Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, December 22, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	10	Hawks	52%	118	113	111.9	101	100.6
	18	Heat	48%	117	122	122.0	100	100.4

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+17

-13

105

MIA

+16

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.08 53.8%

MIA

1.22 61.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

10 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 25	39.7	30	65%	3	13	2	0	6	1	0	3	3-3	100%	3-9	33%	7-13	54%
Saddiq Bey #41 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	39.6	16	53%	10	2	2	0	2	2	2	8	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-8	25%
Dejounte Murray #5 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 27	34.5	24	57%	8	6	3	0	2	0	1	7	1-3	33%	7-11	64%	3-9	33%
Clint Capela #15 · C · 6'10" 256 · 30	27.7	8	100%	10	0	0	0	2	5	3	7	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Garrison Mathews #25 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 27	18.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%

Bogdan Bogdanović #13 · SG · 6'5" 225 · 31	35.4	23	46%	2	5	1	0	0	3	1	1	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	6-18	33%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 23	25.6	9	56%	7	1	1	2	0	3	4	3	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	0-1	0%
Patty Mills #8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 35	12.2	3	75%	1	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Wesley Matthews #32 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 37	7.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Trent Forrest #2 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bruno Fernando #24 · C · 6'10" 233 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Miles Norris #0 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 24
Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 24	INACTIVE
Seth Lundy #3 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kobe Bufkin #4 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Fracture
De'Andre Hunter #12 · SF · 6'7" 221 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Low Back; Stress Fracture
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Distal Radius; Fracture
AJ Griffin #14 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	54%	43	29	9	2	13	23	12	31	10-14	71%	23-42	55%	19-54	35%

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10 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 25	39.7	30	65%	3	13	2	0	6	1	0	3	3-3	100%	3-9	33%	7-13	54%
Saddiq Bey #41 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	39.6	16	53%	10	2	2	0	2	2	2	8	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-8	25%
Dejounte Murray #5 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 27	34.5	24	57%	8	6	3	0	2	0	1	7	1-3	33%	7-11	64%	3-9	33%
Clint Capela #15 · C · 6'10" 256 · 30	27.7	8	100%	10	0	0	0	2	5	3	7	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Garrison Mathews #25 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 27	18.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%

Bogdan Bogdanović #13 · SG · 6'5" 225 · 31	35.4	23	46%	2	5	1	0	0	3	1	1	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	6-18	33%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 23	25.6	9	56%	7	1	1	2	0	3	4	3	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	0-1	0%
Patty Mills #8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 35	12.2	3	75%	1	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Wesley Matthews #32 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 37	7.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Trent Forrest #2 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bruno Fernando #24 · C · 6'10" 233 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Miles Norris #0 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 24
Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 24	INACTIVE
Seth Lundy #3 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kobe Bufkin #4 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Fracture
De'Andre Hunter #12 · SF · 6'7" 221 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Low Back; Stress Fracture
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Distal Radius; Fracture
AJ Griffin #14 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	54%	43	29	9	2	13	23	12	31	10-14	71%	23-42	55%	19-54	35%

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18 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	38.1	18	47%	11	6	2	0	6	2	2	9	8-10	80%	5-13	38%	0-1	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	37.3	19	59%	7	1	1	1	2	4	4	3	4-5	80%	6-13	46%	1-1	100%
Caleb Martin #16 · PF · 6'5" 205 · 28	35.1	11	61%	8	2	1	1	0	4	2	6	1-1	100%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	34.1	30	71%	7	2	1	0	4	1	0	7	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	7-13	54%
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	21.5	3	75%	4	3	0	0	2	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%

Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	28.9	3	30%	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	25.3	27	96%	3	3	1	0	2	0	1	2	7-7	100%	4-4	100%	4-7	57%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	9.9	6	50%	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	3-4	75%	0-0	-	1-4	25%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	9.8	5	42%	5	2	0	0	0	2	3	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-3	33%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Acl; 3rd Degree Sprain
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	61%	48	21	7	2	17	18	12	36	25-30	83%	23-47	49%	17-39	44%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.08 53.8%

MIA

1.22 61.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

67%

MIA

44%

Midrange

ATL

46%

MIA

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

28.5

35%

53%

MIA

25.5

44%

65%

Free Throws

ATL

71%

MIA

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Young	30	65%	15.0 / 23
D. Murray	24	57%	12.0 / 21
B. Bogdanović	23	46%	11.5 / 25
S. Bey	16	53%	8.0 / 15
O. Okongwu	9	56%	4.5 / 8
C. Capela	8	100%	4.0 / 4
P. Mills	3	75%	1.5 / 2
G. Mathews	0	-	0.0 / 3
W. Matthews	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	30	71%	15.0 / 21
D. Robinson	27	96%	13.5 / 14
J. Jaquez	19	59%	9.5 / 16
B. Adebayo	18	47%	9.0 / 19
C. Martin	11	61%	5.5 / 9
K. Love	6	50%	3.0 / 6
H. Highsmith	5	42%	2.5 / 6
K. Lowry	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Richardson	3	30%	1.5 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 116.4 21 113.3	ATL 111.9 MIA 122.0 +10.1
Pace	6 100.9 29 97.0	ATL 100.6 +0.2 MIA 100.4
Avg. Poss. Time	21 14.2 10 14.8	ATL 14.3 −0.0 MIA 14.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 53.9% 20 53.8%	ATL 53.6% MIA 56.4% +2.8%
TO %	13 12.5% 9 12.2%	ATL 12.1% −2.5% MIA 14.6%
ORB %	5 27.1% 26 21.8%	ATL 25.0% MIA 27.9% +2.9%
FTrt	12 25.1 8 25.7	ATL 14.6 MIA 34.9 +20.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	19 61.8% 11 64.8%	ATL 69.0% +16.5% MIA 52.5%
STL %	18 7.4% 11 7.7%	ATL 8.9% +1.9% MIA 7.0%
BLK %	21 9.0% 30 7.7%	ATL 4.3% MIA 4.8% +0.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	16 56.3% 17 56.2%	ATL 53.8% MIA 61.0% +7.2%
Rim FG%	28 60.3% 23 61.6%	ATL 66.7% +22.3% MIA 44.4%
Mid FG%	6 45.2% 13 44.3%	ATL 45.8% MIA 51.7% +5.9%
3P %	17 36.4% 12 37.0%	ATL 35.2% MIA 43.6% +8.4%
FT %	8 79.7% 5 81.8%	ATL 71.4% MIA 83.3% +11.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	18 32.8% 29 29.5%	ATL 18.8% MIA 20.9% +2.2%
Mid Att. %	11 26.5% 28 31.1%	ATL 25.0% −8.7% MIA 33.7%
3P Att. %	9 40.8% 14 39.4%	ATL 56.3% +10.9% MIA 45.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	MIA
Possessions	101	100
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	113	122
Rebounds	43	48
Assists	29	21
Steals	9	7
Blocks	2	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	17 (0)
Fouls	23	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (5)	12 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (2)	36 (3)
Field Goals	42-96	40-86
At-the-Rim FG	12-18	8-18
Midrange FG	11-24	15-29
2-Point FG	23-42	23-47
3-Point FG	19-54	17-39
Free Throws	10-14	25-30
Fast Break Pts	10	9
2nd Chance Pts	13	16
Points in Paint	40	36
Pts off Turnovers	22	15
Bench Points	35	41
Biggest Lead	11	12

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg