Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, March 7, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	13	Heat	41%	113	108	113.7	95	92.7
	9	Mavericks	59%	116	114	118.8	96	98.5

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

-10

DAL

+14

-9

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.16 58.1%

DAL

1.13 56.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

13 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	39.6	27	75%	6	11	1	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	5-8	63%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	37.7	14	54%	4	5	2	0	6	2	0	4	1-2	50%	5-10	50%	1-2	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	37.4	14	39%	9	5	3	0	1	1	1	8	4-8	50%	5-12	42%	0-2	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	30.1	19	95%	4	2	0	0	1	4	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	5-8	63%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	15.9	4	33%	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-3	0%

Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	32.7	13	65%	3	2	0	1	0	6	1	2	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	27.8	13	81%	6	2	1	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	3-4	75%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	10.6	2	33%	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	8.1	2	25%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Delon Wright #4 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Patty Mills #88 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Medial Tendinitis
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bruise
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Dislocation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	58%	37	30	7	2	10	20	2	35	11-17	65%	23-44	52%	17-38	45%

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13 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	39.6	27	75%	6	11	1	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	5-8	63%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	37.7	14	54%	4	5	2	0	6	2	0	4	1-2	50%	5-10	50%	1-2	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	37.4	14	39%	9	5	3	0	1	1	1	8	4-8	50%	5-12	42%	0-2	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	30.1	19	95%	4	2	0	0	1	4	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	5-8	63%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	15.9	4	33%	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-3	0%

Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	32.7	13	65%	3	2	0	1	0	6	1	2	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	27.8	13	81%	6	2	1	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	3-4	75%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	10.6	2	33%	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	8.1	2	25%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Delon Wright #4 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Patty Mills #88 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Medial Tendinitis
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bruise
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Dislocation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	58%	37	30	7	2	10	20	2	35	11-17	65%	23-44	52%	17-38	45%

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9 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 25	39.5	35	67%	11	11	1	0	4	2	0	11	4-4	100%	5-11	45%	7-13	54%
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 32	36.3	23	57%	4	4	1	1	2	1	0	4	2-2	100%	6-10	60%	3-9	33%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	29.1	10	38%	8	1	1	1	1	1	4	4	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	1-6	17%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 25	21.1	12	86%	7	0	1	1	0	3	2	5	2-4	50%	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Derrick Jones Jr. #55 · SF · 6'6" 210 · 27	11.8	1	17%	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%

Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 20	23.0	4	67%	2	1	0	0	0	4	2	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Maxi Kleber #42 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 32	22.2	3	50%	4	1	0	2	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 32	20.7	11	46%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	3-4	75%	1-5	20%	2-6	33%
Josh Green #8 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 23	19.0	2	33%	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 29	17.3	13	93%	4	5	0	0	1	2	0	4	5-5	100%	1-3	33%	2-2	100%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
A.J. Lawson #9 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Markieff Morris #88 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Greg Brown III #13 · PF · 6'8" 206 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Brandon Williams #00 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alex Fudge #3 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	56%	45	27	5	6	9	16	10	35	18-23	78%	24-46	52%	16-41	39%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DAL
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DAL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.16 58.1%

DAL

1.13 56.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

71%

DAL

55%

Midrange

MIA

35%

DAL

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

25.5

45%

67%

DAL

24.0

39%

59%

Free Throws

MIA

65%

DAL

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Rozier	27	75%	13.5 / 18
D. Robinson	19	95%	9.5 / 10
J. Butler	14	54%	7.0 / 13
B. Adebayo	14	39%	7.0 / 18
C. Martin	13	65%	6.5 / 10
J. Jaquez	13	81%	6.5 / 8
N. Jović	4	33%	2.0 / 6
T. Bryant	2	33%	1.0 / 3
H. Highsmith	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	35	67%	17.5 / 26
K. Irving	23	57%	11.5 / 20
D. Exum	13	93%	6.5 / 7
D. Gafford	12	86%	6.0 / 7
T. Hardaway	11	46%	5.5 / 12
P. Washington	10	38%	5.0 / 13
D. Lively	4	67%	2.0 / 3
M. Kleber	3	50%	1.5 / 3
J. Green	2	33%	1.0 / 3
D. Jones	1	17%	0.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.3 8 117.0	MIA 113.7 DAL 118.8 +5.1
Pace	29 97.0 7 100.6	MIA 92.7 DAL 98.5 +5.8
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 20 14.3	MIA 15.5 DAL 14.6 −0.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.8% 7 56.2%	MIA 59.1% +3.9% DAL 55.2%
TO %	9 12.2% 5 12.0%	MIA 11.8% DAL 9.3% −2.5%
ORB %	26 21.8% 24 22.2%	MIA 5.4% DAL 22.2% +16.8%
FTrt	8 25.7 13 25.1	MIA 20.7 DAL 26.4 +5.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 64.8% 26 59.6%	MIA 75.0% +7.5% DAL 67.5%
STL %	11 7.7% 27 6.8%	MIA 7.4% +2.2% DAL 5.2%
BLK %	30 7.7% 26 8.7%	MIA 4.3% DAL 13.6% +9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	17 56.2% 8 58.1%	MIA 58.1% +1.7% DAL 56.4%
Rim FG%	23 61.6% 3 68.0%	MIA 71.4% +16.9% DAL 54.5%
Mid FG%	13 44.3% 10 44.7%	MIA 34.8% DAL 50.0% +15.2%
3P %	12 37.0% 13 36.9%	MIA 44.7% +5.7% DAL 39.0%
FT %	5 81.8% 27 75.8%	MIA 64.7% DAL 78.3% +13.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 29.5% 30 29.3%	MIA 25.6% +0.3% DAL 25.3%
Mid Att. %	28 31.1% 13 26.6%	MIA 28.0% DAL 27.6% −0.5%
3P Att. %	14 39.4% 2 44.1%	MIA 46.3% DAL 47.1% +0.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	DAL
Possessions	95	96
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	108	114
Rebounds	37	45
Assists	30	27
Steals	7	5
Blocks	2	6
Turnovers (Team)	10 (2)	9 (1)
Fouls	20	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	2 (6)	10 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (1)	35 (2)
Field Goals	40-82	40-87
At-the-Rim FG	15-21	12-22
Midrange FG	8-23	12-24
2-Point FG	23-44	24-46
3-Point FG	17-38	16-41
Free Throws	11-17	18-23
Fast Break Pts	12	19
2nd Chance Pts	5	16
Points in Paint	40	38
Pts off Turnovers	10	15
Bench Points	30	33
Biggest Lead	15	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg