Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Nuggets	56%	113	109	114.7	95	92.9
	16	Heat	44%	111	82	85.4	96	98.3

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+16

-13

MIA

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.11 55.6%

MIA

0.92 46.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 24	35.8	14	54%	5	4	1	0	1	0	1	4	4-4	100%	2-7	29%	2-4	50%
Gary Harris #14 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 26	35.1	7	50%	2	7	2	0	1	1	1	1	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 26	34.1	21	75%	11	3	0	1	1	2	2	9	2-2	100%	8-9	89%	1-5	20%
Paul Millsap #4 · PF · 6'8" 246 · 36	24.4	11	61%	7	3	1	0	2	2	3	4	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Will Barton #5 · SF · 6'6" 190 · 30	21.3	10	63%	3	1	0	1	3	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-5	40%

Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 23	25.0	17	71%	5	1	4	0	3	3	0	5	0-0	-	4-5	80%	3-7	43%
JaMychal Green #0 · PF · 6'9" 227 · 31	19.7	15	63%	10	1	1	0	0	1	3	7	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	3-7	43%
Monté Morris #11 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 26	16.7	4	22%	2	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Facundo Campazzo #7 · PG · 5'11" 195 · 30	10.1	0	0%	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
R.J. Hampton #13 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 20	7.7	0	0%	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Markus Howard #00 · PG · 5'11" 175 · 22	2.9	6	150%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
Bol Bol #10 · C · 7'2" 208 · 21	2.5	0	0%	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Vlatko Čančar #31 · SF · 6'9" 215 · 24	2.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 20	2.5	4	67%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Isaiah Hartenstein #25 · C · 7'0" 250 · 23	DNP - Coach's Decision
PJ Dozier #35 · PG · 6'6" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Greg Whittington #3 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Arthroscopy
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	56%	49	29	14	4	13	12	12	37	11-11	100%	28-49	57%	14-43	33%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 24	35.8	14	54%	5	4	1	0	1	0	1	4	4-4	100%	2-7	29%	2-4	50%
Gary Harris #14 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 26	35.1	7	50%	2	7	2	0	1	1	1	1	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 26	34.1	21	75%	11	3	0	1	1	2	2	9	2-2	100%	8-9	89%	1-5	20%
Paul Millsap #4 · PF · 6'8" 246 · 36	24.4	11	61%	7	3	1	0	2	2	3	4	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-4	25%
Will Barton #5 · SF · 6'6" 190 · 30	21.3	10	63%	3	1	0	1	3	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-5	40%

Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 23	25.0	17	71%	5	1	4	0	3	3	0	5	0-0	-	4-5	80%	3-7	43%
JaMychal Green #0 · PF · 6'9" 227 · 31	19.7	15	63%	10	1	1	0	0	1	3	7	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	3-7	43%
Monté Morris #11 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 26	16.7	4	22%	2	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Facundo Campazzo #7 · PG · 5'11" 195 · 30	10.1	0	0%	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
R.J. Hampton #13 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 20	7.7	0	0%	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Markus Howard #00 · PG · 5'11" 175 · 22	2.9	6	150%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
Bol Bol #10 · C · 7'2" 208 · 21	2.5	0	0%	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Vlatko Čančar #31 · SF · 6'9" 215 · 24	2.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 20	2.5	4	67%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Isaiah Hartenstein #25 · C · 7'0" 250 · 23	DNP - Coach's Decision
PJ Dozier #35 · PG · 6'6" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Greg Whittington #3 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Arthroscopy
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	56%	49	29	14	4	13	12	12	37	11-11	100%	28-49	57%	14-43	33%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kendrick Nunn #25 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 25	38.9	17	53%	2	1	3	0	2	0	0	2	0-0	-	4-7	57%	3-9	33%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 27	36.5	8	36%	5	3	0	0	3	3	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-10	20%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 24	33.5	15	50%	7	6	0	0	3	0	2	5	3-4	75%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
KZ Okpala #4 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 22	26.0	1	13%	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	5	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Kelly Olynyk #9 · PF · 7'0" 240 · 30	21.9	9	50%	6	0	0	0	0	1	3	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-7	43%

Precious Achiuwa #5 · SF · 6'8" 243 · 21	20.3	10	56%	6	3	2	3	1	2	1	5	2-2	100%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Avery Bradley #11 · SG · 6'2" 180 · 30	17.6	8	67%	1	2	0	0	4	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Max Strus #31 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	16.6	5	42%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-5	20%
Andre Iguodala #28 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 37	16.2	6	60%	5	5	0	0	0	1	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Gabe Vincent #2 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 25	12.5	3	38%	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Udonis Haslem #40 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 41	DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Spasms
Goran Dragic #7 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 35	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Strain
Maurice Harkless #8 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Thigh; Contusion
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 31	INACTIVE
Chris Silva #30 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip Flexor; Strain
Meyers Leonard #0 · C · 7'1" 255 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	82	46%	38	24	6	3	16	13	6	32	9-11	82%	17-35	49%	13-45	29%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.11 55.6%

MIA

0.92 46.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

69%

MIA

57%

Midrange

DEN

43%

MIA

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

21.0

33%

49%

MIA

19.5

29%

43%

Free Throws

DEN

100%

MIA

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	21	75%	10.5 / 14
M. Porter	17	71%	8.5 / 12
J. Green	15	63%	7.5 / 12
J. Murray	14	54%	7.0 / 13
P. Millsap	11	61%	5.5 / 9
W. Barton	10	63%	5.0 / 8
G. Harris	7	50%	3.5 / 7
M. Howard	6	150%	3.0 / 2
M. Morris	4	22%	2.0 / 9
Z. Nnaji	4	67%	2.0 / 3
F. Campazzo	0	-	0.0 / 4
R. Hampton	0	-	0.0 / 2
V. Cancar	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Nunn	17	53%	8.5 / 16
B. Adebayo	15	50%	7.5 / 15
P. Achiuwa	10	56%	5.0 / 9
K. Olynyk	9	50%	4.5 / 9
D. Robinson	8	36%	4.0 / 11
A. Bradley	8	67%	4.0 / 6
A. Iguodala	6	60%	3.0 / 5
M. Strus	5	42%	2.5 / 6
G. Vincent	3	38%	1.5 / 4
K. Okpala	1	13%	0.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 116.8 19 111.1	DEN 114.7 +29.3 MIA 85.4
Pace	28 97.4 29 96.7	DEN 92.9 MIA 98.3 +5.4
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.1 12 14.7	DEN 15.5 MIA 14.7 −0.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	6 55.7% 11 54.6%	DEN 53.3% +7.7% MIA 45.6%
TO %	13 13.0% 21 13.7%	DEN 12.6% −4.1% MIA 16.7%
ORB %	2 24.8% 29 19.4%	DEN 27.3% +13.3% MIA 14.0%
FTrt	28 21.9 11 25.2	DEN 12.0 MIA 13.8 +1.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 62.1% 2 67.1%	DEN 69.0% MIA 80.0% +11.0%
STL %	6 8.2% 7 8.2%	DEN 14.7% +8.4% MIA 6.3%
BLK %	14 9.0% 22 8.5%	DEN 11.4% +5.3% MIA 6.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 57.5% 13 56.5%	DEN 55.6% +9.5% MIA 46.1%
Rim FG%	6 63.9% 2 64.8%	DEN 69.2% +12.7% MIA 56.5%
Mid FG%	5 44.9% 16 41.8%	DEN 43.5% +10.2% MIA 33.3%
3P %	8 37.7% 19 35.8%	DEN 32.6% +3.7% MIA 28.9%
FT %	7 80.3% 12 79.0%	DEN 100.0% +18.2% MIA 81.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	18 33.5% 20 33.3%	DEN 28.3% MIA 28.7% +0.5%
Mid Att. %	22 28.2% 11 23.5%	DEN 25.0% MIA 15.0% −10.0%
3P Att. %	18 38.3% 7 43.2%	DEN 46.7% MIA 56.3% +9.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	MIA
Possessions	95	96
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	109	82
Rebounds	49	38
Assists	29	24
Steals	14	6
Blocks	4	3
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	12	13
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	6 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (6)	32 (2)
Field Goals	42-92	30-80
At-the-Rim FG	18-26	13-23
Midrange FG	10-23	4-12
2-Point FG	28-49	17-35
3-Point FG	14-43	13-45
Free Throws	11-11	9-11
Fast Break Pts	13	9
2nd Chance Pts	14	4
Points in Paint	50	28
Pts off Turnovers	29	10
Bench Points	46	32
Biggest Lead	27	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg