Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Nuggets	53%	111	89	89.9	99	97.7
	4	Timberwolves	47%	109	110	112.2	98	99.3

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+18

-15

102

MIN

+12

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

0.87 43.6%

MIN

1.13 56.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	32.2	14	41%	6	6	1	1	3	3	2	4	3-5	60%	4-12	33%	1-4	25%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	30.0	25	52%	10	3	0	0	5	0	2	8	2-2	100%	10-17	59%	1-6	17%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	26.4	6	75%	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	1-1	100%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	25.1	5	23%	5	1	1	1	0	0	2	3	1-1	100%	2-6	33%	0-5	0%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	18.4	4	67%	2	2	0	1	2	4	1	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	20.2	8	50%	9	2	0	1	1	3	3	6	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	18.6	2	25%	0	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.7	9	50%	5	0	0	2	0	3	2	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	15.6	5	36%	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	1-6	17%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	15.5	4	67%	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	5.7	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	5.2	0	0%	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	5.2	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 23	4.2	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #34 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	89	44%	43	23	6	10	15	22	12	31	7-10	70%	32-63	51%	6-33	18%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	32.2	14	41%	6	6	1	1	3	3	2	4	3-5	60%	4-12	33%	1-4	25%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	30.0	25	52%	10	3	0	0	5	0	2	8	2-2	100%	10-17	59%	1-6	17%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	26.4	6	75%	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	1-1	100%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	25.1	5	23%	5	1	1	1	0	0	2	3	1-1	100%	2-6	33%	0-5	0%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	18.4	4	67%	2	2	0	1	2	4	1	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	20.2	8	50%	9	2	0	1	1	3	3	6	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	18.6	2	25%	0	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.7	9	50%	5	0	0	2	0	3	2	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	15.6	5	36%	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	1-6	17%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	15.5	4	67%	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	5.7	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	5.2	0	0%	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	5.2	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 23	4.2	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #34 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	89	44%	43	23	6	10	15	22	12	31	7-10	70%	32-63	51%	6-33	18%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

4 Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 31	32.4	4	22%	12	1	1	2	1	3	2	10	4-4	100%	0-7	0%	0-0	-
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 22	31.8	24	60%	2	1	2	0	4	1	0	2	7-8	88%	7-12	58%	1-4	25%
Karl-Anthony Towns #32 · PF · 7'0" 248 · 28	30.8	21	50%	8	4	2	0	1	2	2	6	6-6	100%	6-15	40%	1-4	25%
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 36	27.3	17	94%	3	6	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	4-5	80%	3-4	75%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 23	21.3	6	60%	9	2	0	2	4	5	3	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%

Kyle Anderson #1 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 30	25.3	9	75%	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-1	100%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #9 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	20.7	5	42%	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Naz Reid #11 · C · 6'9" 264 · 24	19.3	16	80%	5	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	3-3	100%	5-6	83%	1-3	33%
Shake Milton #18 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 27	18.0	2	25%	1	1	2	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Troy Brown Jr. #23 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	5.2	4	67%	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	4-4	100%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #6 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 28	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Josh Minott #8 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 21	3.6	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Wendell Moore Jr. #7 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Leonard Miller #33 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Daishen Nix #15 · PG · 6'3" 226 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Luka Garza #55 · PF · 6'10" 243 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jaylen Clark #0 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Rupture Rehab
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	57%	47	20	9	5	13	15	8	39	26-27	96%	30-62	48%	8-21	38%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIN
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIN

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

SHOOTING

Live advanced shooting dashboard requires a premium subscription for some games.

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

0.87 43.6%

MIN

1.13 56.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

41%

MIN

45%

Midrange

DEN

59%

MIN

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

9.0

18%

27%

MIN

12.0

38%

57%

Free Throws

DEN

70%

MIN

96%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	25	52%	12.5 / 24
J. Murray	14	41%	7.0 / 17
Z. Nnaji	9	50%	4.5 / 9
C. Braun	8	50%	4.0 / 8
K. Caldwell-Pope	6	75%	3.0 / 4
M. Porter	5	23%	2.5 / 11
J. Strawther	5	36%	2.5 / 7
A. Gordon	4	67%	2.0 / 3
P. Watson	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Holiday	3	75%	1.5 / 2
R. Jackson	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. Pickett	2	50%	1.0 / 2
H. Tyson	2	50%	1.0 / 2
B. Key	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Timberwolves

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Edwards	24	60%	12.0 / 20
K. Towns	21	50%	10.5 / 21
M. Conley	17	94%	8.5 / 9
N. Reid	16	80%	8.0 / 10
K. Anderson	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. McDaniels	6	60%	3.0 / 5
N. Alexander-Walker	5	42%	2.5 / 6
R. Gobert	4	22%	2.0 / 9
T. Brown Jr.	4	67%	2.0 / 3
S. Milton	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. Minott	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. McLaughlin	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 17 114.7	DEN 89.9 MIN 112.2 +22.3
Pace	26 97.4 22 97.9	DEN 97.7 MIN 99.3 +1.6
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 3 15.0	DEN 14.7 MIN 14.5 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 10 55.9%	DEN 42.7% MIN 50.6% +7.9%
TO %	7 12.1% 22 13.6%	DEN 13.7% MIN 12.9% −0.8%
ORB %	6 25.5% 22 23.1%	DEN 23.5% +3.0% MIN 20.5%
FTrt	24 22.4 5 27.0	DEN 10.4 MIN 32.5 +22.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 12 64.6%	DEN 60.5% +7.9% MIN 52.6%
STL %	20 7.3% 6 8.0%	DEN 6.1% MIN 9.2% +3.1%
BLK %	25 8.7% 4 11.0%	DEN 16.1% +8.2% MIN 7.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 10 57.7%	DEN 43.6% MIN 56.7% +13.1%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 15 64.3%	DEN 41.4% MIN 45.5% +4.1%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 16 42.6%	DEN 58.8% +7.1% MIN 51.7%
3P %	10 37.4% 3 38.7%	DEN 18.2% MIN 38.1% +19.9%
FT %	25 76.2% 18 77.7%	DEN 70.0% MIN 96.3% +26.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 14 34.1%	DEN 30.2% MIN 39.8% +9.6%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 16 27.5%	DEN 35.4% MIN 34.9% −0.5%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 17 38.4%	DEN 34.4% +9.1% MIN 25.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	MIN
Possessions	99	98
Possession Minutes	24.3	23.7
Points	89	110
Rebounds	43	47
Assists	23	20
Steals	6	9
Blocks	10	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	13 (1)
Fouls	22	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (6)	8 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (3)	39 (2)
Field Goals	38-96	38-83
At-the-Rim FG	12-29	15-33
Midrange FG	20-34	15-29
2-Point FG	32-63	30-62
3-Point FG	6-33	8-21
Free Throws	7-10	26-27
Fast Break Pts	9	16
2nd Chance Pts	11	13
Points in Paint	56	50
Pts off Turnovers	12	22
Bench Points	35	38
Biggest Lead	0	46

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg