Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, February 29, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Heat	41%	107	97	97.0	100	98.2
	7	Nuggets	59%	110	103	104.0	99	100.8

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+12

-14

DEN

+11

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.99 49.5%

DEN

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	40.3	21	50%	7	3	1	0	0	1	3	4	6-9	67%	6-13	46%	1-4	25%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	36.0	12	67%	3	3	3	0	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	2-6	33%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	35.7	22	52%	8	3	1	0	1	5	1	7	6-6	100%	8-18	44%	0-0	-
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	32.8	19	53%	5	4	1	0	3	1	0	5	6-6	100%	5-7	71%	1-8	13%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	24.6	7	44%	6	1	2	0	3	0	0	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%

Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	28.3	13	65%	9	1	0	1	2	4	3	6	1-1	100%	3-7	43%	2-3	67%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	26.8	3	25%	4	5	2	0	3	1	1	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	12.3	0	0%	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Delon Wright #4 · SG · 6'4" 185 · 32	3.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Hyperextension
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	NWT - Not With Team
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Dislocation
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	50%	45	21	10	8	14	16	9	36	20-24	83%	28-57	49%	7-26	27%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	40.3	21	50%	7	3	1	0	0	1	3	4	6-9	67%	6-13	46%	1-4	25%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	36.0	12	67%	3	3	3	0	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	2-6	33%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	35.7	22	52%	8	3	1	0	1	5	1	7	6-6	100%	8-18	44%	0-0	-
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	32.8	19	53%	5	4	1	0	3	1	0	5	6-6	100%	5-7	71%	1-8	13%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	24.6	7	44%	6	1	2	0	3	0	0	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%

Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	28.3	13	65%	9	1	0	1	2	4	3	6	1-1	100%	3-7	43%	2-3	67%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	26.8	3	25%	4	5	2	0	3	1	1	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	12.3	0	0%	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Delon Wright #4 · SG · 6'4" 185 · 32	3.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Hyperextension
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	NWT - Not With Team
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Dislocation
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	50%	45	21	10	8	14	16	9	36	20-24	83%	28-57	49%	7-26	27%

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7 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	38.3	30	63%	11	3	2	2	2	2	2	9	2-2	100%	8-13	62%	4-10	40%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	38.0	18	50%	11	7	1	2	4	4	2	9	6-6	100%	6-12	50%	0-3	0%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	37.3	16	73%	9	3	3	1	4	2	2	7	6-6	100%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	34.4	18	69%	2	2	1	1	1	4	1	1	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	4-8	50%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	14.1	6	50%	1	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	2-3	67%

Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	29.4	6	30%	2	2	1	0	1	5	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-5	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	20.2	2	50%	2	1	1	1	0	3	1	1	0-1	0%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	15.0	0	0%	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	7.8	6	75%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	5.6	1	25%	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	INACTIVE
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	54%	41	22	10	1	15	23	9	32	19-21	90%	24-50	48%	12-34	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.99 49.5%

DEN

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

52%

DEN

52%

Midrange

MIA

46%

DEN

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

10.5

27%

40%

DEN

18.0

35%

53%

Free Throws

MIA

83%

DEN

90%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	22	52%	11.0 / 21
J. Butler	21	50%	10.5 / 21
T. Rozier	19	53%	9.5 / 18
C. Martin	13	65%	6.5 / 10
D. Robinson	12	67%	6.0 / 9
N. Jović	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Jaquez	3	25%	1.5 / 6
D. Wright	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Porter	30	63%	15.0 / 24
N. Jokić	18	50%	9.0 / 18
K. Caldwell-Pope	18	69%	9.0 / 13
A. Gordon	16	73%	8.0 / 11
J. Murray	6	50%	3.0 / 6
R. Jackson	6	30%	3.0 / 10
J. Holiday	6	75%	3.0 / 4
C. Braun	2	50%	1.0 / 2
Z. Nnaji	1	25%	0.5 / 2
P. Watson	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.3 5 117.9	MIA 97.0 DEN 104.0 +7.0
Pace	29 97.0 26 97.4	MIA 98.2 DEN 100.8 +2.6
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 4 15.0	MIA 14.7 DEN 14.3 −0.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.8% 8 56.2%	MIA 46.4% DEN 50.0% +3.6%
TO %	9 12.2% 7 12.1%	MIA 13.8% −0.1% DEN 13.9%
ORB %	26 21.8% 6 25.5%	MIA 22.0% +2.0% DEN 20.0%
FTrt	8 25.7 24 22.4	MIA 28.9 +3.9 DEN 25.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 64.8% 5 66.9%	MIA 60.0% DEN 61.1% +1.1%
STL %	11 7.7% 20 7.3%	MIA 10.0% DEN 10.1% +0.1%
BLK %	30 7.7% 25 8.7%	MIA 16.0% +14.2% DEN 1.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	17 56.2% 11 57.5%	MIA 49.5% DEN 54.2% +4.7%
Rim FG%	23 61.6% 17 63.6%	MIA 51.5% DEN 51.9% +0.4%
Mid FG%	13 44.3% 3 47.0%	MIA 45.8% +2.3% DEN 43.5%
3P %	12 37.0% 10 37.4%	MIA 26.9% DEN 35.3% +8.4%
FT %	5 81.8% 25 76.2%	MIA 83.3% DEN 90.5% +7.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 29.5% 4 36.0%	MIA 39.8% +7.6% DEN 32.1%
Mid Att. %	28 31.1% 25 28.8%	MIA 28.9% DEN 27.4% −1.5%
3P Att. %	14 39.4% 30 35.2%	MIA 31.3% DEN 40.5% +9.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	DEN
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	97	103
Rebounds	45	41
Assists	21	22
Steals	10	10
Blocks	8	1
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	15 (0)
Fouls	16	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (3)	9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (3)	32 (5)
Field Goals	35-83	36-84
At-the-Rim FG	17-33	14-27
Midrange FG	11-24	10-23
2-Point FG	28-57	24-50
3-Point FG	7-26	12-34
Free Throws	20-24	19-21
Fast Break Pts	12	9
2nd Chance Pts	11	13
Points in Paint	48	40
Pts off Turnovers	12	15
Bench Points	16	15
Biggest Lead	0	16

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg