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Predicted Boxscore

Boxscore predictions combine predicted minutes / possessions with estimated skills. For more information and some caveats, see below.
Monday
January 14, 2013
12:00 PM ET
FinalWin Prob.pScoreScore
3Heat58%10097
19Jazz42%98104
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GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
LeBron James
F-G · 6'8" 250 · 28.0
43.7
34.9
32
77%
4
6
3
1
2
3
1
3
4-4
100%
11-15
7-12
73%
55%
2-4
50%
Mario Chalmers
G · 6'2" 190 · 26.7
37.3
25.6
12
61%
2
7
1
1
0
1
0
2
2-4
50%
2-4
1-3
50%
49%
2-4
50%
Dwyane Wade
G · 6'4" 220 · 31.0
29.3
30.1
11
45%
5
4
1
1
0
2
1
4
0-3
0%
4-9
6-12
44%
51%
1-2
50%
Chris Bosh
F · 6'11" 235 · 28.8
26.6
32.2
16
62%
1
1
0
1
1
2
1
0
0-0
-
8-13
5-11
62%
52%
0-0
-
Udonis Haslem
F · 6'8" 235 · 32.6
18.8
21.9
0
0%
5
1
1
0
0
2
0
5
0-0
-
0-1
2-4
0%
46%
0-0
-
Rashard Lewis
F · 6'10" 235 · 33.4
27.3
6.5
13
57%
4
0
1
0
1
1
0
4
3-3
100%
2-4
0-1
50%
48%
2-6
33%
Ray Allen
G · 6'5" 205 · 37.5
23.4
20.5
10
83%
0
3
0
1
0
2
0
0
0-0
-
2-2
2-3
100%
49%
2-4
50%
Joel Anthony
C · 6'9" 245 · 30.4
22.9
16.2
3
80%
2
2
1
0
0
0
2
0
1-2
50%
1-1
1-2
100%
51%
0-0
-
Norris Cole
G · 6'2" 175 · 24.3
6.0
17.1
0
0%
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
2-4
-
42%
0-1
0%
Mike Miller
G-F · 6'8" 218 · 32.9
4.7
19.1
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
1-1
-
47%
0-2
0%
Shane Battier
F · 6'8" 220 · 34.3
19.8
1
0-1
46%
Jarvis Varnado
F-C · 6'9" 230 · 24.9
3.5
0
0-1
48%
Josh Harrellson
F-C · 6'10" 275 · 23.9
2.5
0
0-0
49%
James Jones
G-F · 6'8" 218 · 32.3
Dexter Pittman
C · 6'11" 285 · 24.9
GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Al Jefferson
C · 6'10" 280 · 28.0
37.6
33.8
23
66%
11
1
1
1
0
2
4
7
7-8
88%
8-14
8-15
57%
50%
0-0
-
Paul Millsap
F · 6'8" 246 · 27.9
32.8
31.9
17
46%
9
0
2
1
0
1
5
4
9-10
90%
4-14
6-11
29%
51%
0-0
-
Marvin Williams
F · 6'9" 237 · 26.6
32.7
8.7
5
31%
2
2
2
0
1
1
0
2
0-0
-
1-4
1-2
25%
48%
1-4
25%
Jamaal Tinsley
G · 6'3" 188 · 34.9
30.6
16.7
3
21%
5
7
1
1
0
5
0
5
0-0
-
0-2
1-2
0%
43%
1-5
20%
Randy Foye
G · 6'4" 218 · 29.3
21.2
32.7
9
75%
2
2
1
1
0
0
1
1
0-0
-
0-2
2-5
0%
42%
3-4
75%
Gordon Hayward
F · 6'8" 226 · 22.8
26.8
27.2
22
75%
2
4
0
1
0
2
0
2
3-4
75%
5-9
3-7
56%
47%
3-4
75%
Derrick Favors
F-C · 6'10" 265 · 21.5
17.9
18.2
7
79%
1
2
0
1
1
0
0
1
1-1
100%
3-4
3-6
75%
49%
0-0
-
DeMarre Carroll
F · 6'8" 215 · 26.5
15.3
19.3
12
72%
4
2
1
1
0
1
3
1
2-3
67%
5-7
2-4
71%
46%
0-0
-
Earl Watson
G · 6'1" 199 · 33.6
9.3
19.5
0
0%
0
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
1-2
-
43%
0-0
-
Alec Burks
G · 6'6" 214 · 21.5
8.1
19.0
4
69%
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
2-2
100%
1-1
3-6
100%
44%
0-1
0%
Enes Kanter
C · 6'11" 245 · 20.7
7.6
9.6
2
100%
3
2
0
0
0
1
0
3
0-0
-
1-1
2-3
100%
52%
0-0
-
Jeremy Evans
F · 6'9" 200 · 25.2
2.0
0
0-0
56%
Kevin Murphy
G · 6'6" 185 · 22.9
1.0
0
0-0
46%
Mo Williams
G · 6'1" 198 · 30.1
Raja Bell
G · 6'5" 210 · 36.3
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.