Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, April 12, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Nuggets	69%	115	120	121.2	99	97.4
	22	Spurs	31%	108	121	121.0	100	101.7

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-7

102

SAS

+15

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.18 58.8%

SAS

1.25 62.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	38.5	22	85%	7	12	2	1	3	5	2	5	3-3	100%	8-11	73%	1-2	50%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	29.2	14	47%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	1-5	20%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	29.0	35	67%	5	4	1	0	1	1	0	5	2-2	100%	9-15	60%	5-11	45%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	28.9	13	108%	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	5-5	100%	1-1	100%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	28.7	5	42%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	22.8	11	69%	3	3	0	2	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	19.1	6	38%	7	0	1	1	1	2	2	5	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-1	0%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	19.0	6	33%	1	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	15.3	8	57%	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	9.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	INACTIVE
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	INACTIVE
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	59%	33	31	9	4	7	19	6	27	9-10	90%	36-61	59%	13-36	36%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

3 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 29	38.5	22	85%	7	12	2	1	3	5	2	5	3-3	100%	8-11	73%	1-2	50%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 26	29.2	14	47%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	1-5	20%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 27	29.0	35	67%	5	4	1	0	1	1	0	5	2-2	100%	9-15	60%	5-11	45%
Aaron Gordon #50 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	28.9	13	108%	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	5-5	100%	1-1	100%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 31	28.7	5	42%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 23	22.8	11	69%	3	3	0	2	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	19.1	6	38%	7	0	1	1	1	2	2	5	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-1	0%
Reggie Jackson #7 · PG · 6'3" 208 · 34	19.0	6	33%	1	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Justin Holiday #9 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 35	15.3	8	57%	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	9.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Collin Gillespie #21 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #4 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Braxton Key #11 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 24	INACTIVE
Jay Huff #30 · C · 7'1" 240 · 27	INACTIVE
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	59%	33	31	9	4	7	19	6	27	9-10	90%	36-61	59%	13-36	36%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

22 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 24	38.5	14	58%	6	10	0	0	3	1	0	6	1-3	33%	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 23	37.2	14	100%	5	2	0	0	1	0	1	4	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 20	36.8	34	59%	12	5	1	2	7	1	1	11	5-7	71%	7-15	47%	5-12	42%
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	30.4	21	66%	12	2	0	1	2	3	2	10	2-4	50%	5-9	56%	3-5	60%
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	19.1	2	50%	1	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-

Devonte' Graham #4 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 29	31.6	11	46%	4	5	0	0	2	0	2	2	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	2-7	29%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	21.4	15	75%	6	3	1	1	2	0	3	3	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	2-3	67%
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 20	16.6	8	80%	3	0	0	0	0	5	2	1	0-0	-	4-4	100%	0-1	0%
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 24	8.4	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
RaiQuan Gray #41 · PF · 6'7" 269 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamaree Bouyea #15 · PG · 6'2" 180 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	INACTIVE
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Acl; Tear
Cedi Osman #16 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Dominick Barlow #26 · SF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Impingement
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Sprain
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Third Metatarsal Head; Stress Reaction
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	121	62%	49	31	2	4	18	13	11	38	16-23	70%	30-52	58%	15-33	45%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.18 58.8%

SAS

1.25 62.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

72%

SAS

63%

Midrange

DEN

45%

SAS

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

19.5

36%

54%

SAS

22.5

45%

68%

Free Throws

DEN

90%

SAS

70%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	35	67%	17.5 / 26
N. Jokić	22	85%	11.0 / 13
M. Porter	14	47%	7.0 / 15
A. Gordon	13	108%	6.5 / 6
C. Braun	11	69%	5.5 / 8
J. Holiday	8	57%	4.0 / 7
P. Watson	6	38%	3.0 / 8
R. Jackson	6	33%	3.0 / 9
K. Caldwell-Pope	5	42%	2.5 / 6
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	34	59%	17.0 / 29
S. Mamukelashvili	21	66%	10.5 / 16
Z. Collins	15	75%	7.5 / 10
T. Jones	14	58%	7.0 / 12
J. Champagnie	14	100%	7.0 / 7
D. Graham	11	46%	5.5 / 12
S. Cissoko	8	80%	4.0 / 5
B. Wesley	2	50%	1.0 / 2
D. Duke	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	5 117.9 26 109.4	DEN 121.2 +0.2 SAS 121.0
Pace	26 97.4 3 101.7	DEN 97.4 SAS 101.7 +4.3
Avg. Poss. Time	4 15.0 25 14.1	DEN 14.8 SAS 14.2 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	8 56.2% 23 53.2%	DEN 57.2% SAS 61.8% +4.6%
TO %	7 12.1% 26 14.3%	DEN 8.2% −7.7% SAS 15.9%
ORB %	6 25.5% 23 22.9%	DEN 13.6% SAS 28.9% +15.3%
FTrt	24 22.4 28 22.0	DEN 10.3 SAS 27.1 +16.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 66.9% 1 71.2%	DEN 63.3% SAS 68.9% +5.6%
STL %	20 7.3% 23 6.9%	DEN 9.1% +7.1% SAS 2.0%
BLK %	25 8.7% 10 9.7%	DEN 7.7% +1.1% SAS 6.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.62 and 2.62.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	11 57.5% 25 55.1%	DEN 58.8% SAS 62.4% +3.6%
Rim FG%	17 63.6% 16 64.1%	DEN 71.9% +9.4% SAS 62.5%
Mid FG%	3 47.0% 24 40.5%	DEN 44.8% SAS 50.0% +5.2%
3P %	10 37.4% 28 34.7%	DEN 36.1% SAS 45.5% +9.4%
FT %	25 76.2% 14 78.2%	DEN 90.0% +20.4% SAS 69.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	4 36.0% 13 34.2%	DEN 33.0% SAS 37.6% +4.7%
Mid Att. %	25 28.8% 9 25.7%	DEN 29.9% SAS 23.5% −6.4%
3P Att. %	30 35.2% 12 40.1%	DEN 37.1% SAS 38.8% +1.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DEN	SAS
Possessions	99	100
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	120	121
Rebounds	33	49
Assists	31	31
Steals	9	2
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	7 (2)	18 (0)
Fouls	19	13
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (4)	11 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (2)	38 (1)
Field Goals	49-97	45-85
At-the-Rim FG	23-32	20-32
Midrange FG	13-29	10-20
2-Point FG	36-61	30-52
3-Point FG	13-36	15-33
Free Throws	9-10	16-23
Fast Break Pts	15	21
2nd Chance Pts	16	18
Points in Paint	62	56
Pts off Turnovers	19	13
Bench Points	31	36
Biggest Lead	23	3

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg