Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	5	Trail Blazers	46%	92	95
	11	Spurs	54%	93	83

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
POR	121.8	78	71.8
SAS	103.8	80	87.6

Scoring Opportunities

POR

+14

-13

SAS

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.16 57.9%

SAS

1.05 52.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	POR	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	POR		95 100%	83 0%
Q4 - 0:06.0	SAS	Williams 8' Turnaround Fadeaway (4 PTS)	95 99.9%	83 0.1%
Q4 - 0:17.0	POR	Blake 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS)	95 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:36.0	SAS	Hill 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Udoka 3 AST)	92 99.9%	81 0.1%
Q4 - 0:45.0	POR	Blake 18' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Roy 6 AST)	92 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 1:09	SAS	Parker 2' Layup (17 PTS)	90 99.9%	79 0.1%
Q4 - 1:13	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	90 99.9%	77 0.1%
Q4 - 1:16	POR	MISS Roy 25' 3PT Jump Shot	90 99.9%	77 0.1%
Q4 - 1:40	SAS	Williams 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Parker 7 AST)	90 99.9%	77 0.1%
Q4 - 1:43	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	90 99.9%	75 0.1%
Q4 - 1:45	SAS	MISS Udoka 2' Driving Reverse Layup	90 99.9%	75 0.1%
Q4 - 2:03	POR	Roy 14' Jump Shot (26 PTS)	90 99.9%	75 0.1%
Q4 - 2:22	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	88 99.9%	75 0.1%
Q4 - 2:23	SAS	MISS Parker 1' Running Layup	88 99.9%	75 0.1%
Q4 - 2:36	POR	Roy 1' Driving Layup (24 PTS)	88 99.8%	75 0.2%
Q4 - 2:59	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	86 99.5%	75 0.5%
Q4 - 2:59	SAS	MISS Gooden Free Throw 1 of 1	86 99.5%	75 0.5%
Q4 - 3:19	POR	Fernandez 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Aldridge 2 AST)	86 99.7%	73 0.3%
Q4 - 3:45	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	83 98.3%	73 1.7%
Q4 - 3:46	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	83 98.3%	73 1.7%
Q4 - 3:46	POR	MISS Blake 4' Jump Shot	83 97.8%	73 2.2%
Q4 - 3:48	POR	MISS Blake 5' Floating Jump Shot	83 97.8%	73 2.2%
Q4 - 4:14	SAS	Parker 2' Driving Layup (15 PTS)	83 98.4%	73 1.6%
Q4 - 4:29	POR	Aldridge 13' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	83 98.9%	71 1.1%
Q4 - 4:53	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	81 98.5%	71 1.5%
Q4 - 4:54	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot	81 98.3%	71 1.7%
Q4 - 5:06	POR	Fernandez 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Blake 7 AST)	81 96.1%	71 3.9%
Q4 - 5:21	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	78 92.9%	71 7.1%
Q4 - 5:22	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	78 92.2%	71 7.8%
Q4 - 5:35	POR	Roy Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P6.T14)	78 90.3%	71 9.7%
Q4 - 5:56	SAS	Thomas 10' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	78 93.0%	71 7.0%
Q4 - 6:12	POR	Roy 11' Step Back Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Blake 6 AST)	78 93.1%	69 6.9%
Q4 - 6:34	POR	Outlaw REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	76 91.1%	69 8.9%
Q4 - 6:36	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	76 90.2%	69 9.8%
Q4 - 6:57	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	76 88.2%	69 11.8%
Q4 - 6:59	POR	MISS Roy 17' Jump Shot	76 89.1%	69 10.9%
Q4 - 7:25	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	76 89.4%	69 10.6%
Q4 - 7:26	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot	76 88.5%	69 11.5%
Q4 - 7:42	POR	Outlaw 17' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Roy 5 AST)	76 86.3%	69 13.7%
Q4 - 8:05	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	74 80.9%	69 19.1%
Q4 - 8:07	SAS	MISS Gooden 5' Jump Shot	74 79.7%	69 20.3%
Q4 - 8:25	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:5 Def:12)	74 76.8%	69 23.2%
Q4 - 8:25	POR	Przybilla 1' Layup (3 PTS)	74 76.8%	69 23.2%
Q4 - 8:26	POR	Udoka BLOCK (1 BLK)	72 68.1%	69 31.9%
Q4 - 8:44	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:4 Def:12)	72 71.8%	69 28.2%
Q4 - 8:45	SAS	MISS Gooden 14' Jump Shot	72 70.2%	69 29.8%
Q4 - 9:02	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	72 65.3%	69 34.7%
Q4 - 9:04	POR	MISS Blake 13' Jump Shot	72 66.8%	69 33.2%
Q4 - 9:23	POR	Fernandez REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	72 70.4%	69 29.6%
Q4 - 9:24	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 24' Jump Shot	72 68.9%	69 31.1%
Q4 - 9:42	POR	Outlaw Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	72 65.4%	69 34.6%
Q4 - 9:42	POR	Outlaw Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	71 64.2%	69 35.8%
Q4 - 9:56	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:4 Def:11)	70 59.5%	69 40.5%
Q4 - 9:58	SAS	MISS Gooden 1' Layup	70 57.8%	69 42.2%
Q4 - 10:11	POR	Rodriguez Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T13)	70 53.3%	69 46.7%
Q4 - 10:22	SAS	Gooden 3' Layup (7 PTS) (Udoka 2 AST)	70 58.8%	69 41.2%
Q4 - 10:40	POR	Przybilla 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T12)	70 64.3%	67 35.7%
Q4 - 10:55	SAS	Hill Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T11)	70 69.2%	67 30.8%
Q4 - 10:59	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	70 64.3%	67 35.7%
Q4 - 11:00	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:4 Def:10)	70 69.2%	67 30.8%
Q4 - 11:00	POR	MISS Przybilla 2' Tip Shot	70 65.8%	67 34.2%
Q4 - 11:02	POR	MISS Przybilla 3' Layup	70 64.8%	67 35.2%
Q4 - 11:23	POR	Fernandez REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	70 68.0%	67 32.0%
Q4 - 11:25	SAS	MISS Udoka 24' 3PT Jump Bank Shot	70 66.6%	67 33.4%
Q4 - 11:34	POR	Trail Blazers Turnover: Shot Clock (T#11)	70 63.4%	67 36.6%
Q4 - 11:34	POR	Trail Blazers Rebound	70 68.0%	67 32.0%
Q4 - 11:35	POR	MISS Fernandez 25' 3PT Jump Shot	70 64.9%	67 35.1%
Q3 - 0:00.0	POR		70 68.0%	67 32.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS	Mason Jr. 5' Jump Bank Shot (18 PTS)	70 68.0%	67 32.0%
Q3 - 0:12.0	POR	Aldridge 4' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Rodriguez 1 AST)	70 71.6%	65 28.4%
Q3 - 0:30.0	SAS	MISS Gooden 10' Jump Shot	68 65.6%	65 34.4%
Q3 - 0:57.0	SAS	Gooden Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	66 57.3%	65 42.7%
Q3 - 0:57.0	SAS	Gooden Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	66 58.2%	64 41.8%
Q3 - 1:05	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	66 61.8%	63 38.2%
Q3 - 1:06	POR	MISS Oden 1' Dunk	66 63.1%	63 36.9%
Q3 - 1:11	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	66 65.9%	63 34.1%
Q3 - 1:13	POR	MISS Aldridge 17' Jump Shot	66 63.1%	63 36.9%
Q3 - 1:26	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	66 66.0%	63 34.0%
Q3 - 1:28	SAS	MISS Thomas 20' Jump Shot	66 64.7%	63 35.3%
Q3 - 1:36	SAS	SPURS Rebound	66 61.9%	63 38.1%
Q3 - 1:37	SAS	MISS Udoka 11' Jump Shot	66 64.8%	63 35.2%
Q3 - 1:54	POR	Aldridge 4' Running Finger Roll Layup (14 PTS) (Blake 5 AST)	66 61.9%	63 38.1%
Q3 - 2:10	POR	Trail Blazers Rebound	64 56.3%	63 43.7%
Q3 - 2:10	POR	MISS Outlaw 17' Jump Shot	64 53.0%	63 47.0%
Q3 - 2:34	SAS	Gooden Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)	64 56.3%	63 43.7%
Q3 - 2:51	POR	Aldridge Foul Turnover (P3.T10)	64 51.7%	63 48.3%
Q3 - 3:02	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:10)	64 56.2%	63 43.8%
Q3 - 3:04	SAS	MISS Thomas 9' Jump Shot	64 54.7%	63 45.3%
Q3 - 3:18	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	64 51.4%	63 48.6%
Q3 - 3:20	POR	MISS Aldridge 16' Jump Shot	64 52.9%	63 47.1%
Q3 - 3:33	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)	64 56.2%	63 43.8%
Q3 - 3:35	SAS	MISS Parker 19' Jump Shot	64 54.7%	63 45.3%
Q3 - 3:58	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 1 (20 PTS)	64 51.4%	63 48.6%
Q3 - 4:10	SAS	Finley 2' Dunk (11 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	61 43.0%	63 57.0%
Q3 - 4:16	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	61 46.6%	61 53.4%
Q3 - 4:17	POR	MISS Blake 25' 3PT Jump Shot	61 48.1%	61 51.9%
Q3 - 4:27	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)	61 51.7%	61 48.3%
Q3 - 4:28	SAS	MISS Parker 7' Turnaround Jump Shot	61 50.1%	61 49.9%
Q3 - 4:52	POR	Aldridge Layup (12 PTS)	61 46.6%	61 53.4%
Q3 - 4:54	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	59 43.0%	61 57.0%
Q3 - 4:56	POR	MISS Roy 25' 3PT Jump Shot	59 39.5%	61 60.5%
Q3 - 5:16	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	59 42.7%	61 57.3%
Q3 - 5:18	SAS	MISS Finley 9' Jump Shot	59 41.3%	61 58.7%
Q3 - 5:36	POR	Blake 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Aldridge 1 AST)	59 38.2%	61 61.8%
Q3 - 5:44	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)	56 31.1%	61 68.9%
Q3 - 5:46	SAS	MISS Parker 8' Driving Jump Shot	56 29.9%	61 70.1%
Q3 - 6:02	POR	Aldridge 17' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Blake 4 AST)	56 27.9%	61 72.1%
Q3 - 6:21	SAS	Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)	54 25.0%	61 75.0%
Q3 - 6:41	POR	Aldridge 14' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Blake 3 AST)	54 31.2%	58 68.8%
Q3 - 6:59	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	52 28.1%	58 71.9%
Q3 - 7:01	SAS	MISS Duncan 7' Turnaround Bank Shot	52 27.6%	58 72.4%
Q3 - 7:22	POR	Aldridge 12' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Roy 4 AST)	52 25.4%	58 74.6%
Q3 - 7:43	SAS	Finley 1' Layup (9 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	50 22.7%	58 77.3%
Q3 - 7:49	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	50 25.3%	56 74.7%
Q3 - 7:50	POR	MISS Batum 24' 3PT Jump Shot	50 26.3%	56 73.7%
Q3 - 8:10	SAS	Bonner 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	50 28.8%	56 71.2%
Q3 - 8:28	POR	Aldridge Traveling Turnover (P2.T9)	50 35.1%	53 64.9%
Q3 - 8:47	SAS	Parker Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T9)	50 38.9%	53 61.1%
Q3 - 8:55	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	50 35.1%	53 64.9%
Q3 - 8:57	POR	MISS Roy 13' Jump Shot	50 36.3%	53 63.7%
Q3 - 9:15	POR	Aldridge REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	50 39.0%	53 61.0%
Q3 - 9:16	SAS	MISS Duncan 14' Jump Bank Shot	50 37.9%	53 62.1%
Q3 - 9:33	POR	Blake Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	50 35.5%	53 64.5%
Q3 - 9:37	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	50 39.0%	53 61.0%
Q3 - 9:38	SAS	MISS Parker 15' Jump Shot	50 37.9%	53 62.1%
Q3 - 9:47	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	50 35.5%	53 64.5%
Q3 - 9:49	POR	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	50 36.5%	53 63.5%
Q3 - 9:54	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	50 39.0%	53 61.0%
Q3 - 9:56	POR	MISS Blake 16' Jump Shot	50 36.5%	53 63.5%
Q3 - 10:24	SAS	Bonner 7' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	50 39.2%	53 60.8%
Q3 - 10:55	POR	Przybilla Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	50 42.6%	51 57.4%
Q3 - 10:55	POR	MISS Przybilla Free Throw 1 of 2	49 41.4%	51 58.6%
Q3 - 11:04	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T8)	49 42.9%	51 57.1%
Q3 - 11:20	POR	Roy 18' Jump Shot (17 PTS)	49 39.3%	51 60.7%
Q3 - 11:37	SAS	Duncan 7' Turnaround Bank Shot (4 PTS)	47 36.3%	51 63.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		47 39.3%	49 60.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	POR	Blake 40' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	47 39.3%	49 60.7%
Q2 - 0:03.0	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (13 PTS)	44 33.2%	49 66.8%
Q2 - 0:15.0	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)	44 37.0%	47 63.0%
Q2 - 0:22.0	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	41 30.3%	47 69.7%
Q2 - 0:24.0	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Turnaround Jump Shot	41 29.6%	47 70.4%
Q2 - 0:39.0	POR	Fernandez 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Roy 3 AST)	41 28.1%	47 71.9%
Q2 - 0:45.0	POR	Roy REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 22.5%	47 77.5%
Q2 - 0:46.0	SAS	MISS Parker 9' Jump Shot	38 21.9%	47 78.1%
Q2 - 0:59.0	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	38 20.7%	47 79.3%
Q2 - 1:00	POR	MISS Outlaw 3PT Jump Shot	38 21.2%	47 78.8%
Q2 - 1:17	SAS	Bonner Foul Turnover (P1.T7)	38 22.9%	47 77.1%
Q2 - 1:32	POR	Outlaw 15' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Roy 2 AST)	38 21.3%	47 78.7%
Q2 - 1:42	POR	Trail Blazers Rebound	36 18.6%	47 81.4%
Q2 - 1:43	POR	MISS Roy 21' Jump Shot	36 17.6%	47 82.4%
Q2 - 2:03	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	36 19.5%	47 80.5%
Q2 - 2:16	POR	Oden 2' Layup (8 PTS)	36 17.4%	47 82.6%
Q2 - 2:37	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (11 PTS)	34 15.7%	47 84.3%
Q2 - 2:48	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	34 17.4%	45 82.6%
Q2 - 2:49	SAS	MISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	34 18.8%	45 81.2%
Q2 - 3:13	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	34 17.8%	45 82.2%
Q2 - 3:13	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	33 17.5%	45 82.5%
Q2 - 3:35	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (9 PTS)	32 16.3%	45 83.7%
Q2 - 3:50	POR	Finley STEAL (1 STL)	32 17.7%	43 82.3%
Q2 - 4:08	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	32 20.3%	43 79.7%
Q2 - 4:09	SAS	MISS Duncan 18' Jump Shot	32 19.7%	43 80.3%
Q2 - 4:34	POR	Roy 1' Reverse Layup (10 PTS)	32 18.3%	43 81.7%
Q2 - 4:55	SAS	Duncan 3 Second Violation Turnover (P2.T5)	30 16.6%	43 83.4%
Q2 - 5:21	POR	Oden 1' Slam Dunk (6 PTS) (Roy 1 AST)	30 15.6%	43 84.4%
Q2 - 5:44	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	28 14.1%	43 85.9%
Q2 - 5:45	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot	28 13.6%	43 86.4%
Q2 - 5:58	POR	Roy Foul Turnover (P4.T6)	28 12.7%	43 87.3%
Q2 - 6:10	SAS	Udoka 21' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Mason Jr. 4 AST)	28 14.8%	43 85.2%
Q2 - 6:28	POR	Roy 1' Layup (8 PTS)	28 16.0%	41 84.0%
Q2 - 6:41	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	26 14.7%	41 85.3%
Q2 - 6:42	SAS	MISS Udoka 24' 3PT Jump Shot	26 14.2%	41 85.8%
Q2 - 7:01	POR	Outlaw 1' Dunk (6 PTS) (Blake 2 AST)	26 13.6%	41 86.4%
Q2 - 7:07	POR	Blake REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 12.3%	41 87.7%
Q2 - 7:08	SAS	MISS Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	24 12.0%	41 88.0%
Q2 - 7:24	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	24 11.1%	41 88.9%
Q2 - 7:24	POR	Oden 2' Dunk (4 PTS)	24 11.1%	41 88.9%
Q2 - 7:26	POR	MISS Roy Layup	22 9.4%	41 90.6%
Q2 - 7:46	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	22 10.1%	41 89.9%
Q2 - 7:46	SAS	Thomas 1' Tip Shot (6 PTS)	22 10.1%	41 89.9%
Q2 - 7:47	SAS	MISS Thomas Layup	22 12.0%	39 88.0%
Q2 - 8:04	SAS	SPURS Rebound	22 11.8%	39 88.2%
Q2 - 8:04	POR	MISS Outlaw 19' Jump Shot	22 12.2%	39 87.8%
Q2 - 8:18	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	22 13.0%	39 87.0%
Q2 - 8:19	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot	22 12.6%	39 87.4%
Q2 - 8:34	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	22 11.8%	39 88.2%
Q2 - 8:36	POR	MISS Fernandez 18' Jump Shot	22 12.1%	39 87.9%
Q2 - 8:39	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 12.9%	39 87.1%
Q2 - 8:40	POR	MISS Fernandez 17' Jump Shot	22 12.1%	39 87.9%
Q2 - 8:53	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)	22 12.9%	39 87.1%
Q2 - 8:54	SAS	SPURS Rebound	22 11.8%	39 88.2%
Q2 - 8:54	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 19' Jump Shot	22 12.5%	39 87.5%
Q2 - 9:29	POR	Outlaw 15' Step Back Jump Shot (4 PTS)	22 12.1%	39 87.9%
Q2 - 9:46	SAS	Thomas 7' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Udoka 1 AST)	20 11.0%	39 89.0%
Q2 - 10:04	SAS	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 12.6%	37 87.4%
Q2 - 10:05	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 23' Jump Shot	20 13.4%	37 86.6%
Q2 - 10:18	POR	Rodriguez 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	20 12.6%	37 87.4%
Q2 - 10:34	SAS	Thomas 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mason Jr. 3 AST)	18 11.5%	37 88.5%
Q2 - 10:45	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 12.5%	35 87.5%
Q2 - 10:46	POR	MISS Rodriguez 7' Jump Shot	18 12.9%	35 87.1%
Q2 - 11:08	SAS	Mason Jr. 20' Pullup Jump Shot (13 PTS)	18 14.3%	35 85.7%
Q2 - 11:29	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 15.6%	33 84.4%
Q2 - 11:30	POR	MISS Oden Free Throw 1 of 1	18 15.7%	33 84.3%
Q2 - 11:43	POR	Oden REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 14.3%	33 85.7%
Q2 - 11:44	SAS	MISS Gooden 14' Jump Shot	16 13.9%	33 86.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	POR		16 13.0%	33 87.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Udoka Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	16 14.3%	33 85.7%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Udoka Free Throw 1 of 2	16 14.6%	32 85.4%
Q1 - 0:17.0	POR	Rodriguez 9' Pullup Jump Shot (4 PTS)	16 15.1%	32 84.9%
Q1 - 0:28.0	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 3 of 3 (11 PTS)	14 13.6%	32 86.4%
Q1 - 0:28.0	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 2 of 3 (10 PTS)	14 13.7%	31 86.3%
Q1 - 0:28.0	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 1 of 3 (9 PTS)	14 13.8%	30 86.2%
Q1 - 0:35.0	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 16.4%	29 83.6%
Q1 - 0:36.0	POR	MISS Fernandez 3PT Jump Shot	14 16.7%	29 83.3%
Q1 - 0:48.0	SAS	Gooden Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	14 17.4%	29 82.6%
Q1 - 1:12	POR	Rodriguez 1' Layup (2 PTS)	14 21.7%	26 78.3%
Q1 - 1:24	SAS	Mason Jr. 20' Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS)	12 19.6%	26 80.4%
Q1 - 1:46	POR	Outlaw 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Fernandez 1 AST)	12 21.6%	24 78.4%
Q1 - 2:06	SAS	Thomas Foul Turnover (P1.T3)	10 20.3%	24 79.7%
Q1 - 2:14	SAS	SPURS Rebound	10 19.1%	24 80.9%
Q1 - 2:14	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 1' Layup	10 19.9%	24 80.1%
Q1 - 2:19	POR	Mason Jr. STEAL (1 STL)	10 19.1%	24 80.9%
Q1 - 2:41	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (2 PTS) (Mason Jr. 2 AST)	10 20.3%	24 79.7%
Q1 - 3:06	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	10 22.2%	22 77.8%
Q1 - 3:06	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	9 21.9%	22 78.1%
Q1 - 3:15	SAS	Parker 17' Jump Shot (7 PTS)	8 20.6%	22 79.4%
Q1 - 3:32	POR	Roy Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	8 22.2%	20 77.8%
Q1 - 3:32	POR	Roy Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	7 21.9%	20 78.1%
Q1 - 3:41	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	6 20.6%	20 79.4%
Q1 - 3:42	POR	MISS Roy 25' 3PT Jump Shot	6 19.6%	20 80.4%
Q1 - 3:56	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	6 20.6%	20 79.4%
Q1 - 3:57	SAS	MISS Duncan 7' Jump Bank Shot	6 20.2%	20 79.8%
Q1 - 4:17	POR	Duncan STEAL (2 STL)	6 19.6%	20 80.4%
Q1 - 4:28	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	6 21.1%	20 78.9%
Q1 - 4:29	POR	MISS Outlaw 4' Jump Shot	6 20.0%	20 80.0%
Q1 - 4:52	SAS	Parker Palming Turnover (P1.T2)	6 21.1%	20 78.9%
Q1 - 5:08	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 20.0%	20 80.0%
Q1 - 5:09	POR	MISS Blake 5' Running Bank Shot	6 20.5%	20 79.5%
Q1 - 5:29	SAS	Finley 7' Driving Bank Shot (7 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	6 21.6%	20 78.4%
Q1 - 5:41	POR	Roy Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	6 22.9%	18 77.1%
Q1 - 5:58	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	6 24.6%	18 75.4%
Q1 - 6:01	SAS	MISS Parker 12' Running Jump Shot	6 24.3%	18 75.7%
Q1 - 6:13	POR	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	6 23.2%	18 76.8%
Q1 - 6:37	SAS	Finley 1' Driving Reverse Layup (5 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	6 24.8%	18 75.2%
Q1 - 6:48	POR	Batum Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	6 26.4%	16 73.6%
Q1 - 7:07	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	6 28.2%	16 71.8%
Q1 - 7:07	SAS	Bonner 13' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 28.2%	16 71.8%
Q1 - 7:09	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot	6 31.1%	14 68.9%
Q1 - 7:23	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 29.7%	14 70.3%
Q1 - 7:24	POR	MISS Blake 24' 3PT Jump Shot	6 30.3%	14 69.7%
Q1 - 7:50	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Mason Jr. 1 AST)	6 31.7%	14 68.3%
Q1 - 8:05	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	6 35.5%	11 64.5%
Q1 - 8:07	POR	MISS Roy 20' Jump Shot	6 36.0%	11 64.0%
Q1 - 8:20	SAS	Parker 7' Jump Bank Shot (5 PTS)	6 37.4%	11 62.6%
Q1 - 8:28	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 39.4%	9 60.6%
Q1 - 8:29	POR	MISS Aldridge 17' Jump Shot	6 40.0%	9 60.0%
Q1 - 8:39	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	6 41.4%	9 58.6%
Q1 - 9:02	POR	Roy 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	6 46.0%	6 54.0%
Q1 - 9:17	SAS	Duncan Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	4 43.8%	6 56.2%
Q1 - 9:27	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 42.0%	6 58.0%
Q1 - 9:29	POR	MISS Roy 16' Jump Shot	4 42.6%	6 57.4%
Q1 - 9:40	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (3 PTS)	4 43.8%	6 56.2%
Q1 - 9:52	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 47.9%	3 52.1%
Q1 - 9:53	POR	MISS Blake 25' 3PT Jump Shot	4 48.5%	3 51.5%
Q1 - 10:19	SAS	Mason Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	4 49.6%	3 50.4%
Q1 - 10:41	POR	Aldridge 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Blake 1 AST)	4 53.2%	0 46.8%
Q1 - 11:10	POR	Przybilla REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 50.7%	0 49.3%
Q1 - 11:11	SAS	MISS Duncan 15' Jump Bank Shot	2 50.2%	0 49.8%
Q1 - 11:35	POR	Aldridge 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 49.0%	0 51.0%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Przybilla: Tip to Aldridge	0 47.4%	0 52.6%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.16 57.9%

SAS

1.05 52.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

POR

63%

SAS

68%

Midrange

POR

52%

SAS

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

POR

9.0

38%

56%

SAS

7.5

33%

50%

Free Throws

POR

85%

SAS

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Trail Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Roy	26	62%	13.0 / 21
L. Aldridge	20	83%	10.0 / 12
T. Outlaw	12	55%	6.0 / 11
S. Blake	11	46%	5.5 / 12
R. Fernandez	9	64%	4.5 / 7
G. Oden	8	80%	4.0 / 5
S. Rodriguez	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Przybilla	3	38%	1.5 / 4
N. Batum	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Mason Jr.	18	56%	9.0 / 16
T. Parker	17	57%	8.5 / 15
M. Finley	11	61%	5.5 / 9
D. Gooden	9	50%	4.5 / 9
K. Thomas	8	57%	4.0 / 7
M. Bonner	7	88%	3.5 / 4
T. Duncan	4	25%	2.0 / 8
M. Williams	4	100%	2.0 / 2
I. Udoka	3	25%	1.5 / 6
G. Hill	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

POR

+14

-13

SAS

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.16 57.9%

SAS

1.05 52.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	113.3 108.3	POR 121.8 +18.0 SAS 103.8
Pace	87.1 88.7	POR 71.8 SAS 87.6 +15.8
Avg. Poss. Time	17.2 16.5	POR 20.1 SAS 16.4 +3.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	51.1% 51.3%	POR 56.8% +6.1% SAS 50.7%
TO %	13.8% 12.4%	POR 14.9% SAS 12.3% +2.6%
ORB %	32.6% 22.2%	POR 34.4% +20.9% SAS 13.5%
FTrt	30.6 25.1	POR 17.6 +4.1 SAS 13.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.2% 57.1%	POR 48.7% +0.1% SAS 48.6%
STL %	7.7% 6.5%	POR 7.7% +2.7% SAS 5.0%
BLK %	8.0% 6.1%	POR 6.8% +3.4% SAS 3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.62 and 2.62.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	53.6% 53.4%	POR 57.9% +5.4% SAS 52.5%
Rim FG%	59.5% 58.8%	POR 63.0% SAS 68.2% +5.2%
Mid FG%	40.8% 42.7%	POR 51.6% +11.1% SAS 40.5%
3P %	38.3% 38.6%	POR 37.5% +4.2% SAS 33.3%
FT %	76.6% 76.2%	POR 84.6% +4.6% SAS 80.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	33.3% 30.3%	POR 36.5% +6.8% SAS 29.7%
Mid Att. %	42.7% 44.9%	POR 41.9% +8.1% SAS 50.0%
3P Att. %	23.9% 24.8%	POR 21.6% +1.4% SAS 20.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	POR	SAS
Possessions	78	80
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	95	83
Rebounds	43	26
Assists	19	17
Steals	6	4
Blocks	4	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	10 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (3)	5 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (0)	21 (1)
Field Goals	39-74	35-74
At-the-Rim FG	17-27	15-22
Midrange FG	16-31	15-37
2-Point FG	33-58	30-59
3-Point FG	6-16	5-15
Free Throws	11-13	8-10
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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5 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LaMarcus Aldridge F · 6'11" 260 · 24	39.2	20	83%	6	2	2	0	3	2	2	4	0-0	-	10-13	77%	0-0	-
Brandon Roy G · 6'6" 211 · 25	38.3	26	62%	3	6	0	1	6	2	0	3	8-8	100%	9-16	56%	0-3	0%
Steve Blake G · 6'3" 172 · 29	35.9	11	46%	5	7	1	0	1	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-6	50%
Joel Przybilla C · 7'1" 245 · 29	26.1	3	38%	17	0	0	0	1	1	5	12	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Nicolas Batum F · 6'8" 230 · 20	17.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Travis Outlaw F · 6'9" 207 · 25	26.2	12	55%	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-1	0%
Rudy Fernandez · 6'6" 185 · 24	25.8	9	64%	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-5	60%
Greg Oden C · 7'0" 273 · 21	21.6	8	80%	8	0	0	2	0	5	2	6	0-1	0%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Sergio Rodriguez G · 6'3" 176 · 23	9.1	6	75%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Channing Frye F · 6'11" 255 · 26
Jerryd Bayless G · 6'3" 200 · 21
Michael Ruffin F-C · 6'8" 248 · 32
Martell Webster #8 · F-G · 6'7" 230 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Raef LaFrentz #9 · C-F · 6'11" 240 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Shavlik Randolph #42 · F · 6'10" 236 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	58%	43	19	6	4	13	0	11	32	11-13	85%	33-58	57%	6-16	38%

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5 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LaMarcus Aldridge F · 6'11" 260 · 24	39.2	20	83%	6	2	2	0	3	2	2	4	0-0	-	10-13	77%	0-0	-
Brandon Roy G · 6'6" 211 · 25	38.3	26	62%	3	6	0	1	6	2	0	3	8-8	100%	9-16	56%	0-3	0%
Steve Blake G · 6'3" 172 · 29	35.9	11	46%	5	7	1	0	1	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-6	50%
Joel Przybilla C · 7'1" 245 · 29	26.1	3	38%	17	0	0	0	1	1	5	12	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Nicolas Batum F · 6'8" 230 · 20	17.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Travis Outlaw F · 6'9" 207 · 25	26.2	12	55%	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-1	0%
Rudy Fernandez · 6'6" 185 · 24	25.8	9	64%	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-5	60%
Greg Oden C · 7'0" 273 · 21	21.6	8	80%	8	0	0	2	0	5	2	6	0-1	0%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Sergio Rodriguez G · 6'3" 176 · 23	9.1	6	75%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Channing Frye F · 6'11" 255 · 26
Jerryd Bayless G · 6'3" 200 · 21
Michael Ruffin F-C · 6'8" 248 · 32
Martell Webster #8 · F-G · 6'7" 230 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Raef LaFrentz #9 · C-F · 6'11" 240 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Shavlik Randolph #42 · F · 6'10" 236 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	58%	43	19	6	4	13	0	11	32	11-13	85%	33-58	57%	6-16	38%

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11 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 29	39.1	18	56%	3	4	1	0	0	3	0	3	3-3	100%	3-8	38%	3-7	43%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 27	33.3	17	57%	5	7	0	0	4	0	1	4	1-1	100%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Michael Finley F · 6'7" 225 · 36	32.1	11	61%	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 33	23.9	4	25%	5	1	2	1	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	2-8	25%	0-0	-
Matt Bonner C · 6'10" 235 · 29	20.1	7	88%	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 32	23.9	3	25%	2	3	0	1	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Drew Gooden F · 6'10" 250 · 28	19.5	9	50%	1	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	3-4	75%	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 37	18.3	8	57%	5	0	0	0	1	5	1	4	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 38	17.3	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 23	8.3	2	100%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Marcus Williams G · 6'7" 207 · 22	3.2	4	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 34	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Fabricio Oberto #7 · C · 6'10" 245 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Manu Ginobili #20 · G · 6'6" 205 · 32	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	83	53%	26	17	4	2	10	0	5	21	8-10	80%	30-59	51%	5-15	33%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE