Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

Final	W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	16	Heat	45%	110	123	121.8	101	102.7
	12	Bucks	55%	111	97	96.0	101	99.3

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	31.3	16	57%	12	11	2	0	3	2	5	7	0-0	-	8-14	57%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	30.5	24	80%	7	3	1	0	0	1	0	7	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	5-8	63%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 24	30.2	19	56%	3	5	0	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	4-8	50%	3-8	38%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	26.3	23	96%	3	5	2	1	0	1	0	3	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	6-8	75%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	24.8	2	33%	1	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	27.9	12	46%	3	4	0	0	3	3	1	2	2-3	67%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	23.5	19	95%	8	3	2	0	1	2	0	8	2-4	50%	1-1	100%	5-7	71%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	23.0	2	25%	4	0	2	1	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	6.3	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	6.3	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	5.6	2	33%	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	4.5	2	100%	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Dislocation
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	63%	47	34	10	3	14	13	7	40	14-18	78%	26-47	55%	19-40	48%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	31.3	16	57%	12	11	2	0	3	2	5	7	0-0	-	8-14	57%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	30.5	24	80%	7	3	1	0	0	1	0	7	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	5-8	63%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 24	30.2	19	56%	3	5	0	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	4-8	50%	3-8	38%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	26.3	23	96%	3	5	2	1	0	1	0	3	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	6-8	75%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	24.8	2	33%	1	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	27.9	12	46%	3	4	0	0	3	3	1	2	2-3	67%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	23.5	19	95%	8	3	2	0	1	2	0	8	2-4	50%	1-1	100%	5-7	71%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	23.0	2	25%	4	0	2	1	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	6.3	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	6.3	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	5.6	2	33%	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	4.5	2	100%	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Dislocation
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	63%	47	34	10	3	14	13	7	40	14-18	78%	26-47	55%	19-40	48%

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12 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 29	33.6	23	64%	11	8	0	2	5	0	2	9	0-0	-	10-16	63%	1-2	50%
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 34	32.4	16	53%	2	5	0	0	3	1	0	2	4-4	100%	3-7	43%	2-7	29%
Malik Beasley #5 · SG · 6'5" 196 · 27	27.5	16	80%	3	0	3	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	4-8	50%
Brook Lopez #11 · C · 7'1" 282 · 36	23.4	7	39%	3	0	0	1	2	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-6	17%
Jae Crowder #99 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 34	17.8	2	100%	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Bobby Portis Jr. #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 29	25.5	16	62%	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Pat Connaughton #24 · SG · 6'5" 209 · 31	24.4	0	0%	6	3	1	0	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	14.9	4	29%	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	1-1	100%	0-1	0%	1-6	17%
Patrick Beverley #21 · PG · 6'1" 185 · 36	12.9	3	50%	2	2	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 22	7.7	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
MarJon Beauchamp #3 · SF · 6'7" 199 · 23	7.7	8	67%	2	0	1	0	2	1	1	1	3-4	75%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 32	7.7	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
TyTy Washington Jr. #23 · PG · 6'3" 195 · 22	4.5	0	0%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Chris Livingston #7 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	55%	38	24	8	4	18	12	5	33	10-11	91%	24-44	55%	13-39	33%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	MIL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.27 63.4%

MIL

1.09 54.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

15

21

71%

MIL

15

21

71%

Midrange

MIA

11

26

42%

MIL

9

23

39%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

19

28.5

40

48%

71%

MIL

13

19.5

39

33%

50%

Free Throws

MIA

14

18

78%

MIL

10

11

91%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

%

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jović	24	80%	12.0 / 15
D. Robinson	23	96%	11.5 / 12
T. Herro	19	56%	9.5 / 17
K. Love	19	95%	9.5 / 10
B. Adebayo	16	57%	8.0 / 14
J. Jaquez	12	46%	6.0 / 13
C. Martin	2	33%	1.0 / 3
H. Highsmith	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. Cain	2	50%	1.0 / 2
C. Swider	2	33%	1.0 / 3
O. Robinson	2	100%	1.0 / 1
A. Williams	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

|

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo	23	64%	11.5 / 18
D. Lillard	16	53%	8.0 / 15
M. Beasley	16	80%	8.0 / 10
B. Portis	16	62%	8.0 / 13
M. Beauchamp	8	67%	4.0 / 6
B. Lopez	7	39%	3.5 / 9
A. Green	4	29%	2.0 / 7
P. Beverley	3	50%	1.5 / 3
J. Crowder	2	100%	1.0 / 1
T. Antetokounmpo	2	100%	1.0 / 1
P. Connaughton	0	-	0.0 / 2
A. Jackson	0	-	0.0 / 1
T. Washington	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.3 6 117.6	MIA 121.8 +25.7 MIL 96.0
Pace	29 97.0 8 100.6	MIA 102.7 +3.4 MIL 99.3
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 19 14.4	MIA 14.0 −0.5 MIL 14.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.8% 4 56.8%	MIA 62.6% +10.2% MIL 52.4%
TO %	9 12.2% 10 12.2%	MIA 12.9% −4.1% MIL 17.0%
ORB %	26 21.8% 25 21.8%	MIA 17.5% +6.4% MIL 11.1%
FTrt	8 25.7 4 27.0	MIA 20.7 +7.4 MIL 13.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 64.8% 20 61.5%	MIA 75.6% +10.7% MIL 64.9%
STL %	11 7.7% 28 6.7%	MIA 9.9% +2.0% MIL 7.9%
BLK %	30 7.7% 28 8.5%	MIA 6.8% MIL 8.5% +1.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	17 56.2% 6 58.8%	MIA 63.4% +8.9% MIL 54.5%
Rim FG%	23 61.6% 4 67.9%	MIA 71.4% MIL 71.4%
Mid FG%	13 44.3% 11 44.5%	MIA 42.3% +3.2% MIL 39.1%
3P %	12 37.0% 11 37.3%	MIA 47.5% +14.2% MIL 33.3%
FT %	5 81.8% 19 77.4%	MIA 77.8% MIL 90.9% +13.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 29.5% 24 31.5%	MIA 24.1% MIL 25.3% +1.2%
Mid Att. %	28 31.1% 7 25.4%	MIA 29.9% MIL 27.7% −2.2%
3P Att. %	14 39.4% 4 43.0%	MIA 46.0% MIL 47.0% +1.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	MIL
Possessions	101	101
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	123	97
Rebounds	47	38
Assists	34	24
Steals	10	8
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	18 (0)
Fouls	13	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (3)	5 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (0)	33 (1)
Field Goals	45-87	37-83
At-the-Rim FG	15-21	15-21
Midrange FG	11-26	9-23
2-Point FG	26-47	24-44
3-Point FG	19-40	13-39
Free Throws	14-18	10-11
Fast Break Pts	17	12
2nd Chance Pts	13	8
Points in Paint	52	40
Pts off Turnovers	35	14
Bench Points	39	33
Biggest Lead	31	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg