" 225 · 25
Sonny Weems G-F · 6'6" 205 · 23
Steven Hunter #45 · C · 7'0" 240 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	55%	35	22	12	2	10	0	8	27	12-14	86%	36-60	60%	5-21	24%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 27	39.3	33	61%	7	2	2	0	5	1	2	5	8-12	67%	11-17	65%	1-5	20%
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 23	36.3	10	42%	7	5	1	0	4	4	1	6	0-0	-	2-8	25%	2-4	50%
Shawn Marion F · 6'7" 228 · 31	35.9	14	54%	5	1	0	0	1	3	2	3	0-0	-	7-12	58%	0-1	0%
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 29	33.4	6	100%	4	1	1	0	2	2	1	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 31	5.6	0	0%	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27	35.6	0	0%	5	1	0	5	3	3	3	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 22	21.2	4	22%	3	1	1	0	3	3	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-6	0%
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 20	12.9	7	35%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	2-2	100%	1-8	13%	1-1	100%
Chris Quinn G · 6'2" 175 · 25	10.6	8	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
James Jones G-F · 6'8" 218 · 28	7.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Yakhouba Diawara F-G · 6'7" 225 · 26	1.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mark Blount C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33
Dorell Wright #1 · F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Marcus Banks #5 · G · 6'2" 205 · 27	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	82	51%	37	13	5	6	19	0	11	26	12-16	75%	26-53	49%	6-20	30%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE