Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Nuggets	57%	113	113	117.7	96	89.0
	18	Raptors	43%	110	104	110.6	94	101.7

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+18

-8

106

TOR

+12

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.07 53.3%

TOR

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	38.1	31	65%	15	6	0	2	2	2	5	10	2-3	67%	10-18	56%	3-5	60%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	32.6	12	46%	6	2	1	0	0	1	1	5	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-7	29%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	32.1	20	45%	5	6	1	2	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	7-15	47%	2-7	29%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	31.8	10	100%	2	3	2	2	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	30.2	12	67%	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	2	0-0	-	6-8	75%	0-1	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	17.8	11	92%	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-1	100%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	16.9	3	38%	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	16.7	7	44%	2	4	0	0	1	1	1	1	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-3	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	13.9	7	58%	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	9.9	0	0%	3	1	1	2	2	1	2	1	0-2	0%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	53%	46	29	9	9	8	13	15	31	3-7	43%	37-65	57%	12-33	36%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	38.1	31	65%	15	6	0	2	2	2	5	10	2-3	67%	10-18	56%	3-5	60%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	32.6	12	46%	6	2	1	0	0	1	1	5	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-7	29%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	32.1	20	45%	5	6	1	2	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	7-15	47%	2-7	29%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	31.8	10	100%	2	3	2	2	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	30.2	12	67%	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	2	0-0	-	6-8	75%	0-1	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	17.8	11	92%	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-1	100%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	16.9	3	38%	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	16.7	7	44%	2	4	0	0	1	1	1	1	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-3	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	13.9	7	58%	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	9.9	0	0%	3	1	1	2	2	1	2	1	0-2	0%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	53%	46	29	9	9	8	13	15	31	3-7	43%	37-65	57%	12-33	36%

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18 Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
OG Anunoby #3 · SG · 6'7" 240 · 26	40.0	9	50%	1	3	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-4	25%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 30	35.6	18	50%	5	1	0	0	1	2	1	4	3-5	60%	6-11	55%	1-5	20%
Scottie Barnes #4 · SF · 6'8" 237 · 22	33.1	30	63%	10	5	0	1	2	0	1	9	3-4	75%	12-17	71%	1-5	20%
Dennis Schröder #17 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 30	30.8	7	44%	2	7	1	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 28	19.4	4	40%	5	3	0	2	1	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Gary Trent Jr. #33 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 25	28.6	12	60%	3	4	0	0	1	0	0	3	3-3	100%	3-4	75%	1-5	20%
Precious Achiuwa #5 · PF · 6'8" 243 · 24	24.6	13	65%	5	1	1	1	1	2	4	1	0-1	0%	5-8	63%	1-2	50%
Malachi Flynn #22 · PG · 6'2" 175 · 26	15.6	6	38%	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-5	0%	2-3	67%
Chris Boucher #25 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 31	12.4	5	83%	7	0	0	1	1	1	2	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-1	100%
Gradey Dick #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Otto Porter Jr. #32 · SF · 6'8" 198 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen McDaniels #2 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Thaddeus Young #21 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Garrett Temple #14 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Javon Freeman-Liberty #0 · PG · 6'4" 180 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Markquis Nowell #24 · SG · 5'8" 160 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jontay Porter #11 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Respiratory Issue
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	55%	41	26	3	5	11	12	10	31	9-13	69%	34-63	54%	9-27	33%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	TOR

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.07 53.3%

TOR

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

59%

TOR

70%

Midrange

DEN

56%

TOR

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

36%

55%

TOR

13.5

33%

50%

Free Throws

DEN

43%

TOR

69%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	31	65%	15.5 / 24
J. Murray	20	45%	10.0 / 22
M. Porter	12	46%	6.0 / 13
A. Gordon	12	67%	6.0 / 9
P. Watson	11	92%	5.5 / 6
K. Caldwell-Pope	10	100%	5.0 / 5
R. Jackson	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Strawther	7	58%	3.5 / 6
C. Braun	3	38%	1.5 / 4
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Barnes	30	63%	15.0 / 24
P. Siakam	18	50%	9.0 / 18
P. Achiuwa	13	65%	6.5 / 10
G. Trent	12	60%	6.0 / 10
O. Anunoby	9	50%	4.5 / 9
D. Schröder	7	44%	3.5 / 8
M. Flynn	6	38%	3.0 / 8
C. Boucher	5	83%	2.5 / 3
J. Poeltl	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 24 111.9	DEN 117.7 +7.1 TOR 110.6
Pace	26 97.4 12 99.9	DEN 89.0 TOR 101.7 +12.7
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 28 13.9	DEN 16.2 TOR 14.2 −2.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 21 53.5%	DEN 56.1% +3.3% TOR 52.8%
TO %	7 12.1% 21 13.4%	DEN 8.2% −2.1% TOR 10.3%
ORB %	6 25.5% 17 24.2%	DEN 32.6% +8.2% TOR 24.4%
FTrt	24 22.4 16 24.1	DEN 7.1 TOR 14.4 +7.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 2 67.4%	DEN 59.2% TOR 60.5% +1.3%
STL %	20 7.3% 13 7.7%	DEN 9.4% +6.2% TOR 3.2%
BLK %	25 8.7% 15 9.5%	DEN 14.3% +6.6% TOR 7.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 22 55.5%	DEN 53.3% TOR 54.7% +1.4%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 13 64.8%	DEN 58.6% TOR 70.4% +11.8%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 22 40.8%	DEN 55.6% +13.9% TOR 41.7%
3P %	10 37.4% 27 34.7%	DEN 36.4% +3.1% TOR 33.3%
FT %	25 76.2% 29 75.6%	DEN 42.9% TOR 69.2% +26.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 5 35.6%	DEN 29.6% TOR 30.0% +0.4%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 17 27.5%	DEN 36.7% −3.3% TOR 40.0%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 26 36.9%	DEN 33.7% +3.7% TOR 30.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	TOR
Possessions	96	94
Possession Minutes	25.9	22.2
Points	113	104
Rebounds	46	41
Assists	29	26
Steals	9	3
Blocks	9	5
Turnovers (Team)	8 (1)	11 (0)
Fouls	13	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (3)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (6)	31 (1)
Field Goals	49-98	43-90
At-the-Rim FG	17-29	19-27
Midrange FG	20-36	15-36
2-Point FG	37-65	34-63
3-Point FG	12-33	9-27
Free Throws	3-7	9-13
Fast Break Pts	22	12
2nd Chance Pts	18	10
Points in Paint	62	56
Pts off Turnovers	16	15
Bench Points	28	36
Biggest Lead	21	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg