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Predicted Boxscore

Boxscore predictions combine predicted minutes / possessions with estimated skills. For more information and some caveats, see below.
Friday
January 6, 2012
12:00 PM ET
FinalWin Prob.pScoreScore
7Nuggets70%10296
27Hornets30%9588
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GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Danilo Gallinari
F · 6'10" 225 · 23.4
39.4
30.2
23
64%
4
6
1
1
1
1
0
4
2-2
100%
6-8
3-6
75%
48%
3-9
33%
Ty Lawson
G · 5'11" 195 · 24.2
35.2
30.2
12
38%
0
8
0
1
0
5
0
0
6-6
100%
3-11
4-8
27%
54%
0-2
0%
Arron Afflalo
G · 6'5" 210 · 26.2
34.2
24.5
13
57%
3
2
0
0
0
0
1
2
1-1
100%
6-7
3-5
86%
52%
0-4
0%
Nene
C-F · 6'11" 250 · 29.3
24.2
20.5
6
34%
8
2
2
1
0
2
1
7
2-4
50%
2-7
3-6
29%
58%
0-0
-
Timofey Mozgov
C · 7'1" 275 · 25.5
13.1
16.9
0
0%
5
0
0
0
1
0
1
4
0-0
-
0-2
2-4
0%
49%
0-0
-
Andre Miller
G · 6'3" 200 · 35.8
31.3
25.8
13
53%
4
4
1
1
1
3
1
3
5-5
100%
4-8
3-7
50%
47%
0-2
0%
Al Harrington
F · 6'9" 245 · 31.9
23.0
24.6
14
64%
6
1
3
1
0
1
1
5
0-2
0%
4-7
3-6
57%
50%
2-3
67%
Rudy Fernandez
· 6'6" 185 · 26.8
17.9
24.0
5
51%
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1-2
50%
2-3
1-3
67%
44%
0-1
0%
Kosta Koufos
C · 7'0" 265 · 22.9
17.1
14.3
8
100%
5
0
0
0
3
0
2
3
0-0
-
4-4
2-4
100%
49%
0-0
-
Chris Andersen
F-C · 6'10" 245 · 33.5
4.7
15.7
2
100%
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0-0
-
1-1
2-3
100%
56%
0-0
-
Corey Brewer
F · 6'9" 186 · 25.8
11.2
1
1-3
44%
Kenneth Faried
F · 6'8" 228 · 22.1
5.6
0
1-1
46%
DeMarre Carroll
F · 6'8" 215 · 25.4
4.5
0
1-1
45%
Jordan Hamilton
G-F · 6'7" 220 · 21.3
Julyan Stone
G · 6'6" 200 · 23.1
GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Marco Belinelli
G-F · 6'5" 210 · 25.8
40.2
28.7
13
50%
3
4
2
1
0
1
1
2
0-0
-
2-7
2-5
29%
44%
3-6
50%
Jarrett Jack
G · 6'3" 200 · 28.2
39.6
35.1
15
52%
3
6
1
1
0
3
2
1
2-3
67%
5-9
6-12
56%
46%
1-4
25%
Emeka Okafor
C · 6'10" 255 · 29.3
30.5
27.1
7
39%
5
0
2
1
4
1
2
3
1-2
50%
3-8
3-6
38%
54%
0-0
-
Chris Kaman
C · 7'0" 265 · 29.7
27.7
24.2
6
33%
12
2
0
0
1
4
0
12
0-0
-
3-9
5-10
33%
48%
0-0
-
Al-Farouq Aminu
F · 6'9" 220 · 21.3
21.5
18.6
6
60%
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0-0
-
3-5
1-3
60%
43%
0-0
-
Greivis Vasquez
G · 6'6" 217 · 25.0
26.1
16.0
16
73%
4
4
2
1
1
1
0
4
0-0
-
2-4
2-4
50%
45%
4-7
57%
Carl Landry
F · 6'9" 248 · 28.3
25.6
25.8
15
57%
6
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
5-5
100%
5-11
5-10
45%
50%
0-0
-
Jason Smith
F-C · 7'0" 240 · 25.8
21.5
15.9
8
67%
1
1
0
0
2
2
0
1
0-0
-
4-6
2-5
67%
45%
0-0
-
Trey Johnson
G · 6'5" 215 · 27.4
5.8
8.3
2
100%
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0-0
-
1-1
1-2
100%
42%
0-0
-
Carldell Johnson
G · 5'10" 180 · 28.9
1.5
1.0
0
0%
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
0-0
-
40%
0-0
-
Eric Gordon
G · 6'4" 215 · 23.0
21.9
1
3-7
48%
Trevor Ariza
F-G · 6'8" 215 · 26.5
18.7
1
2-5
45%
Gustavo Ayon
· 6'10" 250 · 26.8
1.4
0
0-0
45%
Xavier Henry
F-G · 6'6" 220 · 20.8
DaJuan Summers
F · 6'8" 240 · 24.0
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.