Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, March 23, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	19	Nuggets	77%	110	114	116.3	98	93.4
	30	Blazers	23%	99	111	113.3	98	103.1

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+24

-13

109

POR

+19

-15

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.04 51.8%

POR

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

19 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	36.9	22	44%	12	5	0	3	1	0	8	4	6-8	75%	8-19	42%	0-2	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	35.1	12	46%	9	3	0	0	2	2	3	6	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	34.5	13	93%	3	1	2	2	2	3	0	3	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	3-5	60%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	28.9	23	68%	0	5	2	0	3	2	0	0	8-11	73%	6-8	75%	1-4	25%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	20.0	11	69%	8	3	1	1	2	3	2	6	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	0-0	-

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	35.9	17	50%	8	6	3	1	1	2	4	4	2-4	50%	6-12	50%	1-3	33%
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	19.1	11	50%	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	3	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-4	50%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	15.2	3	25%	5	1	0	2	0	2	2	3	1-1	100%	1-5	20%	0-1	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	14.3	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Tendinosis
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Pain/Left Hip Inflammation
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	52%	49	25	8	9	13	17	19	30	24-33	73%	33-67	49%	8-24	33%

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19 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	36.9	22	44%	12	5	0	3	1	0	8	4	6-8	75%	8-19	42%	0-2	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	35.1	12	46%	9	3	0	0	2	2	3	6	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	34.5	13	93%	3	1	2	2	2	3	0	3	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	3-5	60%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	28.9	23	68%	0	5	2	0	3	2	0	0	8-11	73%	6-8	75%	1-4	25%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	20.0	11	69%	8	3	1	1	2	3	2	6	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	0-0	-

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	35.9	17	50%	8	6	3	1	1	2	4	4	2-4	50%	6-12	50%	1-3	33%
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	19.1	11	50%	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	3	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-4	50%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	15.2	3	25%	5	1	0	2	0	2	2	3	1-1	100%	1-5	20%	0-1	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	14.3	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Tendinosis
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Pain/Left Hip Inflammation
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	52%	49	25	8	9	13	17	19	30	24-33	73%	33-67	49%	8-24	33%

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30 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	39.3	16	67%	7	6	1	1	1	2	4	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	2-4	50%
Kris Murray #8 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 24	39.2	11	42%	7	1	1	1	1	1	3	4	0-0	-	4-7	57%	1-6	17%
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 20	28.3	22	52%	4	6	2	0	4	5	1	3	2-2	100%	7-16	44%	2-4	50%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 28	26.3	24	80%	8	2	1	2	2	5	2	6	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	3-6	50%
Rayan Rupert #72 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 20	15.8	3	75%	1	5	0	0	2	1	0	1	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-

Dalano Banton #5 · PG · 6'8" 203 · 24	32.7	14	33%	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	3	3-4	75%	4-13	31%	1-6	17%
Jabari Walker #34 · SF · 6'7" 237 · 22	25.9	15	94%	9	0	1	0	1	1	1	8	2-2	100%	5-6	83%	1-1	100%
Ashton Hagans #19 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 25	21.4	2	25%	3	6	2	2	2	4	1	2	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Moses Brown #10 · C · 7'2" 258 · 24	11.1	4	50%	3	0	0	2	1	1	2	1	0-1	0%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 21	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Lower Abdominal; Surgery
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 27	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Impingement
Ibou Badji #41 · C · 6'10" 240 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Justin Minaya #24 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Ligament Tear
Deandre Ayton #2 · C · 7'0" 252 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Tendinitis
Anfernee Simons #1 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinitis
Malcolm Brogdon #11 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Tendinitis
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	54%	45	27	8	8	15	24	14	31	15-17	88%	33-65	51%	10-28	36%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.04 51.8%

POR

1.09 54.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

55%

POR

61%

Midrange

DEN

33%

POR

14%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

12.0

33%

50%

POR

15.0

36%

54%

Free Throws

DEN

73%

POR

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Jackson	23	68%	11.5 / 17
A. Gordon	22	44%	11.0 / 25
C. Braun	17	50%	8.5 / 17
K. Caldwell-Pope	13	93%	6.5 / 7
M. Porter	12	46%	6.0 / 13
D. Jordan	11	69%	5.5 / 8
C. Gillespie	11	50%	5.5 / 11
P. Watson	3	25%	1.5 / 6
J. Holiday	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Reath	24	80%	12.0 / 15
S. Henderson	22	52%	11.0 / 21
T. Camara	16	67%	8.0 / 12
J. Walker	15	94%	7.5 / 8
D. Banton	14	33%	7.0 / 21
K. Murray	11	42%	5.5 / 13
M. Brown	4	50%	2.0 / 4
R. Rupert	3	75%	1.5 / 2
A. Hagans	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 29 107.7	DEN 116.3 +3.1 POR 113.3
Pace	26 97.4 21 97.9	DEN 93.4 POR 103.1 +9.7
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 15 14.6	DEN 15.4 POR 14.0 −1.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 30 50.3%	DEN 49.5% POR 51.6% +2.1%
TO %	7 12.1% 29 14.6%	DEN 11.7% −2.0% POR 13.7%
ORB %	6 25.5% 3 27.5%	DEN 38.0% +6.2% POR 31.8%
FTrt	24 22.4 23 22.8	DEN 36.3 +18.0 POR 18.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 30 58.7%	DEN 61.0% POR 62.8% +1.8%
STL %	20 7.3% 12 7.7%	DEN 8.2% POR 8.2%
BLK %	25 8.7% 20 9.0%	DEN 13.8% +1.9% POR 11.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.28 and 2.28.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 30 52.6%	DEN 51.8% POR 54.4% +2.6%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 29 58.1%	DEN 55.1% POR 60.8% +5.7%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 30 38.7%	DEN 33.3% +19.0% POR 14.3%
3P %	10 37.4% 30 34.5%	DEN 33.3% POR 35.7% +2.4%
FT %	25 76.2% 9 79.1%	DEN 72.7% POR 88.2% +15.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 11 34.7%	DEN 53.8% POR 54.8% +1.0%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 23 28.3%	DEN 19.8% POR 15.1% −4.7%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 24 37.0%	DEN 26.4% POR 30.1% +3.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.24 and 2.24.

Game Totals	DEN	POR
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	25.2	22.8
Points	114	111
Rebounds	49	45
Assists	25	27
Steals	8	8
Blocks	9	8
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	15 (1)
Fouls	17	24
Off. Rebounds (Team)	19 (5)	14 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (3)	31 (1)
Field Goals	41-91	43-93
At-the-Rim FG	27-49	31-51
Midrange FG	6-18	2-14
2-Point FG	33-67	33-65
3-Point FG	8-24	10-28
Free Throws	24-33	15-17
Fast Break Pts	15	9
2nd Chance Pts	16	22
Points in Paint	60	64
Pts off Turnovers	16	19
Bench Points	33	35
Biggest Lead	15	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg