FinalWin Prob.pScore
2333%109
120
1267%116
126
ORTG#PossPace
UTA logo UTA
126.39590.4
MIA logo MIA
129.997103.5

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

HeatJazzQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatJazzQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventUTAMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0End of 4th Quarter.120
126
Q4 - 0:10.0JazzKeyonte George makes two point driving layup120
126
Q4 - 0:16.3HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2118
126
Q4 - 0:16.3HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2118
125
Q4 - 0:16.3JazzLauri Markkanen personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)118
124
Q4 - 0:16.4HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound118
124
Q4 - 0:20.4JazzLauri Markkanen misses two point driving finger roll layup118
124
Q4 - 0:24.0Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith)118
124
Q4 - 0:24.0Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Kris Dunn)118
124
Q4 - 0:24.0Jazz 60 second timeout118
124
Q4 - 0:24.2HeatTerry Rozier makes two point driving layup118
124
Q4 - 0:35.8JazzKeyonte George makes two point running finger roll layup118
122
Q4 - 0:39.0JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound116
122
Q4 - 0:43.3HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot116
122
Q4 - 1:01JazzLauri Markkanen makes three point jump shot (Keyonte George assists)116
122
Q4 - 1:11HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 1113
122
Q4 - 1:11JazzTaylor Hendricks shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)113
121
Q4 - 1:11HeatJimmy Butler makes two point driving layup (Terry Rozier assists)113
121
Q4 - 1:34JazzCollin Sexton makes two point stepback jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)113
119
Q4 - 1:55HeatJimmy Butler makes two point stepback jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)111
119
Q4 - 2:11Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo)111
117
Q4 - 2:11Stoppage (Blood rule)111
117
Q4 - 2:17JazzLauri Markkanen makes two point putback dunk111
117
Q4 - 2:19JazzLauri Markkanen offensive rebound109
117
Q4 - 2:20JazzKeyonte George misses two point driving floating jump shot109
117
Q4 - 2:38HeatCaleb Martin makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)109
117
Q4 - 2:53JazzLauri Markkanen turnover (lost ball) (Jimmy Butler steals)109
114
Q4 - 3:02HeatTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 2 of 2109
114
Q4 - 3:02HeatTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 1 of 2109
113
Q4 - 3:02JazzLauri Markkanen shooting foul (Terry Rozier draws the foul)109
112
Q4 - 3:03HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound109
112
Q4 - 3:07JazzCaleb Martin blocks Collin Sexton's two point running finger roll layup109
112
Q4 - 3:11JazzLauri Markkanen defensive rebound109
112
Q4 - 3:14HeatJimmy Butler misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot109
112
Q4 - 3:44JazzJohn Collins makes two point alley-oop dunk (Collin Sexton assists)109
112
Q4 - 3:48HeatBam Adebayo makes two point tip layup107
112
Q4 - 3:48HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound107
110
Q4 - 3:53HeatTerry Rozier misses two point running layup107
110
Q4 - 3:56HeatTerry Rozier defensive rebound107
110
Q4 - 4:00JazzKeyonte George misses three point pullup jump shot107
110
Q4 - 4:22HeatCaleb Martin makes two point cutting layup (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)107
110
Q4 - 4:23HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound107
108
Q4 - 4:25HeatCaleb Martin misses three point jump shot107
108
Q4 - 4:43JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 2 of 2107
108
Q4 - 4:43JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 1 of 2106
108
Q4 - 4:43HeatBam Adebayo shooting foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)105
108
Q4 - 4:54JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound105
108
Q4 - 4:56HeatJimmy Butler misses regular free throw 1 of 1105
108
Q4 - 4:56Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin)105
108
Q4 - 4:56Jazz 60 second timeout105
108
Q4 - 4:56JazzLauri Markkanen shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)105
108
Q4 - 4:56HeatJimmy Butler makes two point driving layup105
108
Q4 - 5:09JazzLauri Markkanen makes three point running jump shot (Keyonte George assists)105
106
Q4 - 5:11JazzKeyonte George defensive rebound102
106
Q4 - 5:14HeatJimmy Butler misses two point running layup102
106
Q4 - 5:19JazzTaylor Hendricks turnover (lost ball) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)102
106
Q4 - 5:20JazzTaylor Hendricks offensive rebound102
106
Q4 - 5:24JazzKeyonte George misses three point running jump shot102
106
Q4 - 5:27JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound102
106
Q4 - 5:30HeatHaywood Highsmith misses three point running jump shot102
106
Q4 - 5:37HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound102
106
Q4 - 5:37JazzHaywood Highsmith blocks Collin Sexton's two point driving layup102
106
Q4 - 5:42JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound102
106
Q4 - 5:46HeatHaywood Highsmith misses three point jump shot102
106
Q4 - 5:57JazzKeyonte George turnover (out of bounds lost ball)102
106
Q4 - 6:03Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith)102
106
Q4 - 6:03HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. personal foul (John Collins draws the foul)102
106
Q4 - 6:14HeatBam Adebayo makes two point driving finger roll layup102
106
Q4 - 6:32HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound102
104
Q4 - 6:35JazzLauri Markkanen misses three point jump shot102
104
Q4 - 7:01HeatBam Adebayo makes two point driving hook shot102
104
Q4 - 7:15Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins)102
102
Q4 - 7:15Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith)102
102
Q4 - 7:15Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)102
102
Q4 - 7:15Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith)102
102
Q4 - 7:15Jazz 60 second timeout102
102
Q4 - 7:15Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith)102
102
Q4 - 7:15Stoppage (Out of bounds)102
102
Q4 - 7:15HeatHeat defensive rebound102
102
Q4 - 7:16JazzKeyonte George misses three point stepback jump shot102
102
Q4 - 7:31Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Brice Sensabaugh, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins)102
102
Q4 - 7:31HeatCaleb Martin personal foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)102
102
Q4 - 7:53HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point cutting layup (Duncan Robinson assists)102
102
Q4 - 8:07JazzJohn Collins makes two point driving layup (Lauri Markkanen assists)102
100
Q4 - 8:28Stoppage (Out of bounds)100
100
Q4 - 8:28JazzJazz defensive rebound100
100
Q4 - 8:30HeatBam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2100
100
Q4 - 8:30HeatBam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2100
100
Q4 - 8:30JazzLauri Markkanen shooting foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)100
99
Q4 - 8:45JazzKeyonte George makes two point driving finger roll layup100
99
Q4 - 8:54JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound98
99
Q4 - 8:57HeatHaywood Highsmith misses three point jump shot98
99
Q4 - 9:18JazzKeyonte George makes three point pullup jump shot98
99
Q4 - 9:36HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 295
99
Q4 - 9:36HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 295
98
Q4 - 9:36JazzTalen Horton-Tucker shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)95
98
Q4 - 9:43JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 2 of 295
98
Q4 - 9:43Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins)94
98
Q4 - 9:43JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 1 of 294
98
Q4 - 9:43HeatDuncan Robinson shooting foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)93
98
Q4 - 10:07HeatDuncan Robinson makes two point driving floating jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)93
98
Q4 - 10:24JazzBrice Sensabaugh turnover (out of bounds lost ball)93
96
Q4 - 10:40HeatHaywood Highsmith makes two point running dunk (Caleb Martin assists)93
96
Q4 - 10:44HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound93
94
Q4 - 10:46JazzTalen Horton-Tucker misses two point driving layup93
94
Q4 - 10:53JazzOmer Yurtseven defensive rebound93
94
Q4 - 10:57HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot93
94
Q4 - 11:04Stoppage (Court cleanup)93
94
Q4 - 11:04JazzKeyonte George turnover (out of bounds lost ball)93
94
Q4 - 11:14HeatCaleb Martin makes regular free throw 2 of 293
94
Q4 - 11:14HeatCaleb Martin makes regular free throw 1 of 293
93
Q4 - 11:14JazzTalen Horton-Tucker shooting foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)93
92
Q4 - 11:24JazzKeyonte George makes three point jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)93
92
Q4 - 11:43HeatBam Adebayo makes two point turnaround fadeaway bank jump shot90
92
Q3 - 0:00.0End of 3rd Quarter.90
90
Q3 - 0:00.0HeatHeat offensive rebound90
90
Q3 - 0:00.0HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot90
90
Q3 - 0:09.0JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 2 of 290
90
Q3 - 0:09.0JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 1 of 289
90
Q3 - 0:09.0HeatHaywood Highsmith shooting foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)88
90
Q3 - 0:30.8JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound88
90
Q3 - 0:30.8HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point pullup jump shot88
90
Q3 - 0:36.1Stoppage (Out of bounds)88
90
Q3 - 0:36.1HeatHeat defensive rebound88
90
Q3 - 0:37.1JazzLauri Markkanen misses regular free throw 2 of 288
90
Q3 - 0:37.1Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith)88
90
Q3 - 0:37.1Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Omer Yurtseven, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen)88
90
Q3 - 0:37.1JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 1 of 288
90
Q3 - 0:37.1HeatNikola Jovic personal foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)87
90
Q3 - 0:41.3HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point layup (Bam Adebayo assists)87
90
Q3 - 0:59.7JazzOmer Yurtseven makes two point cutting layup (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)87
88
Q3 - 1:11JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound85
88
Q3 - 1:14HeatNikola Jovic misses three point jump shot85
88
Q3 - 1:21HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound85
88
Q3 - 1:25JazzTalen Horton-Tucker misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot85
88
Q3 - 1:48HeatCaleb Martin makes regular free throw 2 of 285
88
Q3 - 1:48Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin)85
87
Q3 - 1:48HeatCaleb Martin makes regular free throw 1 of 285
87
Q3 - 1:48JazzTalen Horton-Tucker personal foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)85
86
Q3 - 2:00HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound85
86
Q3 - 2:03JazzKris Dunn misses three point jump shot85
86
Q3 - 2:21HeatJimmy Butler makes two point layup (Nikola Jovic assists)85
86
Q3 - 2:36JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 2 of 285
84
Q3 - 2:36JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 1 of 284
84
Q3 - 2:36Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin)83
84
Q3 - 2:36Heat 60 second timeout83
84
Q3 - 2:36HeatTerry Rozier personal foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)83
84
Q3 - 2:51HeatNikola Jovic makes two point driving finger roll layup (Jimmy Butler assists)83
84
Q3 - 3:11JazzTalen Horton-Tucker makes three point jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)83
82
Q3 - 3:15JazzOmer Yurtseven defensive rebound80
82
Q3 - 3:19HeatOrlando Robinson misses two point hook shot80
82
Q3 - 3:24HeatOrlando Robinson offensive rebound80
82
Q3 - 3:28HeatTerry Rozier misses three point pullup jump shot80
82
Q3 - 3:42JazzKeyonte George makes two point driving floating jump shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)80
82
Q3 - 3:55Jump ball. Omer Yurtseven vs. Orlando Robinson (Talen Horton-Tucker gains possession)78
82
Q3 - 3:55JazzJazz offensive rebound78
82
Q3 - 4:03JazzOmer Yurtseven misses two point floating jump shot78
82
Q3 - 4:16HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 278
82
Q3 - 4:16Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Omer Yurtseven, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn)78
81
Q3 - 4:16HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 278
81
Q3 - 4:16JazzKris Dunn shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)78
80
Q3 - 4:20Jump ball. Orlando Robinson vs. John Collins (Terry Rozier gains possession)78
80
Q3 - 4:23Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, Orlando Robinson)78
80
Q3 - 4:23HeatHeat defensive rebound78
80
Q3 - 4:26JazzKeyonte George misses three point jump shot78
80
Q3 - 4:47HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 178
80
Q3 - 4:47JazzTaylor Hendricks shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)78
79
Q3 - 4:47HeatJimmy Butler makes two point running layup (Duncan Robinson assists)78
79
Q3 - 4:50JazzKeyonte George turnover (bad pass) (Nikola Jovic steals)78
77
Q3 - 4:56HeatOrlando Robinson personal foul (Collin Sexton draws the foul)78
77
Q3 - 5:13HeatTerry Rozier makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)78
77
Q3 - 5:19HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound78
74
Q3 - 5:22JazzKeyonte George misses two point driving finger roll layup78
74
Q3 - 5:36HeatJimmy Butler makes two point layup (Terry Rozier assists)78
74
Q3 - 5:49JazzCollin Sexton makes regular free throw 2 of 278
72
Q3 - 5:49JazzCollin Sexton makes regular free throw 1 of 277
72
Q3 - 5:49HeatOrlando Robinson shooting foul (Collin Sexton draws the foul)76
72
Q3 - 5:53Stoppage (Out of bounds)76
72
Q3 - 5:53JazzJazz offensive rebound76
72
Q3 - 5:53JazzTaylor Hendricks misses two point driving layup76
72
Q3 - 6:06Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Taylor Hendricks, John Collins, Kris Dunn)76
72
Q3 - 6:06Stoppage (Out of bounds)76
72
Q3 - 6:06JazzJazz defensive rebound76
72
Q3 - 6:08HeatJimmy Butler misses two point turnaround jump shot76
72
Q3 - 6:18HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound76
72
Q3 - 6:20JazzCollin Sexton misses two point stepback jump shot76
72
Q3 - 6:37JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound76
72
Q3 - 6:39HeatTerry Rozier misses regular free throw 2 of 276
72
Q3 - 6:39HeatTerry Rozier makes regular free throw 1 of 276
72
Q3 - 6:39JazzJohn Collins shooting foul (Terry Rozier draws the foul)76
71
Q3 - 6:42JazzKeyonte George turnover (bad pass) (Orlando Robinson steals)76
71
Q3 - 6:56HeatTerry Rozier makes two point running finger roll layup76
71
Q3 - 7:00JazzKeyonte George turnover (bad pass) (Terry Rozier steals)76
69
Q3 - 7:06HeatTerry Rozier personal foul (Collin Sexton draws the foul)76
69
Q3 - 7:25HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 276
69
Q3 - 7:25HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 276
68
Q3 - 7:25JazzTaylor Hendricks shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)76
67
Q3 - 7:34JazzJohn Collins personal foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)76
67
Q3 - 7:44JazzJohn Collins makes two point dunk (Collin Sexton assists)76
67
Q3 - 7:55JazzJohn Collins defensive rebound74
67
Q3 - 7:57HeatNikola Jovic misses three point jump shot74
67
Q3 - 8:05HeatNikola Jovic offensive rebound74
67
Q3 - 8:06HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot74
67
Q3 - 8:18JazzKeyonte George makes two point driving layup74
67
Q3 - 8:29HeatDuncan Robinson personal foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)72
67
Q3 - 8:42HeatJimmy Butler makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)72
67
Q3 - 9:07JazzKeyonte George makes three point jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)72
64
Q3 - 9:22Heat lineup change (Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, Orlando Robinson)69
64
Q3 - 9:22Jazz 60 second timeout69
64
Q3 - 9:22HeatJimmy Butler makes two point running layup (Terry Rozier assists)69
64
Q3 - 9:28JazzJohn Collins turnover (bad pass) (Duncan Robinson steals)69
62
Q3 - 9:38HeatDuncan Robinson makes two point driving finger roll layup (Terry Rozier assists)69
62
Q3 - 9:46HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound69
60
Q3 - 9:49JazzKeyonte George misses three point pullup jump shot69
60
Q3 - 9:58HeatJimmy Butler makes two point putback layup69
60
Q3 - 9:59HeatJimmy Butler offensive rebound69
58
Q3 - 10:02HeatTaylor Hendricks blocks Jimmy Butler's two point driving layup69
58
Q3 - 10:24JazzCollin Sexton makes two point pullup jump shot (Keyonte George assists)69
58
Q3 - 10:35JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound67
58
Q3 - 10:37HeatJimmy Butler misses two point layup67
58
Q3 - 10:55JazzKeyonte George makes three point pullup jump shot67
58
Q3 - 11:07Duncan Robinson kicked ball violation64
58
Q3 - 11:08JazzJohn Collins offensive rebound64
58
Q3 - 11:12JazzJohn Collins misses three point jump shot64
58
Q3 - 11:19JazzKeyonte George defensive rebound64
58
Q3 - 11:24HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot64
58
Q3 - 11:44JazzJohn Collins makes two point stepback jump shot64
58
Q3 - 12:00Heat lineup change (Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo)62
58
Q2 - 0:00.0End of 1st Half.62
58
Q2 - 0:00.0JazzJazz defensive rebound62
58
Q2 - 0:00.0HeatJimmy Butler misses two point pullup jump shot62
58
Q2 - 0:06.5JazzJazz turnover (shot clock violation)62
58
Q2 - 0:30.5HeatTerry Rozier turnover (out of bounds step)62
58
Q2 - 0:34.1HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound62
58
Q2 - 0:37.0JazzKeyonte George misses three point jump shot62
58
Q2 - 0:58.9HeatCaleb Martin makes three point jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)62
58
Q2 - 1:19JazzJohn Collins makes three point jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)62
55
Q2 - 1:26JazzJohn Collins defensive rebound59
55
Q2 - 1:28HeatTerry Rozier misses three point jump shot59
55
Q2 - 1:50JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 2 of 259
55
Q2 - 1:50JazzLauri Markkanen makes regular free throw 1 of 258
55
Q2 - 1:50Jazz 60 second timeout57
55
Q2 - 1:50HeatBam Adebayo shooting foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)57
55
Q2 - 1:53JazzLauri Markkanen defensive rebound57
55
Q2 - 1:56HeatCaleb Martin misses three point jump shot57
55
Q2 - 2:09JazzTaylor Hendricks makes two point tip layup57
55
Q2 - 2:09JazzTaylor Hendricks offensive rebound55
55
Q2 - 2:10JazzCollin Sexton misses two point pullup jump shot55
55
Q2 - 2:16JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound55
55
Q2 - 2:19HeatBam Adebayo misses two point fadeaway jump shot55
55
Q2 - 2:39JazzJohn Collins makes two point cutting layup (Collin Sexton assists)55
55
Q2 - 2:56HeatTerry Rozier makes two point fadeaway jump shot53
55
Q2 - 3:14JazzCollin Sexton makes two point driving floating jump shot (Taylor Hendricks assists)53
53
Q2 - 3:35HeatCaleb Martin makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)51
53
Q2 - 3:48Jump ball. Bam Adebayo vs. Taylor Hendricks (Jimmy Butler gains possession)51
50
Q2 - 3:50Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins)51
50
Q2 - 4:00JazzTaylor Hendricks makes two point pullup jump shot51
50
Q2 - 4:02JazzTaylor Hendricks offensive rebound49
50
Q2 - 4:06JazzDuncan Robinson blocks Taylor Hendricks's three point jump shot49
50
Q2 - 4:12Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)49
50
Q2 - 4:28HeatBam Adebayo makes two point cutting dunk (Caleb Martin assists)49
50
Q2 - 4:40Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Omer Yurtseven, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen)49
48
Q2 - 4:40JazzTalen Horton-Tucker personal foul (Loose ball) (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)49
48
Q2 - 4:40Jump ball. Bam Adebayo vs. Talen Horton-Tucker (Heat gains possession)49
48
Q2 - 4:41Heat lineup change (Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin)49
48
Q2 - 4:41HeatHeat defensive rebound49
48
Q2 - 4:42JazzTalen Horton-Tucker misses two point driving floating jump shot49
48
Q2 - 4:51JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound49
48
Q2 - 4:51HeatBam Adebayo misses two point jump shot49
48
Q2 - 5:01JazzTaylor Hendricks makes two point putback layup49
48
Q2 - 5:02JazzTaylor Hendricks offensive rebound47
48
Q2 - 5:05JazzLauri Markkanen misses two point running alley-oop dunk47
48
Q2 - 5:11JazzOmer Yurtseven defensive rebound47
48
Q2 - 5:16HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point pullup jump shot47
48
Q2 - 5:24JazzCollin Sexton makes two point driving layup47
48
Q2 - 5:43HeatBam Adebayo makes two point floating jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)45
48
Q2 - 5:55JazzCollin Sexton makes two point driving layup45
46
Q2 - 6:19HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)43
46
Q2 - 6:33HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound43
43
Q2 - 6:36JazzLauri Markkanen misses three point jump shot43
43
Q2 - 6:47Jazz lineup change (Collin Sexton, Omer Yurtseven, Taylor Hendricks, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen)43
43
Q2 - 6:47Heat 60 second timeout43
43
Q2 - 6:47HeatTerry Rozier turnover (out of bounds lost ball)43
43
Q2 - 6:55HeatHaywood Highsmith defensive rebound43
43
Q2 - 6:58JazzTalen Horton-Tucker misses three point jump shot43
43
Q2 - 7:13HeatBam Adebayo makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot43
43
Q2 - 7:35JazzTalen Horton-Tucker makes regular free throw 2 of 243
41
Q2 - 7:35Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith)42
41
Q2 - 7:35Jazz lineup change (Collin Sexton, Taylor Hendricks, Luka Samanic, Talen Horton-Tucker, John Collins)42
41
Q2 - 7:35JazzTalen Horton-Tucker makes regular free throw 1 of 242
41
Q2 - 7:35HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul (Talen Horton-Tucker draws the foul)41
41
Q2 - 7:35JazzJohn Collins defensive rebound41
41
Q2 - 7:38HeatOrlando Robinson misses three point jump shot41
41
Q2 - 7:56Jazz lineup change (Collin Sexton, Brice Sensabaugh, Luka Samanic, Talen Horton-Tucker, John Collins)41
41
Q2 - 7:56JazzBrice Sensabaugh turnover (out of bounds bad pass)41
41
Q2 - 7:58JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound41
41
Q2 - 7:58HeatJohn Collins blocks Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s two point putback layup41
41
Q2 - 7:59HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound41
41
Q2 - 8:02HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving reverse layup41
41
Q2 - 8:19JazzJohn Collins makes regular free throw 2 of 241
41
Q2 - 8:19JazzJohn Collins misses regular free throw 1 of 240
41
Q2 - 8:19HeatOrlando Robinson shooting foul (John Collins draws the foul)40
41
Q2 - 8:30Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Orlando Robinson, Haywood Highsmith)40
41
Q2 - 8:30Stoppage (Out of bounds)40
41
Q2 - 8:41HeatJimmy Butler makes three point jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)40
41
Q2 - 8:44Stoppage (Out of bounds)40
38
Q2 - 8:44HeatHeat offensive rebound40
38
Q2 - 8:44HeatTalen Horton-Tucker blocks Jimmy Butler's two point driving layup40
38
Q2 - 9:01JazzTalen Horton-Tucker makes regular free throw 2 of 240
38
Q2 - 9:01JazzTalen Horton-Tucker makes regular free throw 1 of 239
38
Q2 - 9:01HeatOrlando Robinson shooting foul (Talen Horton-Tucker draws the foul)38
38
Q2 - 9:01JazzTalen Horton-Tucker offensive rebound38
38
Q2 - 9:02JazzBrice Sensabaugh misses three point jump shot38
38
Q2 - 9:22HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot38
38
Q2 - 9:31HeatOrlando Robinson defensive rebound38
36
Q2 - 9:35JazzCaleb Martin blocks John Collins's two point running layup38
36
Q2 - 9:39JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound38
36
Q2 - 9:42HeatCaleb Martin misses two point pullup jump shot38
36
Q2 - 10:06JazzBrice Sensabaugh makes three point jump shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)38
36
Q2 - 10:21HeatCaleb Martin makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)35
36
Q2 - 10:27HeatOrlando Robinson defensive rebound35
33
Q2 - 10:30JazzJohn Collins misses two point turnaround jump shot35
33
Q2 - 10:43JazzKeyonte George defensive rebound35
33
Q2 - 10:46HeatCaleb Martin misses two point driving layup35
33
Q2 - 11:01JazzJohn Collins personal foul (Loose ball) (Orlando Robinson draws the foul)35
33
Q2 - 11:01HeatHeat offensive rebound35
33
Q2 - 11:03HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot35
33
Q2 - 11:13JazzKeyonte George makes regular free throw 2 of 235
33
Q2 - 11:13JazzKeyonte George misses regular free throw 1 of 234
33
Q2 - 11:13HeatCaleb Martin shooting foul (Keyonte George draws the foul)34
33
Q2 - 11:25HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes three point jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)34
33
Q2 - 11:41HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound34
30
Q2 - 11:44JazzBrice Sensabaugh misses two point turnaround jump shot34
30
Q2 - 12:00Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Luka Samanic, Talen Horton-Tucker, John Collins)34
30
Q1 - 0:00.0End of 1st Quarter.34
30
Q1 - 0:03.0HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound34
30
Q1 - 0:03.0JazzKeyonte George misses two point driving floating bank jump shot34
30
Q1 - 0:18.3HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point cutting layup (Jimmy Butler assists)34
30
Q1 - 0:24.1HeatOrlando Robinson defensive rebound34
28
Q1 - 0:26.5JazzTalen Horton-Tucker misses two point running layup34
28
Q1 - 0:31.9HeatJimmy Butler turnover (bad pass) (Lauri Markkanen steals)34
28
Q1 - 0:45.8JazzLauri Markkanen makes three point jump shot (Keyonte George assists)34
28
Q1 - 1:08HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 231
28
Q1 - 1:08Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Omer Yurtseven, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen)31
27
Q1 - 1:08HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 231
27
Q1 - 1:08JazzKris Dunn shooting foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)31
26
Q1 - 1:24JazzBrice Sensabaugh makes three point jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)31
26
Q1 - 1:32JazzKris Dunn offensive rebound28
26
Q1 - 1:33JazzLauri Markkanen misses two point tip layup28
26
Q1 - 1:33JazzLauri Markkanen offensive rebound28
26
Q1 - 1:36JazzLauri Markkanen misses two point driving layup28
26
Q1 - 1:50HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 2 of 228
26
Q1 - 1:50HeatJimmy Butler makes regular free throw 1 of 228
25
Q1 - 1:50JazzKris Dunn personal foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)28
24
Q1 - 1:58JazzBrice Sensabaugh personal foul (Haywood Highsmith draws the foul)28
24
Q1 - 2:07JazzOmer Yurtseven makes two point tip layup28
24
Q1 - 2:07JazzOmer Yurtseven offensive rebound26
24
Q1 - 2:08JazzLauri Markkanen misses two point cutting layup26
24
Q1 - 2:17HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. personal foul (Omer Yurtseven draws the foul)26
24
Q1 - 2:21Stoppage (Out of bounds)26
24
Q1 - 2:21JazzJazz offensive rebound26
24
Q1 - 2:21JazzTalen Horton-Tucker misses two point running reverse layup26
24
Q1 - 2:23JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound26
24
Q1 - 2:26HeatHaywood Highsmith misses three point jump shot26
24
Q1 - 2:36Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Orlando Robinson, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith)26
24
Q1 - 2:36JazzKris Dunn personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)26
24
Q1 - 2:44Jazz lineup change (Brice Sensabaugh, Omer Yurtseven, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn)26
24
Q1 - 2:44Heat 60 second timeout26
24
Q1 - 2:44JazzOmer Yurtseven makes two point floating jump shot26
24
Q1 - 2:45JazzOmer Yurtseven offensive rebound24
24
Q1 - 2:46JazzLauri Markkanen misses three point jump shot24
24
Q1 - 2:58JazzTalen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound24
24
Q1 - 3:01HeatDuncan Robinson misses two point driving floating bank jump shot24
24
Q1 - 3:16HeatCaleb Martin defensive rebound24
24
Q1 - 3:22JazzKeyonte George misses three point jump shot24
24
Q1 - 3:26Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith)24
24
Q1 - 3:26Stoppage (Out of bounds)24
24
Q1 - 3:26JazzJazz offensive rebound24
24
Q1 - 3:26JazzCaleb Martin blocks Keyonte George's three point running jump shot24
24
Q1 - 3:29HeatDuncan Robinson turnover (bad pass) (Lauri Markkanen steals)24
24
Q1 - 3:42Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Omer Yurtseven, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn)24
24
Q1 - 3:42Lauri Markkanen kicked ball violation24
24
Q1 - 3:51JazzKeyonte George makes three point jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)24
24
Q1 - 4:14HeatBam Adebayo makes two point cutting dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)21
24
Q1 - 4:31JazzCollin Sexton makes regular free throw 2 of 221
22
Q1 - 4:31Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin)20
22
Q1 - 4:31JazzCollin Sexton makes regular free throw 1 of 220
22
Q1 - 4:31HeatNikola Jovic shooting foul (Collin Sexton draws the foul)19
22
Q1 - 4:31HeatJaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (bad pass) (Kris Dunn steals)19
22
Q1 - 4:36JazzCollin Sexton makes two point driving finger roll layup19
22
Q1 - 4:46HeatBam Adebayo makes two point driving hook shot17
22
Q1 - 5:05JazzOmer Yurtseven makes regular free throw 2 of 217
20
Q1 - 5:05JazzOmer Yurtseven misses regular free throw 1 of 216
20
Q1 - 5:05HeatNikola Jovic shooting foul (Omer Yurtseven draws the foul)16
20
Q1 - 5:20Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo)16
20
Q1 - 5:20Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Omer Yurtseven, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn)16
20
Q1 - 5:20Heat 60 second timeout16
20
Q1 - 5:20HeatJimmy Butler turnover (offensive foul)16
20
Q1 - 5:20HeatJimmy Butler offensive foul (Lauri Markkanen draws the foul)16
20
Q1 - 5:24HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound16
20
Q1 - 5:28JazzLauri Markkanen misses three point jump shot16
20
Q1 - 5:40HeatJimmy Butler makes two point running layup (Terry Rozier assists)16
20
Q1 - 5:44HeatBam Adebayo defensive rebound16
18
Q1 - 5:47JazzCollin Sexton misses two point driving layup16
18
Q1 - 5:52JazzCollin Sexton defensive rebound16
18
Q1 - 5:55HeatNikola Jovic misses three point jump shot16
18
Q1 - 6:09JazzTaylor Hendricks makes two point driving layup (Collin Sexton assists)16
18
Q1 - 6:33HeatNikola Jovic makes three point jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)14
18
Q1 - 6:44JazzLauri Markkanen makes three point jump shot (John Collins assists)14
15
Q1 - 6:56HeatTerry Rozier makes two point stepback jump shot11
15
Q1 - 7:09JazzJohn Collins makes two point putback layup11
13
Q1 - 7:11JazzJohn Collins offensive rebound9
13
Q1 - 7:15JazzTaylor Hendricks misses three point jump shot9
13
Q1 - 7:18JazzKeyonte George defensive rebound9
13
Q1 - 7:22HeatBam Adebayo misses two point cutting layup9
13
Q1 - 7:32HeatJimmy Butler defensive rebound9
13
Q1 - 7:35JazzCollin Sexton misses three point stepback jump shot9
13
Q1 - 7:52HeatDuncan Robinson makes two point driving finger roll layup (Jimmy Butler assists)9
13
Q1 - 8:03JazzKeyonte George makes two point driving finger roll layup9
11
Q1 - 8:25HeatDuncan Robinson makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)7
11
Q1 - 8:35HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound7
8
Q1 - 8:35JazzJohn Collins misses three point jump shot7
8
Q1 - 8:47HeatBam Adebayo makes two point floating jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)7
8
Q1 - 8:59HeatDuncan Robinson defensive rebound7
6
Q1 - 9:01JazzLauri Markkanen misses three point jump shot7
6
Q1 - 9:18HeatNikola Jovic makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)7
6
Q1 - 9:35JazzKeyonte George makes three point pullup jump shot (John Collins assists)7
3
Q1 - 9:58HeatJimmy Butler makes three point stepback jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)4
3
Q1 - 10:21JazzJohn Collins makes two point cutting dunk (Collin Sexton assists)4
0
Q1 - 10:29JazzJohn Collins defensive rebound2
0
Q1 - 10:30HeatLauri Markkanen blocks Bam Adebayo's two point putback layup2
0
Q1 - 10:31HeatBam Adebayo offensive rebound2
0
Q1 - 10:32HeatTaylor Hendricks blocks Bam Adebayo's two point cutting dunk2
0
Q1 - 10:48JazzCollin Sexton makes two point fadeaway jump shot (John Collins assists)2
0
Q1 - 11:02Stoppage (Out of bounds)0
0
Q1 - 11:02JazzJazz defensive rebound0
0
Q1 - 11:04HeatTerry Rozier misses two point jump shot0
0
Q1 - 11:08HeatNikola Jovic defensive rebound0
0
Q1 - 11:12JazzJimmy Butler blocks John Collins's two point driving hook shot0
0
Q1 - 11:29JazzTaylor Hendricks defensive rebound0
0
Q1 - 11:32HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point jump shot0
0
Q1 - 11:34HeatTerry Rozier offensive rebound0
0
Q1 - 11:37HeatDuncan Robinson misses three point pullup jump shot0
0
Q1 - 12:00John Collins vs. Bam Adebayo (Jimmy Butler gains possession)0
0
Q1 - 12:00Heat lineup change (Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo)0
0
Q1 - 12:00Jazz lineup change (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins)0
0
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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

UTA
1.18 58.8%
MIA
1.24 61.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
UTA
19
38
50%
MIA
25
37
68%
Midrange
UTA
9
14
64%
MIA
8
17
47%
3PT | Effective 3PT
UTA
14
21.0
35
40%
60%
MIA
13
19.5
34
38%
57%
Free Throws
UTA
22
26
85%
MIA
21
25
84%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
UTA logo Jazz
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
K. George3165%15.5 / 24
L. Markkanen2560%12.5 / 21
J. Collins1864%9.0 / 14
C. Sexton1860%9.0 / 15
T. Hendricks857%4.0 / 7
T. Horton-Tucker739%3.5 / 9
O. Yurtseven788%3.5 / 4
B. Sensabaugh675%3.0 / 4
K. Dunn0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
J. Butler3780%18.5 / 23
B. Adebayo2368%11.5 / 17
C. Martin1882%9.0 / 11
T. Rozier1464%7.0 / 11
D. Robinson1246%6.0 / 13
J. Jaquez1255%6.0 / 11
N. Jović867%4.0 / 6
H. Highsmith220%1.0 / 5
O. Robinson0-0.0 / 2
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

UTA
85
+16
-10
101
MIA
91
+11
-6
102
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA
1.18 58.8%
MIA
1.24 61.8%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
114.7
113.5
UTA 126.3
MIA 129.9 +3.6
Pace
100.2
96.7
UTA 90.4
MIA 103.5 +13.1
Avg. Poss. Time
14.6
14.8
UTA 15.9
MIA 13.9 +2.0
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
53.9%
53.8%
UTA 56.3%
MIA 59.7% +3.4%
TO %
14.9%
12.2%
UTA 10.1%
MIA 5.7% +4.4%
ORB %
28.1%
21.8%
UTA 31.6% +10.5%
MIA 21.1%
FTrt
25.1
25.7
UTA 29.9 +1.5
MIA 28.4
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
64.8%
64.8%
UTA 57.1%
MIA 71.7% +14.6%
STL %
6.5%
7.8%
UTA 3.2%
MIA 6.2% +3.0%
BLK %
10.3%
6.9%
UTA 9.3%
MIA 11.5% +2.2%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
56.5%
56.2%
UTA 58.8%
MIA 61.8% +3.0%
Rim FG%
64.4%
61.2%
UTA 50.0%
MIA 67.6% +17.6%
Mid FG%
41.2%
44.2%
UTA 64.3% +17.2%
MIA 47.1%
3P %
35.4%
37.0%
UTA 40.0% +1.8%
MIA 38.2%
FT %
83.0%
81.8%
UTA 84.6% +0.6%
MIA 84.0%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
33.8%
30.4%
UTA 43.7% +1.6%
MIA 42.0%
Mid Att. %
25.6%
30.2%
UTA 16.1% +3.2%
MIA 19.3%
3P Att. %
40.6%
39.4%
UTA 40.2% +1.6%
MIA 38.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Game TotalsUTAMIA
Possessions9597
Possession Minutes25.222.5
Points120126
Rebounds4234
Assists2433
Steals36
Blocks56
Turnovers (Team)10 (1)6 (0)
Fouls1920
Off. Rebounds (Team)12 (4)8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)30 (4)26 (4)
Field Goals42-8746-88
At-the-Rim FG19-3825-37
Midrange FG9-148-17
2-Point FG28-5233-54
3-Point FG14-3513-34
Free Throws22-2621-25
Fast Break Pts714
2nd Chance Pts269
Points in Paint5062
Pts off Turnovers313
Bench Points2032
Biggest Lead119

BOXSCORE

PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
#3 · SG · 6'4" 185 · 20
43.1
31
65%
4
4
0
0
5
0
0
4
1-2
50%
6-9
67%
6-14
43%
#23 · SF · 7'1" 240 · 27
41.0
25
60%
4
6
2
1
1
4
2
2
11-12
92%
1-6
17%
4-9
44%
#20 · C · 6'9" 226 · 26
33.2
18
64%
6
3
0
1
1
3
2
4
1-2
50%
7-10
70%
1-3
33%
#2 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 25
31.5
18
60%
1
5
0
0
0
0
0
1
4-4
100%
7-12
58%
0-1
0%
#0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 20
28.8
8
57%
13
1
0
2
1
3
4
9
0-0
-
4-5
80%
0-2
0%
#5 · SG · 6'4" 235 · 23
19.8
7
39%
8
3
0
1
0
4
1
7
4-4
100%
0-5
0%
1-2
50%
#77 · C · 7'0" 275 · 26
14.8
7
88%
5
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
1-2
50%
3-4
75%
0-0
-
#8 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 20
12.5
6
75%
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
0-0
-
0-1
0%
2-3
67%
#11 · PG · 6'3" 205 · 30
10.1
0
0%
1
2
1
0
0
4
1
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-1
0%
#19 · PF · 6'11" 227 · 24
5.2
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
-
0-0
-
#13 · PG · 6'3" 170 · 23
DNP – Coach's Decision
#25 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26
Inactive - G League - Two-Way
#10 · PG · 6'3" 181 · 25
Inactive - G League - Two-Way
#33 · SG · 6'7" 226 · 23
Inactive - G League - Two-Way
#24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 23
Inactive - Injury/Illness | Right Foot; Sprain
#00 · SG · 6'5" 194 · 32
Inactive - Injury/Illness | N/A; Illness
#22 · SF · 6'8" 198 · 31
Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
120
59%
42
24
3
5
10
19
12
30
22-26
85%
28-52
54%
14-35
40%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.