Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Nuggets	56%	111	100	112.4	89	85.8
	13	Heat	44%	109	88	96.7	91	94.6

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-9

MIA

+11

-8

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.12 56.2%

MIA

0.94 46.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	37.6	12	67%	14	6	1	0	4	1	3	11	2-3	67%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	33.5	25	74%	7	0	0	0	1	0	2	5	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	5-9	56%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	33.4	16	57%	8	4	0	0	1	4	2	6	3-6	50%	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	31.4	14	47%	2	5	1	0	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	2-8	25%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	24.7	9	50%	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-5	20%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	22.6	6	43%	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	20.1	7	117%	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	18.9	9	50%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-8	38%	1-1	100%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	12.9	2	20%	3	2	0	1	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	4.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	INACTIVE
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	56%	41	24	4	2	9	13	7	34	9-13	69%	29-49	59%	11-33	33%

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2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	37.6	12	67%	14	6	1	0	4	1	3	11	2-3	67%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	33.5	25	74%	7	0	0	0	1	0	2	5	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	5-9	56%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	33.4	16	57%	8	4	0	0	1	4	2	6	3-6	50%	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	31.4	14	47%	2	5	1	0	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	2-8	25%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	24.7	9	50%	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-5	20%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	22.6	6	43%	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	20.1	7	117%	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	18.9	9	50%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-8	38%	1-1	100%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	12.9	2	20%	3	2	0	1	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	4.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	INACTIVE
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	56%	41	24	4	2	9	13	7	34	9-13	69%	29-49	59%	11-33	33%

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13 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	35.9	15	44%	5	2	0	1	1	2	3	2	2-2	100%	5-14	36%	1-2	50%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	34.8	14	50%	4	4	1	0	2	1	1	3	2-2	100%	6-10	60%	0-3	0%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	34.4	17	50%	13	3	1	1	0	2	1	12	2-4	50%	6-14	43%	1-1	100%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	30.8	11	55%	6	3	1	0	1	2	0	6	0-0	-	4-4	100%	1-6	17%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	15.6	3	50%	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	28.2	8	50%	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	4-4	100%	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	25.4	9	56%	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Patty Mills #88 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	13.9	2	17%	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	13.7	9	75%	6	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	3-4	75%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	7.5	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Delon Wright #4 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Surgery
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Medial Tendinitis
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	88	47%	42	18	5	2	8	13	8	34	15-18	83%	29-59	49%	5-21	24%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.12 56.2%

MIA

0.94 46.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

70%

MIA

61%

Midrange

DEN

52%

MIA

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

16.5

33%

50%

MIA

7.5

24%

36%

Free Throws

DEN

69%

MIA

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Porter	25	74%	12.5 / 17
A. Gordon	16	57%	8.0 / 14
J. Murray	14	47%	7.0 / 15
N. Jokić	12	67%	6.0 / 9
K. Caldwell-Pope	9	50%	4.5 / 9
R. Jackson	9	50%	4.5 / 9
C. Braun	7	117%	3.5 / 3
P. Watson	6	43%	3.0 / 7
J. Holiday	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	17	50%	8.5 / 17
J. Butler	15	44%	7.5 / 17
T. Rozier	14	50%	7.0 / 14
D. Robinson	11	55%	5.5 / 10
C. Martin	9	56%	4.5 / 8
T. Bryant	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. Jaquez	8	50%	4.0 / 8
N. Jović	3	50%	1.5 / 3
P. Mills	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 21 113.3	DEN 112.4 +15.7 MIA 96.7
Pace	26 97.4 29 97.0	DEN 85.8 MIA 94.6 +8.8
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 10 14.8	DEN 16.8 MIA 15.2 −1.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 20 53.8%	DEN 55.5% +9.9% MIA 45.6%
TO %	7 12.1% 9 12.2%	DEN 10.2% MIA 9.3% −0.9%
ORB %	6 25.5% 26 21.8%	DEN 17.1% MIA 19.0% +1.9%
FTrt	24 22.4 8 25.7	DEN 15.9 MIA 22.5 +6.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 11 64.8%	DEN 60.0% +7.1% MIA 52.9%
STL %	20 7.3% 11 7.7%	DEN 4.5% MIA 5.5% +1.0%
BLK %	25 8.7% 30 7.7%	DEN 3.4% MIA 4.1% +0.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 17 56.2%	DEN 56.2% +9.4% MIA 46.8%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 23 61.6%	DEN 70.0% +9.1% MIA 60.9%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 13 44.3%	DEN 51.7% +10.0% MIA 41.7%
3P %	10 37.4% 12 37.0%	DEN 33.3% +9.5% MIA 23.8%
FT %	25 76.2% 5 81.8%	DEN 69.2% MIA 83.3% +14.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 29 29.5%	DEN 24.4% MIA 28.7% +4.4%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 28 31.1%	DEN 35.4% −9.6% MIA 45.0%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 14 39.4%	DEN 40.2% +14.0% MIA 26.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	MIA
Possessions	89	91
Possession Minutes	24.9	23.1
Points	100	88
Rebounds	41	42
Assists	24	18
Steals	4	5
Blocks	2	2
Turnovers (Team)	9 (1)	8 (1)
Fouls	13	13
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (2)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	34 (1)
Field Goals	40-82	34-80
At-the-Rim FG	14-20	14-23
Midrange FG	15-29	15-36
2-Point FG	29-49	29-59
3-Point FG	11-33	5-21
Free Throws	9-13	15-18
Fast Break Pts	9	11
2nd Chance Pts	10	10
Points in Paint	42	52
Pts off Turnovers	15	10
Bench Points	24	28
Biggest Lead	14	4

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg