Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 29, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	27	Blazers	24%	103	82	80.4	102	98.9
	16	Heat	76%	113	142	137.9	103	106.3

Scoring Opportunities

POR

+14

-23

MIA

-8

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

POR

0.88 44.1%

MIA

1.38 68.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

27 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kris Murray #8 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 24	42.2	11	55%	5	4	0	0	4	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 20	41.1	20	50%	6	6	2	1	7	1	1	5	3-5	60%	7-13	54%	1-5	20%
Jabari Walker #34 · PF · 6'7" 237 · 22	34.5	4	29%	3	2	0	0	1	2	1	2	2-3	67%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Rayan Rupert #72 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 20	26.4	6	50%	4	3	1	0	3	5	2	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Deandre Ayton #2 · C · 7'0" 252 · 26	24.7	18	60%	8	1	1	0	1	1	1	7	0-0	-	9-14	64%	0-1	0%

Dalano Banton #5 · PG · 6'8" 203 · 24	30.2	12	32%	9	2	0	0	5	2	2	7	1-1	100%	4-12	33%	1-7	14%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 28	14.1	6	38%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-4	0%
Justin Minaya #24 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 25	10.6	2	50%	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Ibou Badji #41 · C · 6'10" 240 · 21	9.2	3	75%	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 27	7.1	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lower Abdominal; Surgery
Anfernee Simons #1 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinitis
Moses Brown #10 · C · 7'2" 258 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Ashton Hagans #22 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Ligament Tear
Malcolm Brogdon #11 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Tendinitis
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Rib; Contusion
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	82	44%	43	20	4	2	23	19	10	33	7-11	64%	30-57	53%	5-30	17%

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27 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kris Murray #8 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 24	42.2	11	55%	5	4	0	0	4	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 20	41.1	20	50%	6	6	2	1	7	1	1	5	3-5	60%	7-13	54%	1-5	20%
Jabari Walker #34 · PF · 6'7" 237 · 22	34.5	4	29%	3	2	0	0	1	2	1	2	2-3	67%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Rayan Rupert #72 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 20	26.4	6	50%	4	3	1	0	3	5	2	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Deandre Ayton #2 · C · 7'0" 252 · 26	24.7	18	60%	8	1	1	0	1	1	1	7	0-0	-	9-14	64%	0-1	0%

Dalano Banton #5 · PG · 6'8" 203 · 24	30.2	12	32%	9	2	0	0	5	2	2	7	1-1	100%	4-12	33%	1-7	14%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 28	14.1	6	38%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-4	0%
Justin Minaya #24 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 25	10.6	2	50%	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Ibou Badji #41 · C · 6'10" 240 · 21	9.2	3	75%	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 27	7.1	0	0%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lower Abdominal; Surgery
Anfernee Simons #1 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinitis
Moses Brown #10 · C · 7'2" 258 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Ashton Hagans #22 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Ligament Tear
Malcolm Brogdon #11 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Tendinitis
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Rib; Contusion
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	82	44%	43	20	4	2	23	19	10	33	7-11	64%	30-57	53%	5-30	17%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Patty Mills #88 · SG · 6'0" 185 · 36	27.5	17	85%	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	0	5-5	100%	3-3	100%	2-5	40%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	27.3	22	65%	3	6	1	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-7	29%	6-10	60%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	26.2	21	81%	12	9	2	1	4	3	0	12	1-3	33%	7-9	78%	2-3	67%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	24.8	8	80%	4	8	1	0	0	1	0	4	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	17.3	5	83%	2	3	3	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%

Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	27.7	20	100%	6	1	1	0	1	1	0	6	1-3	33%	2-3	67%	5-6	83%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	25.4	12	67%	3	5	1	0	0	3	0	3	0-0	-	6-8	75%	0-1	0%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	21.8	26	68%	12	1	2	2	0	0	6	6	3-4	75%	10-14	71%	1-3	33%
Delon Wright #4 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 32	20.6	5	36%	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-5	20%	1-2	50%
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	12.0	3	38%	0	3	0	1	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 29	9.4	3	75%	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Facet; Syndrome
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Surgery,
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Medial Tendinitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	142	69%	44	41	17	4	8	13	6	38	13-18	72%	33-53	62%	21-39	54%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	POR	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	POR	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

POR

0.88 44.1%

MIA

1.38 68.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

POR

68%

MIA

78%

Midrange

POR

45%

MIA

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

POR

7.5

17%

25%

MIA

31.5

54%

81%

Free Throws

POR

64%

MIA

72%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Henderson	20	50%	10.0 / 20
D. Ayton	18	60%	9.0 / 15
D. Banton	12	32%	6.0 / 19
K. Murray	11	55%	5.5 / 10
R. Rupert	6	50%	3.0 / 6
D. Reath	6	38%	3.0 / 8
J. Walker	4	29%	2.0 / 7
I. Badji	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Minaya	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Thybulle	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Bryant	26	68%	13.0 / 19
T. Rozier	22	65%	11.0 / 17
B. Adebayo	21	81%	10.5 / 13
H. Highsmith	20	100%	10.0 / 10
P. Mills	17	85%	8.5 / 10
J. Jaquez	12	67%	6.0 / 9
J. Butler	8	80%	4.0 / 5
N. Jović	5	83%	2.5 / 3
D. Wright	5	36%	2.5 / 7
J. Cain	3	38%	1.5 / 4
C. Martin	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	29 107.7 21 113.3	POR 80.4 MIA 137.9 +57.5
Pace	21 97.9 29 97.0	POR 98.9 MIA 106.3 +7.5
Avg. Poss. Time	15 14.6 10 14.8	POR 14.6 MIA 13.5 −1.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	30 50.3% 20 53.8%	POR 43.1% MIA 70.1% +27.0%
TO %	29 14.6% 9 12.2%	POR 20.7% MIA 8.3% −12.4%
ORB %	3 27.5% 26 21.8%	POR 20.8% +5.4% MIA 15.4%
FTrt	23 22.8 8 25.7	POR 12.6 MIA 19.6 +7.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	30 58.7% 11 64.8%	POR 57.1% MIA 75.9% +18.8%
STL %	12 7.7% 11 7.7%	POR 3.9% MIA 16.5% +12.6%
BLK %	20 9.0% 30 7.7%	POR 3.8% MIA 7.0% +3.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.28 and 2.28.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	30 52.6% 17 56.2%	POR 44.1% MIA 68.9% +24.8%
Rim FG%	29 58.1% 23 61.6%	POR 68.4% MIA 77.8% +9.4%
Mid FG%	30 38.7% 13 44.3%	POR 44.7% MIA 46.2% +1.5%
3P %	30 34.5% 12 37.0%	POR 16.7% MIA 53.8% +37.1%
FT %	9 79.1% 5 81.8%	POR 63.6% MIA 72.2% +8.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 34.7% 29 29.5%	POR 21.8% MIA 29.3% +7.5%
Mid Att. %	23 28.3% 28 31.1%	POR 43.7% MIA 28.3% −15.4%
3P Att. %	24 37.0% 14 39.4%	POR 34.5% MIA 42.4% +7.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.24 and 2.24.

Game Totals	POR	MIA
Possessions	102	103
Possession Minutes	24.8	23.2
Points	82	142
Rebounds	43	44
Assists	20	41
Steals	4	17
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	23 (1)	8 (1)
Fouls	19	13
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (4)	6 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (0)	38 (3)
Field Goals	35-87	54-92
At-the-Rim FG	13-19	21-27
Midrange FG	17-38	12-26
2-Point FG	30-57	33-53
3-Point FG	5-30	21-39
Free Throws	7-11	13-18
Fast Break Pts	7	32
2nd Chance Pts	14	6
Points in Paint	52	56
Pts off Turnovers	11	36
Bench Points	23	69
Biggest Lead	5	60

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg