Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	28	Spurs	20%	114	119	108.2	110	118.0
	8	Bucks	80%	126	132	120.0	110	103.0

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+13

-16

107

MIL

104

+12

-6

116

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.11 55.6%

MIL

1.14 56.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

28 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keldon Johnson #3 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 24	35.2	28	74%	12	1	0	0	5	2	2	10	10-12	83%	9-12	75%	0-1	0%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 23	33.1	17	47%	3	2	0	0	2	0	0	3	1-1	100%	5-12	42%	2-6	33%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 21	32.9	9	38%	11	8	1	0	0	3	3	8	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	0-2	0%
Zach Collins #23 · C · 6'9" 240 · 26	28.9	22	69%	8	2	1	2	4	3	2	6	0-0	-	5-9	56%	4-7	57%
Malaki Branham #22 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 21	26.7	12	55%	2	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-4	50%

Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 24	23.8	14	64%	1	5	1	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Cedi Osman #16 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 29	19.0	10	71%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	15.2	3	30%	8	3	1	2	2	1	1	7	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Doug McDermott #17 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 32	12.6	0	0%	2	2	0	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Dominick Barlow #26 · SF · 6'9" 224 · 21	10.5	2	33%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 22	2.1	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Devonte' Graham #4 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Charles Bediako #27 · C · 6'11" 225 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #28 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · PF · 7'4" 235 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Soreness
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Acl; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	56%	52	27	4	4	16	17	8	44	18-21	86%	37-66	56%	9-30	30%

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28 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keldon Johnson #3 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 24	35.2	28	74%	12	1	0	0	5	2	2	10	10-12	83%	9-12	75%	0-1	0%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 23	33.1	17	47%	3	2	0	0	2	0	0	3	1-1	100%	5-12	42%	2-6	33%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 21	32.9	9	38%	11	8	1	0	0	3	3	8	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	0-2	0%
Zach Collins #23 · C · 6'9" 240 · 26	28.9	22	69%	8	2	1	2	4	3	2	6	0-0	-	5-9	56%	4-7	57%
Malaki Branham #22 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 21	26.7	12	55%	2	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-4	50%

Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 24	23.8	14	64%	1	5	1	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Cedi Osman #16 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 29	19.0	10	71%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	15.2	3	30%	8	3	1	2	2	1	1	7	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Doug McDermott #17 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 32	12.6	0	0%	2	2	0	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Dominick Barlow #26 · SF · 6'9" 224 · 21	10.5	2	33%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 22	2.1	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Devonte' Graham #4 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Charles Bediako #27 · C · 6'11" 225 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #28 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · PF · 7'4" 235 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Soreness
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Acl; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	56%	52	27	4	4	16	17	8	44	18-21	86%	37-66	56%	9-30	30%

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8 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 33	34.8	40	87%	3	4	3	0	1	0	0	3	5-5	100%	7-10	70%	7-12	58%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 29	33.6	11	37%	14	16	2	1	3	1	2	12	3-6	50%	4-10	40%	0-2	0%
Brook Lopez #11 · C · 7'1" 282 · 36	31.8	14	47%	5	1	0	6	0	3	5	0	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	0-5	0%
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 32	28.4	17	57%	3	4	1	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	4-9	44%	3-6	50%
Malik Beasley #5 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 27	27.5	7	50%	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-5	20%

Bobby Portis Jr. #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 29	26.3	23	72%	10	2	2	0	0	3	1	9	0-0	-	7-10	70%	3-6	50%
Pat Connaughton #24 · SG · 6'5" 209 · 31	18.2	3	19%	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-6	17%
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 22	14.8	7	70%	3	2	1	0	1	2	2	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
Cameron Payne #15 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 29	12.5	7	50%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
MarJon Beauchamp #3 · SF · 6'7" 199 · 23	6.3	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	2.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Robin Lopez #42 · C · 7'0" 277 · 36	2.1	3	150%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 31	1.4	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Chris Livingston #7 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Marques Bolden #12 · C · 6'10" 249 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
TyTy Washington Jr. #23 · PG · 6'3" 195 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Lindell Wigginton #28 · PG · 6'1" 189 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jae Crowder #99 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	132	57%	47	34	11	7	6	15	11	36	14-18	78%	32-57	56%	18-49	37%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.11 55.6%

MIL

1.14 56.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

74%

MIL

61%

Midrange

SAS

35%

MIL

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

13.5

30%

45%

MIL

27.0

37%

55%

Free Throws

SAS

86%

MIL

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	28	74%	14.0 / 19
Z. Collins	22	69%	11.0 / 16
D. Vassell	17	47%	8.5 / 18
T. Jones	14	64%	7.0 / 11
M. Branham	12	55%	6.0 / 11
C. Osman	10	71%	5.0 / 7
J. Sochan	9	38%	4.5 / 12
S. Mamukelashvili	3	30%	1.5 / 5
D. Barlow	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Champagnie	2	100%	1.0 / 1
D. McDermott	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Lillard	40	87%	20.0 / 23
B. Portis	23	72%	11.5 / 16
K. Middleton	17	57%	8.5 / 15
B. Lopez	14	47%	7.0 / 15
G. Antetokounmpo	11	37%	5.5 / 15
M. Beasley	7	50%	3.5 / 7
A. Jackson	7	70%	3.5 / 5
C. Payne	7	50%	3.5 / 7
P. Connaughton	3	19%	1.5 / 8
R. Lopez	3	150%	1.5 / 1
A. Green	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	26 109.4 6 117.6	SAS 108.2 MIL 120.0 +11.8
Pace	3 101.7 8 100.6	SAS 118.0 +15.0 MIL 103.0
Avg. Poss. Time	25 14.1 19 14.4	SAS 12.2 −1.8 MIL 14.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.2% 4 56.8%	SAS 52.6% MIL 55.7% +3.1%
TO %	26 14.3% 10 12.2%	SAS 13.2% MIL 5.8% −7.4%
ORB %	23 22.9% 25 21.8%	SAS 18.2% MIL 20.0% +1.8%
FTrt	28 22.0 4 27.0	SAS 21.9 +4.9 MIL 17.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	1 71.2% 20 61.5%	SAS 58.7% MIL 68.0% +9.3%
STL %	23 6.9% 28 6.7%	SAS 3.6% MIL 10.0% +6.4%
BLK %	10 9.7% 28 8.5%	SAS 7.0% MIL 10.6% +3.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.62 and 2.62.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	25 55.1% 6 58.8%	SAS 55.6% MIL 56.9% +1.3%
Rim FG%	16 64.1% 4 67.9%	SAS 74.3% +13.0% MIL 61.3%
Mid FG%	24 40.5% 11 44.5%	SAS 35.5% MIL 50.0% +14.5%
3P %	28 34.7% 11 37.3%	SAS 30.0% MIL 36.7% +6.7%
FT %	14 78.2% 19 77.4%	SAS 85.7% +7.9% MIL 77.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 34.2% 24 31.5%	SAS 36.5% +7.2% MIL 29.2%
Mid Att. %	9 25.7% 7 25.4%	SAS 32.3% MIL 24.5% −7.8%
3P Att. %	12 40.1% 4 43.0%	SAS 31.3% MIL 46.2% +15.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MIL
Possessions	110	110
Possession Minutes	22.4	25.6
Points	119	132
Rebounds	52	47
Assists	27	34
Steals	4	11
Blocks	4	7
Turnovers (Team)	16 (0)	6 (1)
Fouls	17	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (5)	11 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	44 (3)	36 (3)
Field Goals	46-96	50-106
At-the-Rim FG	26-35	19-31
Midrange FG	11-31	13-26
2-Point FG	37-66	32-57
3-Point FG	9-30	18-49
Free Throws	18-21	14-18
Fast Break Pts	14	22
2nd Chance Pts	10	16
Points in Paint	66	48
Pts off Turnovers	9	18
Bench Points	31	43
Biggest Lead	2	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg