Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 15, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Nuggets	72%	117	117	119.4	98	95.9
	24	Spurs	28%	109	106	108.2	98	100.2

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-12

SAS

+14

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.6%

SAS

1.07 53.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	34.0	15	44%	10	8	4	0	3	4	2	8	2-2	100%	5-14	36%	1-2	50%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	30.9	31	74%	7	5	0	2	3	1	1	6	4-4	100%	12-16	75%	1-3	33%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	26.8	4	40%	0	3	3	0	2	3	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	25.1	7	88%	3	7	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	23.0	13	72%	7	1	1	0	0	1	0	7	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	2-5	40%

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	24.3	13	81%	4	4	3	0	1	1	1	3	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	22.9	10	45%	3	2	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-1	0%	5-8	63%	0-3	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	21.2	13	72%	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-6	50%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	16.4	4	100%	4	2	0	3	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	14.0	7	44%	1	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	INACTIVE
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	62%	40	37	13	4	12	20	7	33	9-12	75%	39-64	61%	10-25	40%

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2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	34.0	15	44%	10	8	4	0	3	4	2	8	2-2	100%	5-14	36%	1-2	50%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	30.9	31	74%	7	5	0	2	3	1	1	6	4-4	100%	12-16	75%	1-3	33%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	26.8	4	40%	0	3	3	0	2	3	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 28	25.1	7	88%	3	7	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	23.0	13	72%	7	1	1	0	0	1	0	7	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	2-5	40%

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	24.3	13	81%	4	4	3	0	1	1	1	3	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	22.9	10	45%	3	2	0	0	1	4	1	2	0-1	0%	5-8	63%	0-3	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	21.2	13	72%	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	3-6	50%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	16.4	4	100%	4	2	0	3	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	14.0	7	44%	1	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	INACTIVE
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	62%	40	37	13	4	12	20	7	33	9-12	75%	39-64	61%	10-25	40%

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24 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	39.0	17	61%	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	2	2-3	67%	3-7	43%	3-6	50%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 20	33.2	17	53%	9	2	2	3	4	5	4	5	8-9	89%	3-7	43%	1-5	20%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 24	32.9	8	50%	6	9	1	0	3	0	0	6	3-4	75%	1-4	25%	1-2	50%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 21	28.4	19	53%	6	4	1	0	3	1	4	2	2-3	67%	7-13	54%	1-3	33%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 23	26.0	10	63%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	3-6	50%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	26.3	9	64%	7	2	1	0	2	2	1	6	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-4	25%
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	15.1	5	42%	1	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	3-4	75%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	14.8	13	72%	6	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	1-1	100%
Dominick Barlow #26 · SF · 6'9" 224 · 21	12.7	6	100%	6	1	0	0	1	1	2	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	11.7	2	20%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
RaiQuan Gray #41 · PF · 6'7" 269 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Devonte' Graham #4 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamaree Bouyea #15 · PG · 6'2" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Cedi Osman #16 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Acl; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	54%	44	23	6	5	16	13	12	32	21-27	78%	26-52	50%	11-29	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.23 61.6%

SAS

1.07 53.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

77%

SAS

58%

Midrange

DEN

41%

SAS

37%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

15.0

40%

60%

SAS

16.5

38%

57%

Free Throws

DEN

75%

SAS

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	31	74%	15.5 / 21
J. Murray	15	44%	7.5 / 17
M. Porter	13	72%	6.5 / 9
C. Braun	13	81%	6.5 / 8
J. Holiday	13	72%	6.5 / 9
P. Watson	10	45%	5.0 / 11
A. Gordon	7	88%	3.5 / 4
R. Jackson	7	44%	3.5 / 8
K. Caldwell-Pope	4	40%	2.0 / 5
Z. Nnaji	4	100%	2.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Sochan	19	53%	9.5 / 18
D. Vassell	17	61%	8.5 / 14
V. Wembanyama	17	53%	8.5 / 16
Z. Collins	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Champagnie	10	63%	5.0 / 8
K. Johnson	9	64%	4.5 / 7
T. Jones	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Barlow	6	100%	3.0 / 3
B. Wesley	5	42%	2.5 / 6
M. Branham	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 26 109.4	DEN 119.4 +11.2 SAS 108.2
Pace	26 97.4 3 101.7	DEN 95.9 SAS 100.2 +4.2
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 25 14.1	DEN 15.0 SAS 14.4 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 23 53.2%	DEN 60.7% +8.2% SAS 52.5%
TO %	7 12.1% 26 14.3%	DEN 12.1% −3.4% SAS 15.5%
ORB %	6 25.5% 23 22.9%	DEN 17.9% SAS 26.7% +8.8%
FTrt	24 22.4 28 22.0	DEN 13.5 SAS 33.3 +19.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 1 71.2%	DEN 75.5% +13.3% SAS 62.2%
STL %	20 7.3% 23 6.9%	DEN 13.3% +7.2% SAS 6.1%
BLK %	25 8.7% 10 9.7%	DEN 7.7% SAS 7.8% +0.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.62 and 2.62.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 25 55.1%	DEN 61.6% +8.1% SAS 53.5%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 16 64.1%	DEN 77.1% +19.5% SAS 57.6%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 24 40.5%	DEN 41.4% +4.6% SAS 36.8%
3P %	10 37.4% 28 34.7%	DEN 40.0% +2.1% SAS 37.9%
FT %	25 76.2% 14 78.2%	DEN 75.0% SAS 77.8% +2.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 13 34.2%	DEN 39.3% SAS 40.7% +1.4%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 9 25.7%	DEN 32.6% SAS 23.5% −9.1%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 12 40.1%	DEN 28.1% SAS 35.8% +7.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	SAS
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	24.5	23.5
Points	117	106
Rebounds	40	44
Assists	37	23
Steals	13	6
Blocks	4	5
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	20	13
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (2)	12 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (1)	32 (1)
Field Goals	49-89	37-81
At-the-Rim FG	27-35	19-33
Midrange FG	12-29	7-19
2-Point FG	39-64	26-52
3-Point FG	10-25	11-29
Free Throws	9-12	21-27
Fast Break Pts	18	15
2nd Chance Pts	14	16
Points in Paint	64	44
Pts off Turnovers	27	15
Bench Points	47	35
Biggest Lead	21	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg