Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, December 11, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Nuggets	53%	119	129	130.3	99	102.5
	14	Hawks	47%	118	122	123.2	99	95.6

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+17

-16

100

ATL

+17

-10

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.29 64.5%

ATL

1.15 57.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	36.0	25	78%	8	9	3	2	1	3	2	6	6-7	86%	8-12	67%	1-1	100%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	29.8	8	50%	3	2	0	1	2	2	0	3	6-8	75%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	29.0	29	97%	9	4	1	2	6	1	1	8	1-1	100%	8-10	80%	4-5	80%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	28.6	18	75%	12	1	0	0	2	2	7	5	4-5	80%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	26.4	3	13%	7	3	0	0	1	3	2	5	1-2	50%	1-7	14%	0-4	0%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	28.3	22	69%	1	2	5	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	6-11	55%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	20.2	3	50%	2	0	0	1	0	2	1	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	19.1	12	60%	1	6	0	0	1	0	0	1	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	1-5	20%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	12.0	3	75%	4	1	0	2	1	3	1	3	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	10.7	6	75%	2	1	0	0	0	2	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	65%	49	29	9	2	16	19	14	35	23-29	79%	35-59	59%	12-29	41%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

3 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	36.0	25	78%	8	9	3	2	1	3	2	6	6-7	86%	8-12	67%	1-1	100%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	29.8	8	50%	3	2	0	1	2	2	0	3	6-8	75%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	29.0	29	97%	9	4	1	2	6	1	1	8	1-1	100%	8-10	80%	4-5	80%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	28.6	18	75%	12	1	0	0	2	2	7	5	4-5	80%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	26.4	3	13%	7	3	0	0	1	3	2	5	1-2	50%	1-7	14%	0-4	0%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	28.3	22	69%	1	2	5	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	6-11	55%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	20.2	3	50%	2	0	0	1	0	2	1	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	19.1	12	60%	1	6	0	0	1	0	0	1	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	1-5	20%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	12.0	3	75%	4	1	0	2	1	3	1	3	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	10.7	6	75%	2	1	0	0	0	2	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	65%	49	29	9	2	16	19	14	35	23-29	79%	35-59	59%	12-29	41%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

14 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Saddiq Bey #41 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	39.9	16	62%	4	2	1	1	0	2	1	3	3-4	75%	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Dejounte Murray #5 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 27	38.2	21	46%	6	3	1	0	2	2	4	2	2-2	100%	5-14	36%	3-8	38%
Clint Capela #15 · C · 6'10" 256 · 30	27.8	14	58%	8	2	1	0	0	5	4	4	2-2	100%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 25	26.4	19	63%	1	9	1	0	5	2	0	1	7-7	100%	3-7	43%	2-5	40%
Garrison Mathews #25 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 27	16.7	3	30%	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-5	20%

Bogdan Bogdanović #13 · SG · 6'5" 225 · 31	35.6	40	80%	3	3	2	0	1	4	1	2	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	10-17	59%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 23	28.4	7	70%	6	3	0	1	0	3	2	4	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Wesley Matthews #32 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 37	18.1	2	20%	5	1	2	0	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
AJ Griffin #14 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	9.0	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Seth Lundy #3 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Patty Mills #8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trent Forrest #2 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bruno Fernando #24 · C · 6'10" 233 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Miles Norris #0 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kobe Bufkin #4 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Fracture
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Low Back; Stress Fracture
De'Andre Hunter #12 · SF · 6'7" 221 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quad Tendon; Soreness
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Distal Radius; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	57%	35	25	9	8	10	21	13	22	17-18	94%	27-52	52%	17-44	39%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	ATL
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	ATL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.29 64.5%

ATL

1.15 57.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

74%

ATL

55%

Midrange

DEN

38%

ATL

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

41%

62%

ATL

25.5

39%

58%

Free Throws

DEN

79%

ATL

94%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	29	97%	14.5 / 15
N. Jokić	25	78%	12.5 / 16
J. Strawther	22	69%	11.0 / 16
A. Gordon	18	75%	9.0 / 12
R. Jackson	12	60%	6.0 / 10
K. Caldwell-Pope	8	50%	4.0 / 8
C. Braun	6	75%	3.0 / 4
M. Porter	3	13%	1.5 / 12
P. Watson	3	50%	1.5 / 3
Z. Nnaji	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Bogdanović	40	80%	20.0 / 25
D. Murray	21	46%	10.5 / 23
T. Young	19	63%	9.5 / 15
S. Bey	16	62%	8.0 / 13
C. Capela	14	58%	7.0 / 12
O. Okongwu	7	70%	3.5 / 5
G. Mathews	3	30%	1.5 / 5
W. Matthews	2	20%	1.0 / 5
A. Griffin	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 12 116.4	DEN 130.3 +7.1 ATL 123.2
Pace	26 97.4 6 100.9	DEN 102.5 +6.9 ATL 95.6
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 21 14.2	DEN 14.0 −1.0 ATL 15.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 17 53.9%	DEN 60.2% +5.5% ATL 54.7%
TO %	7 12.1% 13 12.5%	DEN 13.7% ATL 8.8% −4.9%
ORB %	6 25.5% 5 27.1%	DEN 38.9% +11.8% ATL 27.1%
FTrt	24 22.4 12 25.1	DEN 33.0 +14.2 ATL 18.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 19 61.8%	DEN 61.7% +4.9% ATL 56.8%
STL %	20 7.3% 18 7.4%	DEN 9.1% ATL 9.1%
BLK %	25 8.7% 21 9.0%	DEN 3.8% ATL 13.6% +9.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 16 56.3%	DEN 64.5% +7.0% ATL 57.5%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 28 60.3%	DEN 74.3% +19.8% ATL 54.5%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 6 45.2%	DEN 37.5% ATL 47.4% +9.9%
3P %	10 37.4% 17 36.4%	DEN 41.4% +2.8% ATL 38.6%
FT %	25 76.2% 8 79.7%	DEN 79.3% ATL 94.4% +15.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 18 32.8%	DEN 39.8% +5.4% ATL 34.4%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 11 26.5%	DEN 27.3% ATL 19.8% −7.5%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 9 40.8%	DEN 33.0% ATL 45.8% +12.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	ATL
Possessions	99	99
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	129	122
Rebounds	49	35
Assists	29	25
Steals	9	9
Blocks	2	8
Turnovers (Team)	16 (0)	10 (0)
Fouls	19	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (3)	13 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (1)	22 (2)
Field Goals	47-88	44-96
At-the-Rim FG	26-35	18-33
Midrange FG	9-24	9-19
2-Point FG	35-59	27-52
3-Point FG	12-29	17-44
Free Throws	23-29	17-18
Fast Break Pts	11	14
2nd Chance Pts	19	20
Points in Paint	64	46
Pts off Turnovers	14	25
Bench Points	46	49
Biggest Lead	20	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg