Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

Final	W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	13	Heat	59%	115	118	118.0	100	102.7
	29	Spurs	41%	112	113	114.1	99	96.5

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	38.6	26	68%	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	4	6-6	100%	4-9	44%	4-7	57%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	36.5	19	53%	6	4	0	1	2	1	2	4	8-9	89%	4-11	36%	1-3	33%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	34.3	24	55%	11	6	3	0	0	0	4	7	4-5	80%	10-20	50%	0-0	-
Haywood Highsmith #24 · PF · 6'5" 220 · 27	26.1	0	0%	4	1	0	0	0	3	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Josh Richardson #0 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 30	26.1	12	75%	3	4	1	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	32.3	11	50%	6	3	3	1	1	1	1	5	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	1-2	50%
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	26.8	12	60%	4	3	0	0	1	2	2	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	14.2	12	60%	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	5.0	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	INACTIVE
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinosis
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	54%	41	26	7	3	4	12	11	30	28-30	93%	27-58	47%	12-31	39%

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13 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	38.6	26	68%	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	4	6-6	100%	4-9	44%	4-7	57%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	36.5	19	53%	6	4	0	1	2	1	2	4	8-9	89%	4-11	36%	1-3	33%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	34.3	24	55%	11	6	3	0	0	0	4	7	4-5	80%	10-20	50%	0-0	-
Haywood Highsmith #24 · PF · 6'5" 220 · 27	26.1	0	0%	4	1	0	0	0	3	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Josh Richardson #0 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 30	26.1	12	75%	3	4	1	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	32.3	11	50%	6	3	3	1	1	1	1	5	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	1-2	50%
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	26.8	12	60%	4	3	0	0	1	2	2	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	14.2	12	60%	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	5.0	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	INACTIVE
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinosis
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	54%	41	26	7	3	4	12	11	30	28-30	93%	27-58	47%	12-31	39%

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29 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	36.9	20	56%	12	6	1	1	1	2	0	12	1-1	100%	5-8	63%	3-10	30%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · PF · 7'4" 235 · 20	34.4	18	41%	11	7	1	1	7	3	1	10	0-0	-	6-13	46%	2-9	22%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 20	33.9	16	80%	5	3	0	2	3	4	1	4	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%
Zach Collins #23 · C · 6'9" 240 · 26	33.2	18	53%	5	2	0	1	3	4	2	3	5-6	83%	5-10	50%	1-4	25%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 23	33.2	14	58%	7	4	0	0	1	0	2	5	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-9	44%

Doug McDermott #17 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 32	21.2	8	100%	3	5	0	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	20.5	13	93%	1	7	0	0	1	2	0	1	1-1	100%	0-2	0%	4-5	80%
Cedi Osman #16 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 29	20.2	3	50%	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 23	6.3	3	50%	5	1	1	0	1	2	3	2	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Devonte' Graham #4 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Dominick Barlow #26 · SF · 6'9" 224 · 20	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Charles Bediako #27 · C · 6'11" 225 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Sir'Jabari Rice #11 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tightness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	58%	50	35	3	6	17	21	11	39	10-12	83%	23-47	49%	19-44	43%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.08 54.1%

SAS

1.16 58.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

18

34

53%

SAS

15

24

63%

Midrange

MIA

9

24

38%

SAS

8

23

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

12

18.0

31

39%

58%

SAS

19

28.5

44

43%

65%

Free Throws

MIA

28

30

93%

SAS

10

12

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

%

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Robinson	26	68%	13.0 / 19
B. Adebayo	24	55%	12.0 / 22
J. Butler	19	53%	9.5 / 18
J. Richardson	12	75%	6.0 / 8
D. Smith	12	60%	6.0 / 10
K. Love	12	60%	6.0 / 10
J. Jaquez	11	50%	5.5 / 11
T. Bryant	2	100%	1.0 / 1
H. Highsmith	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

|

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	20	56%	10.0 / 18
V. Wembanyama	18	41%	9.0 / 22
Z. Collins	18	53%	9.0 / 17
J. Sochan	16	80%	8.0 / 10
D. Vassell	14	58%	7.0 / 12
M. Branham	13	93%	6.5 / 7
D. McDermott	8	100%	4.0 / 4
C. Osman	3	50%	1.5 / 3
C. Bassey	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.3 26 109.4	MIA 118.0 +3.9 SAS 114.1
Pace	29 97.0 3 101.7	MIA 102.7 +6.2 SAS 96.5
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 25 14.1	MIA 14.0 −0.9 SAS 14.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.8% 23 53.2%	MIA 50.6% SAS 56.6% +6.0%
TO %	9 12.2% 26 14.3%	MIA 6.4% −8.6% SAS 15.0%
ORB %	26 21.8% 23 22.9%	MIA 22.0% SAS 26.8% +4.8%
FTrt	8 25.7 28 22.0	MIA 33.7 +20.5 SAS 13.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 64.8% 1 71.2%	MIA 66.7% SAS 83.3% +16.6%
STL %	11 7.7% 23 6.9%	MIA 7.0% +4.0% SAS 3.0%
BLK %	30 7.7% 10 9.7%	MIA 6.4% SAS 10.3% +3.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.62 and 2.62.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	17 56.2% 25 55.1%	MIA 54.1% SAS 58.2% +4.1%
Rim FG%	23 61.6% 16 64.1%	MIA 52.9% SAS 62.5% +9.6%
Mid FG%	13 44.3% 24 40.5%	MIA 37.5% +2.7% SAS 34.8%
3P %	12 37.0% 28 34.7%	MIA 38.7% SAS 43.2% +4.5%
FT %	5 81.8% 14 78.2%	MIA 93.3% +10.0% SAS 83.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 29.5% 13 34.2%	MIA 38.2% +11.8% SAS 26.4%
Mid Att. %	28 31.1% 9 25.7%	MIA 27.0% SAS 25.3% −1.7%
3P Att. %	14 39.4% 12 40.1%	MIA 34.8% SAS 48.4% +13.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	SAS
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	23.4	24.6
Points	118	113
Rebounds	41	50
Assists	26	35
Steals	7	3
Blocks	3	6
Turnovers (Team)	4 (3)	17 (0)
Fouls	12	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (2)	11 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (5)	39 (0)
Field Goals	39-89	42-91
At-the-Rim FG	18-34	15-24
Midrange FG	9-24	8-23
2-Point FG	27-58	23-47
3-Point FG	12-31	19-44
Free Throws	28-30	10-12
Fast Break Pts	9	17
2nd Chance Pts	13	18
Points in Paint	42	38
Pts off Turnovers	33	15
Bench Points	37	27
Biggest Lead	6	19

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg