Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, December 28, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	13	Grizzlies	29%	105	105	104.0	101	100.4
	2	Nuggets	71%	113	142	140.6	101	101.6

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+12

-11

102

DEN

+15

-11

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.03 51.5%

DEN

1.35 67.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

13 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 23	29.8	5	31%	11	2	0	0	0	3	4	7	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	1-4	25%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 24	27.8	14	41%	4	2	2	0	0	1	1	3	3-4	75%	4-12	33%	1-3	33%
Desmond Bane #22 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 26	25.2	23	88%	1	2	1	0	2	3	0	1	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	3-5	60%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 30	23.1	17	53%	3	5	1	0	3	1	1	2	3-4	75%	4-8	50%	2-6	33%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 31	21.9	2	25%	5	1	0	1	2	3	1	4	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-

David Roddy #21 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 23	28.9	15	58%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4-8	50%	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	24.9	10	56%	7	3	2	1	1	1	3	4	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	1-5	20%
Ziaire Williams #8 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 22	24.4	7	39%	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	1-3	33%
Xavier Tillman #2 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	22.0	6	38%	3	4	1	1	2	0	0	3	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Jacob Gilyard #0 · PG · 5'9" 160 · 25	12.0	6	100%	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 24	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 23	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Jake LaRavia #3 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 19	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Steven Adams #4 · C · 6'11" 265 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; PCL Surgery
Derrick Rose #23 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendon Repair
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	52%	36	23	8	5	11	13	11	25	18-25	72%	24-54	44%	13-35	37%

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13 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 23	29.8	5	31%	11	2	0	0	0	3	4	7	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	1-4	25%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 24	27.8	14	41%	4	2	2	0	0	1	1	3	3-4	75%	4-12	33%	1-3	33%
Desmond Bane #22 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 26	25.2	23	88%	1	2	1	0	2	3	0	1	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	3-5	60%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 30	23.1	17	53%	3	5	1	0	3	1	1	2	3-4	75%	4-8	50%	2-6	33%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 31	21.9	2	25%	5	1	0	1	2	3	1	4	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-

David Roddy #21 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 23	28.9	15	58%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4-8	50%	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	24.9	10	56%	7	3	2	1	1	1	3	4	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	1-5	20%
Ziaire Williams #8 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 22	24.4	7	39%	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	1-3	33%
Xavier Tillman #2 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	22.0	6	38%	3	4	1	1	2	0	0	3	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Jacob Gilyard #0 · PG · 5'9" 160 · 25	12.0	6	100%	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 24	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 23	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Jake LaRavia #3 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 19	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Steven Adams #4 · C · 6'11" 265 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; PCL Surgery
Derrick Rose #23 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendon Repair
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	52%	36	23	8	5	11	13	11	25	18-25	72%	24-54	44%	13-35	37%

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2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	30.0	26	108%	14	10	0	2	3	1	0	14	3-3	100%	10-10	100%	1-1	100%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	25.7	23	96%	3	9	2	0	1	0	2	1	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	4-6	67%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	25.2	12	60%	2	3	0	1	0	2	2	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	23.0	20	63%	5	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	4-10	40%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 25	22.8	8	67%	4	0	0	1	2	3	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	24.7	12	46%	3	2	0	1	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-8	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	23.4	11	55%	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	3	2-4	50%	3-6	50%	1-2	50%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	18.0	8	80%	2	1	2	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	16.8	9	56%	2	7	1	0	3	1	1	1	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	1-1	100%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 35	12.5	4	67%	9	2	0	2	0	3	5	4	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	7.0	2	50%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	5.5	4	67%	3	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	5.5	3	75%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Face/Hand; Lacerations
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	142	68%	53	43	6	7	11	19	12	41	12-14	86%	35-55	64%	20-41	49%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.03 51.5%

DEN

1.35 67.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

52%

DEN

69%

Midrange

MEM

33%

DEN

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

19.5

37%

56%

DEN

30.0

49%

73%

Free Throws

MEM

72%

DEN

86%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Bane	23	88%	11.5 / 13
M. Smart	17	53%	8.5 / 16
D. Roddy	15	58%	7.5 / 13
J. Jackson	14	41%	7.0 / 17
J. Konchar	10	56%	5.0 / 9
Z. Williams	7	39%	3.5 / 9
X. Tillman	6	38%	3.0 / 8
J. Gilyard	6	100%	3.0 / 3
V. Williams	5	31%	2.5 / 8
B. Biyombo	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	26	108%	13.0 / 12
J. Murray	23	96%	11.5 / 12
P. Watson	20	63%	10.0 / 16
K. Caldwell-Pope	12	60%	6.0 / 10
J. Strawther	12	46%	6.0 / 13
C. Braun	11	55%	5.5 / 10
R. Jackson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
M. Porter	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. Holiday	8	80%	4.0 / 5
D. Jordan	4	67%	2.0 / 3
Z. Nnaji	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Pickett	3	75%	1.5 / 2
B. Key	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 106.8 5 117.9	MEM 104.0 DEN 140.6 +36.6
Pace	17 98.6 26 97.4	MEM 100.4 DEN 101.6 +1.1
Avg. Poss. Time	11 14.8 4 15.0	MEM 14.3 DEN 14.2 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	29 50.9% 8 56.2%	MEM 48.9% DEN 67.7% +18.8%
TO %	27 14.3% 7 12.1%	MEM 9.9% −0.6% DEN 10.5%
ORB %	19 23.8% 6 25.5%	MEM 21.2% DEN 32.4% +11.2%
FTrt	18 23.8 24 22.4	MEM 28.1 +13.5 DEN 14.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.4% 5 66.9%	MEM 62.2% DEN 78.2% +16.0%
STL %	5 8.3% 20 7.3%	MEM 7.9% +2.0% DEN 5.9%
BLK %	1 11.9% 25 8.7%	MEM 9.1% DEN 13.0% +3.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.39 and 2.39.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 52.9% 11 57.5%	MEM 51.5% DEN 67.6% +16.1%
Rim FG%	30 57.8% 17 63.6%	MEM 51.5% DEN 69.0% +17.5%
Mid FG%	26 40.3% 3 47.0%	MEM 33.3% DEN 46.2% +12.9%
3P %	29 34.6% 10 37.4%	MEM 37.1% DEN 48.8% +11.7%
FT %	23 76.4% 25 76.2%	MEM 72.0% DEN 85.7% +13.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 32.3% 4 36.0%	MEM 37.1% DEN 43.8% +6.7%
Mid Att. %	4 24.9% 25 28.8%	MEM 23.6% DEN 13.5% −10.1%
3P Att. %	5 42.8% 30 35.2%	MEM 39.3% DEN 42.7% +3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Game Totals	MEM	DEN
Possessions	101	101
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	105	142
Rebounds	36	53
Assists	23	43
Steals	8	6
Blocks	5	7
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	11 (1)
Fouls	13	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (1)	12 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	25 (2)	41 (3)
Field Goals	37-89	55-96
At-the-Rim FG	17-33	29-42
Midrange FG	7-21	6-13
2-Point FG	24-54	35-55
3-Point FG	13-35	20-41
Free Throws	18-25	12-14
Fast Break Pts	12	20
2nd Chance Pts	10	15
Points in Paint	46	64
Pts off Turnovers	17	16
Bench Points	44	53
Biggest Lead	8	38

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg