FinalWin Prob.pScore
2340%110
107
1760%114
113
ORTG#PossPace
DET logo DET
111.59688.1
MIA logo MIA
116.597108.3

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatPistonsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatPistonsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDETMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0End of 4th Quarter.107
0%
113
100%
Q4 - 0:07.5PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk turnover (out of bounds bad pass)107
0.1%
113
99.9%
Q4 - 0:16.0HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2107
0.4%
113
99.6%
Q4 - 0:16.0HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2107
0.5%
112
99.5%
Q4 - 0:16.0PistonsWayne Ellington personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)107
0.7%
111
99.3%
Q4 - 0:18.2PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 3 of 3107
1.0%
111
99.0%
Q4 - 0:18.2PistonsDerrick Rose misses regular free throw 2 of 3106
0.9%
111
99.1%
Q4 - 0:18.2PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 1 of 3106
1.9%
111
98.1%
Q4 - 0:18.2HeatBam Adebayo shooting foul (Derrick Rose draws the foul)105
1.7%
111
98.3%
Q4 - 0:23.5PistonsJerami Grant defensive rebound105
0.7%
111
99.3%
Q4 - 0:23.8HeatGoran Dragic misses regular free throw 2 of 2105
0.7%
111
99.3%
Q4 - 0:23.8HeatGoran Dragic makes regular free throw 1 of 2105
0.4%
111
99.6%
Q4 - 0:23.8PistonsMason Plumlee personal foul (Goran Dragic draws the foul)105
0.5%
110
99.5%
Q4 - 0:26.1HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound105
0.7%
110
99.3%
Q4 - 0:30.6PistonsBam Adebayo blocks Jerami Grant's two point driving layup105
1.1%
110
98.9%
Q4 - 0:45.7HeatGoran Dragic makes two point bank jump shot105
4.1%
110
95.9%
Q4 - 1:01PistonsJerami Grant makes two point driving layup105
8.5%
108
91.5%
Q4 - 1:22HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2103
7.0%
108
93.0%
Q4 - 1:22HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2103
7.8%
107
92.2%
Q4 - 1:22PistonsJerami Grant personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)103
8.8%
106
91.2%
Q4 - 1:22PistonsJerami Grant turnover (lost ball) (Maurice Harkless steals)103
5.0%
106
95.0%
Q4 - 1:27PistonsDerrick Rose defensive rebound103
18.1%
106
81.9%
Q4 - 1:31HeatKendrick Nunn misses two point jump shot103
16.1%
106
83.9%
Q4 - 1:43PistonsWayne Ellington makes three point pullup jump shot (Derrick Rose assists)103
12.5%
106
87.5%
Q4 - 1:49HeatGoran Dragic turnover (bad pass) (Mason Plumlee steals)100
5.9%
106
94.1%
Q4 - 2:04PistonsBlake Griffin makes two point tip layup100
3.3%
106
96.7%
Q4 - 2:05PistonsBlake Griffin offensive rebound98
2.5%
106
97.5%
Q4 - 2:10PistonsJerami Grant misses three point jump shot98
1.6%
106
98.4%
Q4 - 2:26HeatGoran Dragic turnover (offensive foul)98
2.5%
106
97.5%
Q4 - 2:26HeatGoran Dragic offensive foul (Wayne Ellington draws the foul)98
1.3%
106
98.7%
Q4 - 2:38HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound98
1.3%
106
98.7%
Q4 - 2:40PistonsBlake Griffin misses three point jump shot98
1.6%
106
98.4%
Q4 - 2:55HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 298
3.3%
106
96.7%
Q4 - 2:55HeatBam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 298
3.6%
105
96.4%
Q4 - 2:55PistonsMason Plumlee personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)98
2.7%
105
97.3%
Q4 - 3:05PistonsBlake Griffin turnover (double dribble)98
2.9%
105
97.1%
Q4 - 3:17HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 298
4.9%
105
95.1%
Q4 - 3:17HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 298
5.3%
104
94.7%
Q4 - 3:17PistonsMason Plumlee personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)98
5.8%
103
94.2%
Q4 - 3:30PistonsJerami Grant makes two point cutting dunk (Derrick Rose assists)98
6.2%
103
93.8%
Q4 - 3:44PistonsBlake Griffin defensive rebound96
6.8%
103
93.2%
Q4 - 3:49HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot96
6.1%
103
93.9%
Q4 - 3:57HeatKendrick Nunn defensive rebound96
4.7%
103
95.3%
Q4 - 4:02PistonsJerami Grant misses two point stepback jump shot96
5.2%
103
94.8%
Q4 - 4:17HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot (Maurice Harkless assists)96
6.6%
103
93.4%
Q4 - 4:31PistonsWayne Ellington personal foul (Goran Dragic draws the foul)96
8.9%
101
91.1%
Q4 - 4:48PistonsDerrick Rose makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jerami Grant assists)96
8.8%
101
91.2%
Q4 - 5:00HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Kendrick Nunn assists)94
6.4%
101
93.6%
Q4 - 5:01HeatMaurice Harkless defensive rebound94
14.5%
98
85.5%
Q4 - 5:07PistonsMason Plumlee misses two point alley-oop dunk94
15.7%
98
84.3%
Q4 - 5:12HeatBam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Svi Mykhailiuk steals)94
19.1%
98
80.9%
Q4 - 5:25PistonsJerami Grant makes regular free throw 2 of 294
14.3%
98
85.7%
Q4 - 5:25PistonsJerami Grant makes regular free throw 1 of 293
13.6%
98
86.4%
Q4 - 5:25HeatKendrick Nunn personal foul (Jerami Grant draws the foul)92
12.8%
98
87.2%
Q4 - 5:37HeatDuncan Robinson turnover (out of bounds step)92
11.0%
98
89.0%
Q4 - 5:49PistonsMason Plumlee makes two point alley-oop dunk (Jerami Grant assists)92
8.0%
98
92.0%
Q4 - 6:07HeatKendrick Nunn makes two point pullup jump shot90
7.6%
98
92.4%
Q4 - 6:20PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)90
9.5%
96
90.5%
Q4 - 6:24HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound90
9.4%
96
90.6%
Q4 - 6:28PistonsKelly Olynyk blocks Blake Griffin's two point driving layup90
10.4%
96
89.6%
Q4 - 6:46HeatDuncan Robinson turnover (traveling)90
12.7%
96
87.3%
Q4 - 6:48HeatAndre Iguodala defensive rebound90
9.4%
96
90.6%
Q4 - 6:55PistonsGoran Dragic blocks Delon Wright's two point cutting layup90
10.3%
96
89.7%
Q4 - 7:10HeatAndre Iguodala makes two point cutting layup (Duncan Robinson assists)90
14.2%
96
85.8%
Q4 - 7:16HeatGoran Dragic defensive rebound90
17.3%
94
82.7%
Q4 - 7:19PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk misses two point driving layup90
18.6%
94
81.4%
Q4 - 7:31HeatKelly Olynyk turnover (traveling)90
22.0%
94
78.0%
Q4 - 7:37PistonsBlake Griffin personal foul (Kelly Olynyk draws the foul)90
17.2%
94
82.8%
Q4 - 7:48HeatPrecious Achiuwa defensive rebound90
17.2%
94
82.8%
Q4 - 7:51PistonsWayne Ellington misses regular free throw 1 of 190
17.8%
94
82.2%
Q4 - 7:51HeatDuncan Robinson shooting foul (Wayne Ellington draws the foul)90
20.7%
94
79.3%
Q4 - 7:59HeatKelly Olynyk personal foul (Blake Griffin draws the foul)87
11.2%
94
88.8%
Q4 - 8:10HeatKelly Olynyk makes two point reverse layup (Andre Iguodala assists)87
12.2%
94
87.8%
Q4 - 8:22PistonsMason Plumlee makes two point dunk (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)87
15.0%
92
85.0%
Q4 - 8:47HeatKelly Olynyk turnover (offensive foul)85
12.1%
92
87.9%
Q4 - 8:47HeatKelly Olynyk offensive foul (Charge) (Svi Mykhailiuk draws the foul)85
9.6%
92
90.4%
Q4 - 9:09PistonsWayne Ellington makes three point jump shot (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)85
10.4%
92
89.6%
Q4 - 9:13PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound82
6.9%
92
93.1%
Q4 - 9:17HeatKendrick Nunn misses two point driving layup82
6.4%
92
93.6%
Q4 - 9:22HeatKendrick Nunn defensive rebound82
5.4%
92
94.6%
Q4 - 9:25PistonsBlake Griffin misses three point jump shot82
5.8%
92
94.2%
Q4 - 9:35HeatKelly Olynyk personal foul (Blake Griffin draws the foul)82
6.9%
92
93.1%
Q4 - 9:41PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound82
6.9%
92
93.1%
Q4 - 9:44HeatBam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot82
6.4%
92
93.6%
Q4 - 9:53HeatAndre Iguodala defensive rebound82
5.4%
92
94.6%
Q4 - 9:57PistonsDerrick Rose misses two point floating jump shot82
5.8%
92
94.2%
Q4 - 10:17PistonsMason Plumlee defensive rebound82
7.7%
92
92.3%
Q4 - 10:20HeatAndre Iguodala misses three point jump shot82
7.2%
92
92.8%
Q4 - 10:33PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk personal foul (Kelly Olynyk draws the foul)82
6.2%
92
93.8%
Q4 - 10:39PistonsDerrick Rose makes two point driving floating jump shot82
6.2%
92
93.8%
Q4 - 10:57HeatBam Adebayo makes two point stepback jump shot80
5.1%
92
94.9%
Q4 - 11:06HeatKelly Olynyk defensive rebound80
6.9%
90
93.1%
Q4 - 11:09PistonsJosh Jackson misses two point driving layup80
7.3%
90
92.7%
Q4 - 11:25HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot80
8.3%
90
91.7%
Q4 - 11:39PistonsDerrick Rose turnover (out of bounds bad pass)80
10.1%
88
89.9%
Q4 - 11:49HeatBam Adebayo personal foul (Svi Mykhailiuk draws the foul)80
12.2%
88
87.8%
Q4 - 11:50HeatBam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Svi Mykhailiuk steals)80
12.2%
88
87.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0End of 3rd Quarter.80
10.1%
88
89.9%
Q3 - 0:00.1HeatHeat offensive rebound80
11.1%
88
88.9%
Q3 - 0:00.1HeatAndre Iguodala misses three point jump shot80
12.5%
88
87.5%
Q3 - 0:01.6PistonsSekou Doumbouya turnover (bad pass) (Andre Iguodala steals)80
11.1%
88
88.9%
Q3 - 0:02.0HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 280
13.1%
88
86.9%
Q3 - 0:02.0HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 280
13.6%
87
86.4%
Q3 - 0:02.0PistonsIsaiah Stewart personal foul (Loose ball) (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)80
14.3%
86
85.7%
Q3 - 0:05.3HeatHeat defensive rebound80
15.7%
86
84.3%
Q3 - 0:05.3PistonsKelly Olynyk blocks Isaiah Stewart's two point tip layup80
16.5%
86
83.5%
Q3 - 0:07.6PistonsIsaiah Stewart offensive rebound80
18.4%
86
81.6%
Q3 - 0:10.3PistonsMaurice Harkless blocks Jerami Grant's two point driving layup80
16.4%
86
83.6%
Q3 - 0:24.9PistonsJerami Grant defensive rebound80
18.4%
86
81.6%
Q3 - 0:28.6HeatKelly Olynyk misses three point jump shot80
17.5%
86
82.5%
Q3 - 0:35.6HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound80
15.6%
86
84.4%
Q3 - 0:39.6PistonsDerrick Rose misses three point jump shot80
16.4%
86
83.6%
Q3 - 0:53.9HeatMaurice Harkless makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)80
18.3%
86
81.7%
Q3 - 1:15PistonsDerrick Rose makes two point stepback jump shot80
25.6%
83
74.4%
Q3 - 1:35HeatKendrick Nunn makes two point pullup jump shot78
22.4%
83
77.6%
Q3 - 1:46HeatMaurice Harkless defensive rebound78
25.6%
81
74.4%
Q3 - 1:51PistonsSekou Doumbouya misses regular free throw 2 of 278
26.1%
81
73.9%
Q3 - 1:51PistonsSekou Doumbouya makes regular free throw 1 of 278
28.5%
81
71.5%
Q3 - 1:51HeatPrecious Achiuwa shooting foul (Sekou Doumbouya draws the foul)77
27.5%
81
72.5%
Q3 - 2:03PistonsPistons defensive rebound77
26.4%
81
73.6%
Q3 - 2:08HeatGoran Dragic misses two point driving layup77
25.3%
81
74.7%
Q3 - 2:24PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 2 of 277
22.7%
81
77.3%
Q3 - 2:24PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 1 of 276
22.3%
81
77.7%
Q3 - 2:24HeatKendrick Nunn shooting foul (Derrick Rose draws the foul)75
21.8%
81
78.2%
Q3 - 2:43HeatKendrick Nunn makes two point pullup jump shot75
20.0%
81
80.0%
Q3 - 2:53PistonsJosh Jackson makes three point jump shot (Jerami Grant assists)75
22.6%
79
77.4%
Q3 - 3:11HeatPrecious Achiuwa makes two point cutting layup (Kendrick Nunn assists)72
18.0%
79
82.0%
Q3 - 3:17HeatPrecious Achiuwa defensive rebound72
20.3%
77
79.7%
Q3 - 3:22PistonsSekou Doumbouya misses three point jump shot72
21.3%
77
78.7%
Q3 - 3:31HeatPrecious Achiuwa personal foul (Loose ball) (Isaiah Stewart draws the foul)72
23.7%
77
76.3%
Q3 - 3:31PistonsPistons offensive rebound72
23.7%
77
76.3%
Q3 - 3:32PistonsJosh Jackson misses three point jump shot72
21.3%
77
78.7%
Q3 - 3:41PistonsDerrick Rose defensive rebound72
23.7%
77
76.3%
Q3 - 3:45HeatKendrick Nunn misses two point floating jump shot72
22.6%
77
77.4%
Q3 - 3:58PistonsSekou Doumbouya personal foul (Duncan Robinson draws the foul)72
20.3%
77
79.7%
Q3 - 4:11PistonsJerami Grant makes two point jump shot72
20.8%
77
79.2%
Q3 - 4:25HeatBam Adebayo makes two point turnaround jump shot70
18.6%
77
81.4%
Q3 - 4:48HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound70
20.7%
75
79.3%
Q3 - 4:50PistonsBlake Griffin misses three point jump shot70
21.7%
75
78.3%
Q3 - 5:04HeatKendrick Nunn makes two point driving layup70
24.7%
75
75.3%
Q3 - 5:16PistonsMason Plumlee personal foul (Duncan Robinson draws the foul)70
27.5%
73
72.5%
Q3 - 5:19PistonsMason Plumlee turnover (bad pass) (Bam Adebayo steals)70
27.5%
73
72.5%
Q3 - 5:35HeatBam Adebayo turnover (offensive foul)70
31.0%
73
69.0%
Q3 - 5:35HeatBam Adebayo offensive foul (Off the ball) (Josh Jackson draws the foul)70
27.5%
73
72.5%
Q3 - 5:46PistonsDerrick Rose turnover (traveling)70
27.4%
73
72.6%
Q3 - 6:03HeatKelly Olynyk makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)70
31.1%
73
68.9%
Q3 - 6:07HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound70
37.7%
70
62.3%
Q3 - 6:11PistonsDerrick Rose misses three point jump shot70
38.9%
70
61.1%
Q3 - 6:37HeatKelly Olynyk makes two point reverse layup (Bam Adebayo assists)70
41.7%
70
58.3%
Q3 - 6:47PistonsJerami Grant makes two point pullup jump shot70
45.2%
68
54.8%
Q3 - 7:05PistonsPistons defensive rebound68
41.5%
68
58.5%
Q3 - 7:07HeatGoran Dragic misses three point jump shot68
40.2%
68
59.8%
Q3 - 7:13HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound68
37.3%
68
62.7%
Q3 - 7:17PistonsWayne Ellington misses three point jump shot68
38.6%
68
61.4%
Q3 - 7:34HeatGoran Dragic makes three point jump shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)68
41.5%
68
58.5%
Q3 - 7:38HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound68
48.3%
65
51.7%
Q3 - 7:41HeatKelly Olynyk misses three point jump shot68
51.3%
65
48.7%
Q3 - 8:08PistonsJerami Grant makes two point cutting dunk (Wayne Ellington assists)68
47.8%
65
52.2%
Q3 - 8:32HeatGoran Dragic makes two point turnaround jump shot66
44.9%
65
55.1%
Q3 - 8:50PistonsJerami Grant turnover (offensive foul)66
47.9%
63
52.1%
Q3 - 8:50PistonsJerami Grant offensive foul (Charge) (Goran Dragic draws the foul)66
52.2%
63
47.8%
Q3 - 9:01HeatGoran Dragic personal foul (Jerami Grant draws the foul)66
51.4%
63
48.6%
Q3 - 9:20HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)66
51.4%
63
48.6%
Q3 - 9:28HeatKelly Olynyk defensive rebound66
58.0%
60
42.0%
Q3 - 9:32PistonsBlake Griffin misses three point pullup jump shot66
59.2%
60
40.8%
Q3 - 9:41HeatBam Adebayo personal foul (Loose ball) (Blake Griffin draws the foul)66
61.9%
60
38.1%
Q3 - 9:41PistonsPistons defensive rebound66
61.9%
60
38.1%
Q3 - 9:41HeatBam Adebayo misses two point driving layup66
60.7%
60
39.3%
Q3 - 9:48PistonsJerami Grant makes regular free throw 2 of 266
58.0%
60
42.0%
Q3 - 9:48PistonsJerami Grant makes regular free throw 1 of 265
57.4%
60
42.6%
Q3 - 9:48HeatBam Adebayo shooting foul (Jerami Grant draws the foul)64
56.6%
60
43.4%
Q3 - 9:59PistonsDelon Wright offensive rebound64
55.0%
60
45.0%
Q3 - 10:02PistonsDelon Wright misses two point driving floating jump shot64
51.5%
60
48.5%
Q3 - 10:14HeatKelly Olynyk makes two point floating jump shot (Maurice Harkless assists)64
54.3%
60
45.7%
Q3 - 10:34PistonsWayne Ellington makes three point stepback jump shot (Jerami Grant assists)64
57.2%
58
42.8%
Q3 - 10:58HeatBam Adebayo turnover (out of bounds bad pass)61
50.9%
58
49.1%
Q3 - 11:02PistonsJerami Grant personal foul (Duncan Robinson draws the foul)61
46.6%
58
53.4%
Q3 - 11:10PistonsMason Plumlee turnover (3-second violation)61
46.6%
58
53.4%
Q3 - 11:18HeatBam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Mason Plumlee steals)61
50.2%
58
49.8%
Q3 - 11:18HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound61
46.6%
58
53.4%
Q3 - 11:24PistonsJerami Grant misses three point jump shot61
47.7%
58
52.3%
Q3 - 11:40HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 161
50.3%
58
49.7%
Q3 - 11:40PistonsMason Plumlee shooting foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)61
51.0%
57
49.0%
Q3 - 11:46HeatKelly Olynyk defensive rebound61
56.7%
55
43.3%
Q3 - 11:49PistonsWayne Ellington misses three point jump shot61
57.8%
55
42.2%
Q2 - 0:00.0End of 1st Half.61
60.2%
55
39.8%
Q2 - 0:00.1HeatHeat offensive rebound61
56.5%
55
43.5%
Q2 - 0:00.2HeatBam Adebayo misses three point jump shot61
58.1%
55
41.9%
Q2 - 0:02.9PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 2 of 261
56.5%
55
43.5%
Q2 - 0:02.9PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 1 of 260
56.1%
55
43.9%
Q2 - 0:02.9HeatPrecious Achiuwa personal foul (Derrick Rose draws the foul)59
55.6%
55
44.4%
Q2 - 0:17.7HeatGoran Dragic makes regular free throw 2 of 259
52.4%
55
47.6%
Q2 - 0:17.7HeatGoran Dragic makes regular free throw 1 of 259
53.0%
54
47.0%
Q2 - 0:17.7PistonsDerrick Rose personal foul (Goran Dragic draws the foul)59
53.7%
53
46.3%
Q2 - 0:31.6PistonsJerami Grant makes three point jump shot (Derrick Rose assists)59
56.5%
53
43.5%
Q2 - 0:44.2HeatKendrick Nunn turnover (offensive foul)56
49.2%
53
50.8%
Q2 - 0:44.2HeatKendrick Nunn offensive foul (Jerami Grant draws the foul)56
46.8%
53
53.2%
Q2 - 0:58.4HeatHeat defensive rebound56
46.8%
53
53.2%
Q2 - 1:00PistonsMason Plumlee misses regular free throw 2 of 256
47.1%
53
52.9%
Q2 - 1:00PistonsMason Plumlee misses regular free throw 1 of 256
48.9%
53
51.1%
Q2 - 1:00HeatGoran Dragic shooting foul (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)56
50.8%
53
49.2%
Q2 - 1:03HeatBam Adebayo turnover (bad pass) (Derrick Rose steals)56
48.7%
53
51.3%
Q2 - 1:09PistonsWayne Ellington personal foul (Duncan Robinson draws the foul)56
46.9%
53
53.1%
Q2 - 1:29PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 2 of 256
46.9%
53
53.1%
Q2 - 1:29PistonsDerrick Rose makes regular free throw 1 of 255
46.4%
53
53.6%
Q2 - 1:29HeatMaurice Harkless shooting foul (Derrick Rose draws the foul)54
45.9%
53
54.1%
Q2 - 1:41PistonsPistons offensive rebound54
42.5%
53
57.5%
Q2 - 1:41PistonsKendrick Nunn blocks Jerami Grant's two point running layup54
41.2%
53
58.8%
Q2 - 1:43PistonsJerami Grant defensive rebound54
42.5%
53
57.5%
Q2 - 1:46HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot54
41.9%
53
58.1%
Q2 - 1:48HeatKendrick Nunn offensive rebound54
40.7%
53
59.3%
Q2 - 1:51HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot54
41.9%
53
58.1%
Q2 - 1:53HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound54
40.7%
53
59.3%
Q2 - 1:56HeatKendrick Nunn misses three point jump shot54
41.9%
53
58.1%
Q2 - 2:10PistonsWayne Ellington makes regular free throw 3 of 354
39.8%
53
60.2%
Q2 - 2:10PistonsWayne Ellington makes regular free throw 2 of 353
39.4%
53
60.6%
Q2 - 2:10PistonsWayne Ellington makes regular free throw 1 of 352
38.9%
53
61.1%
Q2 - 2:10HeatMaurice Harkless shooting foul (Wayne Ellington draws the foul)51
38.5%
53
61.5%
Q2 - 2:24HeatGoran Dragic makes two point pullup jump shot51
34.3%
53
65.7%
Q2 - 2:38PistonsPistons turnover (shot clock violation)51
37.0%
51
63.0%
Q2 - 3:05HeatPrecious Achiuwa makes two point bank jump shot (Goran Dragic assists)51
39.7%
51
60.3%
Q2 - 3:14HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound51
42.1%
49
57.9%
Q2 - 3:18PistonsJerami Grant misses three point jump shot51
43.1%
49
56.9%
Q2 - 3:30PistonsWayne Ellington defensive rebound51
45.4%
49
54.6%
Q2 - 3:34HeatGoran Dragic misses three point jump shot51
44.4%
49
55.6%
Q2 - 3:39PistonsWayne Ellington turnover (bad pass) (Maurice Harkless steals)51
42.2%
49
57.8%
Q2 - 3:57HeatPrecious Achiuwa personal foul (Loose ball) (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)51
45.4%
49
54.6%
Q2 - 3:57PistonsPistons defensive rebound51
45.4%
49
54.6%
Q2 - 3:57HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot51
44.4%
49
55.6%
Q2 - 3:58HeatPrecious Achiuwa offensive rebound51
42.2%
49
57.8%
Q2 - 4:03HeatGoran Dragic misses three point jump shot51
43.9%
49
56.1%
Q2 - 4:13HeatHeat defensive rebound51
42.0%
49
58.0%
Q2 - 4:14PistonsWayne Ellington misses three point jump shot51
42.8%
49
57.2%
Q2 - 4:29HeatGoran Dragic makes two point driving layup51
44.7%
49
55.3%
Q2 - 4:41PistonsMason Plumlee makes regular free throw 1 of 151
47.5%
47
52.5%
Q2 - 4:41HeatPrecious Achiuwa shooting foul (Mason Plumlee draws the foul)50
46.5%
47
53.5%
Q2 - 4:57HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Maurice Harkless assists)48
42.0%
47
58.0%
Q2 - 5:03HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound48
46.9%
44
53.1%
Q2 - 5:06PistonsJerami Grant misses two point pullup jump shot48
47.9%
44
52.1%
Q2 - 5:24HeatGoran Dragic makes two point pullup jump shot48
50.2%
44
49.8%
Q2 - 5:33PistonsPistons turnover (shot clock violation)48
52.4%
42
47.6%
Q2 - 5:33PistonsPistons offensive rebound48
55.6%
42
44.4%
Q2 - 5:34PistonsMason Plumlee misses two point hook shot48
53.4%
42
46.6%
Q2 - 5:49PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk offensive rebound48
55.6%
42
44.4%
Q2 - 5:49PistonsMason Plumlee misses two point putback layup48
53.4%
42
46.6%
Q2 - 5:50PistonsMason Plumlee offensive rebound48
55.6%
42
44.4%
Q2 - 5:53PistonsJosh Jackson misses three point jump shot48
53.4%
42
46.6%
Q2 - 6:01PistonsMason Plumlee offensive rebound48
55.2%
42
44.8%
Q2 - 6:06PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk misses three point jump shot48
53.0%
42
47.0%
Q2 - 6:29HeatKendrick Nunn makes three point stepback jump shot48
55.3%
42
44.7%
Q2 - 6:33HeatKendrick Nunn defensive rebound48
59.9%
39
40.1%
Q2 - 6:38PistonsJosh Jackson misses three point jump shot48
60.9%
39
39.1%
Q2 - 6:39PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk offensive rebound48
63.1%
39
36.9%
Q2 - 6:47PistonsBlake Griffin misses three point jump shot48
60.9%
39
39.1%
Q2 - 6:56PistonsMason Plumlee offensive rebound48
63.1%
39
36.9%
Q2 - 6:59PistonsDelon Wright misses two point driving floating jump shot48
60.9%
39
39.1%
Q2 - 7:13HeatKendrick Nunn makes two point running layup (Bam Adebayo assists)48
62.0%
39
38.0%
Q2 - 7:14HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound48
64.3%
37
35.7%
Q2 - 7:19PistonsSvi Mykhailiuk misses three point jump shot48
65.1%
37
34.9%
Q2 - 7:30PistonsBlake Griffin defensive rebound48
66.8%
37
33.2%
Q2 - 7:32HeatGabe Vincent misses two point driving layup48
66.1%
37
33.9%
Q2 - 7:51HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound48
64.4%
37
35.6%
Q2 - 7:53PistonsJosh Jackson misses regular free throw 1 of 148
64.7%
37
35.3%
Q2 - 7:53HeatDuncan Robinson shooting foul (Josh Jackson draws the foul)48
66.1%
37
33.9%
Q2 - 8:15HeatBam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot46
61.5%
37
38.5%
Q2 - 8:25PistonsJosh Jackson makes two point running layup (Derrick Rose assists)46
63.9%
35
36.1%
Q2 - 8:28PistonsDerrick Rose defensive rebound44
61.6%
35
38.4%
Q2 - 8:32HeatKendrick Nunn misses two point jump shot44
60.8%
35
39.2%
Q2 - 8:49PistonsJosh Jackson makes three point jump shot (Mason Plumlee assists)44
59.0%
35
41.0%
Q2 - 9:05HeatAndre Iguodala turnover (out of bounds bad pass)41
53.4%
35
46.6%
Q2 - 9:09PistonsBlake Griffin turnover (bad pass) (Kendrick Nunn steals)41
50.8%
35
49.2%
Q2 - 9:28HeatKendrick Nunn makes three point jump shot (Gabe Vincent assists)41
53.4%
35
46.6%
Q2 - 9:44PistonsDerrick Rose makes three point jump shot (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)41
58.3%
32
41.7%
Q2 - 9:53HeatAndre Iguodala personal foul (Derrick Rose draws the foul)38
53.5%
32
46.5%
Q2 - 10:09HeatBam Adebayo makes two point alley-oop dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)38
53.2%
32
46.8%
Q2 - 10:25PistonsJosh Jackson makes two point driving layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)38
55.4%
30
44.6%
Q2 - 10:53HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)36
53.2%
30
46.8%
Q2 - 11:01PistonsJosh Jackson turnover (lost ball) (Kendrick Nunn steals)36
57.2%
27
42.8%
Q2 - 11:18HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Andre Iguodala assists)36
59.4%
27
40.6%
Q2 - 11:22PistonsSaddiq Bey turnover (bad pass) (Andre Iguodala steals)36
64.1%
24
35.9%
Q2 - 11:35HeatKendrick Nunn turnover (out of bounds bad pass)36
66.1%
24
33.9%
Q2 - 11:35HeatKendrick Nunn defensive rebound36
64.1%
24
35.9%
Q2 - 11:39PistonsJosh Jackson misses two point jump shot36
64.7%
24
35.3%
Q1 - 0:00.0End of 1st Quarter.36
66.2%
24
33.8%
Q1 - 0:00.1PistonsPistons offensive rebound36
65.0%
24
35.0%
Q1 - 0:00.4PistonsSaddiq Bey misses three point jump shot36
63.8%
24
36.2%
Q1 - 0:14.6HeatBam Adebayo makes two point cutting dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)36
65.0%
24
35.0%
Q1 - 0:25.0HeatHeat offensive rebound36
67.6%
22
32.4%
Q1 - 0:25.0HeatIsaiah Stewart blocks Kendrick Nunn's two point driving layup36
68.7%
22
31.3%
Q1 - 0:32.3HeatAndre Iguodala defensive rebound36
67.6%
22
32.4%
Q1 - 0:36.8PistonsJosh Jackson misses three point jump shot36
68.1%
22
31.9%
Q1 - 0:40.2PistonsSekou Doumbouya defensive rebound36
69.2%
22
30.8%
Q1 - 0:43.8HeatPrecious Achiuwa misses two point driving layup36
68.7%
22
31.3%
Q1 - 0:52.5PistonsDerrick Rose makes two point driving layup36
67.6%
22
32.4%
Q1 - 0:57.0PistonsIsaiah Stewart defensive rebound34
65.1%
22
34.9%
Q1 - 0:59.6HeatGabe Vincent misses three point jump shot34
64.6%
22
35.4%
Q1 - 1:19PistonsDerrick Rose makes two point driving layup34
63.2%
22
36.8%
Q1 - 1:28HeatPrecious Achiuwa makes two point turnaround bank jump shot32
60.6%
22
39.4%
Q1 - 1:45PistonsSekou Doumbouya turnover (out of bounds step)32
63.2%
20
36.8%
Q1 - 1:54PistonsSaddiq Bey defensive rebound32
64.9%
20
35.1%
Q1 - 1:57HeatPrecious Achiuwa misses regular free throw 2 of 232
64.7%
20
35.3%
Q1 - 1:57HeatPrecious Achiuwa misses regular free throw 1 of 232
63.4%
20
36.6%
Q1 - 1:57PistonsSaddiq Bey shooting foul (Precious Achiuwa draws the foul)32
62.0%
20
38.0%
Q1 - 2:02HeatGabe Vincent defensive rebound32
62.3%
20
37.7%
Q1 - 2:07PistonsDerrick Rose misses two point pullup jump shot32
62.9%
20
37.1%
Q1 - 2:24HeatGabe Vincent makes three point jump shot (Kendrick Nunn assists)32
64.4%
20
35.6%
Q1 - 2:36PistonsDerrick Rose turnover (discontinue dribble)32
68.5%
17
31.5%
Q1 - 2:40HeatMaurice Harkless personal foul (Jerami Grant draws the foul)32
70.3%
17
29.7%
Q1 - 2:53HeatGoran Dragic makes two point driving reverse layup32
70.3%
17
29.7%
Q1 - 2:59HeatGoran Dragic defensive rebound32
72.3%
15
27.7%
Q1 - 3:04PistonsJerami Grant misses three point jump shot32
71.9%
15
28.1%
Q1 - 3:18HeatKendrick Nunn makes two point driving floating jump shot (Goran Dragic assists)32
73.3%
15
26.7%
Q1 - 3:34HeatPrecious Achiuwa defensive rebound32
74.7%
13
25.3%
Q1 - 3:38PistonsSekou Doumbouya misses two point running layup32
75.3%
13
24.7%
Q1 - 3:44HeatGoran Dragic turnover (bad pass) (Derrick Rose steals)32
76.6%
13
23.4%
Q1 - 3:55PistonsJerami Grant makes two point pullup jump shot (Isaiah Stewart assists)32
74.8%
13
25.2%
Q1 - 4:08HeatPrecious Achiuwa makes two point putback layup30
72.2%
13
27.8%
Q1 - 4:09HeatPrecious Achiuwa offensive rebound30
73.6%
11
26.4%
Q1 - 4:11HeatJosh Jackson blocks Goran Dragic's two point driving layup30
75.0%
11
25.0%
Q1 - 4:24PistonsJerami Grant makes two point tip dunk30
73.7%
11
26.3%
Q1 - 4:24PistonsJerami Grant offensive rebound28
72.3%
11
27.7%
Q1 - 4:25PistonsDerrick Rose misses three point jump shot28
70.9%
11
29.1%
Q1 - 4:42HeatAndre Iguodala makes regular free throw 2 of 228
72.3%
11
27.7%
Q1 - 4:42HeatAndre Iguodala makes regular free throw 1 of 228
72.9%
10
27.1%
Q1 - 4:42PistonsIsaiah Stewart shooting foul (Andre Iguodala draws the foul)28
73.7%
9
26.3%
Q1 - 4:51PistonsBlake Griffin personal foul (Goran Dragic draws the foul)28
73.7%
9
26.3%
Q1 - 4:59PistonsWayne Ellington makes three point jump shot (Jerami Grant assists)28
73.8%
9
26.2%
Q1 - 5:12PistonsMason Plumlee defensive rebound25
68.9%
9
31.1%
Q1 - 5:15HeatKendrick Nunn misses three point jump shot25
68.3%
9
31.7%
Q1 - 5:31PistonsWayne Ellington makes three point pullup jump shot (Mason Plumlee assists)25
67.1%
9
32.9%
Q1 - 5:37PistonsWayne Ellington defensive rebound22
63.5%
9
36.5%
Q1 - 5:39HeatMaurice Harkless misses three point jump shot22
62.9%
9
37.1%
Q1 - 5:50PistonsJerami Grant personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)22
61.5%
9
38.5%
Q1 - 6:00PistonsBlake Griffin makes three point jump shot (Delon Wright assists)22
61.5%
9
38.5%
Q1 - 6:10HeatBam Adebayo turnover (bad pass) (Delon Wright steals)19
56.6%
9
43.4%
Q1 - 6:22PistonsMason Plumlee makes two point driving dunk (Jerami Grant assists)19
54.8%
9
45.2%
Q1 - 6:41HeatGoran Dragic makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot17
52.8%
9
47.2%
Q1 - 6:56PistonsDelon Wright makes two point driving finger roll layup17
54.8%
7
45.2%
Q1 - 7:06HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)15
52.2%
7
47.8%
Q1 - 7:35PistonsJerami Grant makes three point jump shot (Blake Griffin assists)15
55.8%
4
44.2%
Q1 - 7:56HeatGoran Dragic makes two point driving layup12
52.2%
4
47.8%
Q1 - 8:00HeatGoran Dragic defensive rebound12
54.0%
2
46.0%
Q1 - 8:04PistonsWayne Ellington misses three point jump shot12
54.4%
2
45.6%
Q1 - 8:14PistonsDelon Wright defensive rebound12
55.9%
2
44.1%
Q1 - 8:19HeatJerami Grant blocks Kelly Olynyk's three point jump shot12
55.2%
2
44.8%
Q1 - 8:38PistonsMason Plumlee makes two point cutting dunk (Wayne Ellington assists)12
53.7%
2
46.3%
Q1 - 8:48PistonsDelon Wright defensive rebound10
52.1%
2
47.9%
Q1 - 8:53HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot10
51.5%
2
48.5%
Q1 - 9:09PistonsJerami Grant makes regular free throw 1 of 110
49.8%
2
50.2%
Q1 - 9:09HeatKZ Okpala shooting foul (Jerami Grant draws the foul)9
49.4%
2
50.6%
Q1 - 9:19PistonsBlake Griffin defensive rebound7
46.4%
2
53.6%
Q1 - 9:22HeatGoran Dragic misses three point jump shot7
45.7%
2
54.3%
Q1 - 9:29PistonsMason Plumlee personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)7
44.1%
2
55.9%
Q1 - 9:31PistonsBlake Griffin personal foul (Kelly Olynyk draws the foul)7
44.1%
2
55.9%
Q1 - 9:45PistonsMason Plumlee makes two point tip layup7
44.2%
2
55.8%
Q1 - 9:45PistonsMason Plumlee offensive rebound5
42.7%
2
57.3%
Q1 - 9:52PistonsWayne Ellington misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot5
41.1%
2
58.9%
Q1 - 10:00HeatKZ Okpala personal foul (Blake Griffin draws the foul)5
42.7%
2
57.3%
Q1 - 10:07HeatDuncan Robinson turnover (bad pass) (Delon Wright steals)5
42.3%
2
57.7%
Q1 - 10:28PistonsMason Plumlee makes two point turnaround hook shot5
40.3%
2
59.7%
Q1 - 10:48PistonsBlake Griffin defensive rebound3
38.7%
2
61.3%
Q1 - 10:52HeatKelly Olynyk misses three point jump shot3
38.1%
2
61.9%
Q1 - 11:05PistonsWayne Ellington makes three point jump shot (Mason Plumlee assists)3
36.6%
2
63.4%
Q1 - 11:14PistonsMason Plumlee defensive rebound0
33.4%
2
66.6%
Q1 - 11:17HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot0
32.8%
2
67.2%
Q1 - 11:22PistonsWayne Ellington turnover (bad pass) (Bam Adebayo steals)0
31.6%
2
68.4%
Q1 - 11:43HeatBam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Goran Dragic assists)0
33.4%
2
66.6%
Q1 - 12:00Mason Plumlee vs. Bam Adebayo (Goran Dragic gains possession)0
34.9%
0
65.1%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DET
1.14 56.9%
MIA
1.30 64.9%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DET
17
28
61%
MIA
15
22
68%
Midrange
DET
8
17
47%
MIA
16
23
70%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DET
13
19.5
37
35%
53%
MIA
12
18.0
30
40%
60%
Free Throws
DET
18
24
75%
MIA
15
19
79%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DET logo Pistons
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Grant2764%13.5 / 21
W. Ellington2492%12.0 / 13
D. Rose2170%10.5 / 15
M. Plumlee1568%7.5 / 11
J. Jackson1255%6.0 / 11
B. Griffin531%2.5 / 8
D. Wright225%1.0 / 4
S. Doumbouya117%0.5 / 3
S. Mykhailiuk0-0.0 / 3
I. Stewart0-0.0 / 1
S. Bey0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo2870%14.0 / 20
G. Dragic2265%11.0 / 17
D. Robinson18100%9.0 / 9
K. Nunn1860%9.0 / 15
K. Olynyk956%4.5 / 8
P. Achiuwa867%4.0 / 6
A. Iguodala450%2.0 / 4
M. Harkless375%1.5 / 2
G. Vincent350%1.5 / 3
K. Okpala0-0.0 / 0
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DET
80
+14
-16
94
MIA
79
+8
-18
87
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DET
1.14 56.9%
MIA
1.30 64.9%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
108.1
111.1
DET 111.5
MIA 116.5 +5.0
Pace
97.8
96.7
DET 88.1
MIA 108.3 +20.2
Avg. Poss. Time
14.9
14.7
DET 16.4
MIA 13.3 +3.1
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
51.9%
54.6%
DET 54.3%
MIA 65.3% +11.0%
TO %
14.3%
13.7%
DET 16.3% +1.5%
MIA 17.8%
ORB %
22.0%
19.4%
DET 24.4% +5.9%
MIA 18.5%
FTrt
27.3
25.2
DET 29.3 +4.0
MIA 25.3
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
62.6%
67.1%
DET 63.2% +9.7%
MIA 53.5%
STL %
7.4%
8.2%
DET 8.3% +0.1%
MIA 8.2%
BLK %
9.3%
8.5%
DET 6.7%
MIA 13.3% +6.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
54.3%
56.5%
DET 56.9%
MIA 64.9% +8.0%
Rim FG%
59.7%
64.8%
DET 60.7%
MIA 68.2% +7.5%
Mid FG%
37.4%
41.8%
DET 47.1%
MIA 69.6% +22.5%
3P %
35.1%
35.8%
DET 35.1%
MIA 40.0% +4.9%
FT %
75.9%
79.0%
DET 75.0%
MIA 78.9% +3.9%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
38.8%
33.3%
DET 34.1% +4.8%
MIA 29.3%
Mid Att. %
22.7%
23.5%
DET 20.7% +9.9%
MIA 30.7%
3P Att. %
38.5%
43.2%
DET 45.1% +5.1%
MIA 40.0%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsDETMIA
Possessions9697
Possession Minutes26.221.5
Points107113
Rebounds3236
Assists2423
Steals88
Blocks36
Turnovers (Team)16 (2)18 (0)
Fouls2327
Off. Rebounds (Team)10 (4)5 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)22 (4)31 (3)
Field Goals38-8243-75
At-the-Rim FG17-2815-22
Midrange FG8-1716-23
2-Point FG25-4531-45
3-Point FG13-3712-30
Free Throws18-2415-19
Fast Break Pts713
2nd Chance Pts107
Points in Paint4242
Pts off Turnovers2324
Bench Points3436
Biggest Lead1912

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
#23 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 32
35.5
5
31%
5
1
0
0
2
3
1
4
0-0
-
1-2
50%
1-6
17%
#24 · C · 6'10" 254 · 31
35.5
15
68%
7
4
2
0
2
6
4
3
1-3
33%
7-10
70%
0-0
-
#9 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 27
33.6
27
64%
4
6
0
1
2
4
1
3
5-5
100%
8-13
62%
2-6
33%
#8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 33
27.5
24
92%
2
2
0
0
2
3
0
2
3-4
75%
0-1
0%
7-11
64%
#55 · PG · 6'5" 190 · 29
21.5
2
25%
3
2
2
0
0
0
1
2
0-0
-
1-4
25%
0-0
-
#25 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 32
26.6
21
70%
3
4
2
0
3
1
0
3
8-9
89%
5-7
71%
1-4
25%
#20 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 24
20.6
12
55%
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0-1
0%
3-5
60%
2-6
33%
#19 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 24
13.3
0
0%
4
4
2
0
1
2
2
2
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-2
0%
#28 · PF · 6'8" 250 · 20
12.1
0
0%
2
1
0
1
0
2
1
1
0-0
-
0-1
0%
0-0
-
#45 · SF · 6'9" 209 · 20
10.3
1
17%
1
0
0
0
2
1
0
1
1-2
50%
0-1
0%
0-1
0%
#41 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 22
3.5
0
0%
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-1
0%
#38 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 22
DNP - Coach's Decision
#13 · C · 6'11" 260 · 25
DNP - Coach's Decision
#17 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 29
DNP - Coach's Decision
#91 · SF · 6'8" 190 · 21
DNP - Coach's Decision
#5 · PG · 6'3" 205 · 23
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Left Ankle; Sprain
#7 · PG · 6'5" 195 · 19
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Hip; Strain
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
107
57%
32
24
8
3
16
23
10
22
18-24
75%
25-45
56%
13-37
35%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.