Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 4, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	27	Jazz	32%	111	136	129.5	105	102.5
	18	Heat	68%	118	100	97.1	103	105.5

Scoring Opportunities

UTA

+19

-14

110

MIA

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.24 61.8%

MIA

1.05 52.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

27 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Collin Sexton #2 · SG · 6'3" 190 · 26	30.6	17	43%	5	8	1	0	2	0	2	3	1-1	100%	5-12	42%	2-7	29%
John Collins #20 · PF · 6'9" 226 · 27	28.3	24	67%	9	3	1	3	1	3	5	4	3-4	75%	6-12	50%	3-4	75%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · SF · 7'1" 240 · 28	26.6	15	58%	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	3	1-1	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 21	26.2	11	55%	6	5	1	0	5	4	0	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 23	26.2	14	78%	16	0	0	0	1	2	7	9	2-4	50%	6-7	86%	0-0	-

Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 21	25.6	34	89%	7	2	2	0	3	4	1	6	3-3	100%	5-7	71%	7-11	64%
Isaiah Collier #13 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 20	24.4	7	70%	2	6	2	1	1	2	0	2	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 21	21.8	4	67%	3	2	1	0	1	4	0	3	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Johnny Juzang #33 · SG · 6'7" 226 · 24	20.9	8	80%	5	0	1	0	0	1	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Micah Potter #25 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	6.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Jordan Clarkson #00 · SG · 6'5" 194 · 33	2.8	2	50%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk #19 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Drew Eubanks #15 · C · 6'10" 245 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Patty Mills #8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · PF · 6'8" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #18 · NA · 6'3" 195 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Fibula; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	62%	57	31	11	4	14	21	16	41	13-16	81%	33-54	61%	19-46	41%

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27 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Collin Sexton #2 · SG · 6'3" 190 · 26	30.6	17	43%	5	8	1	0	2	0	2	3	1-1	100%	5-12	42%	2-7	29%
John Collins #20 · PF · 6'9" 226 · 27	28.3	24	67%	9	3	1	3	1	3	5	4	3-4	75%	6-12	50%	3-4	75%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · SF · 7'1" 240 · 28	26.6	15	58%	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	3	1-1	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 21	26.2	11	55%	6	5	1	0	5	4	0	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 23	26.2	14	78%	16	0	0	0	1	2	7	9	2-4	50%	6-7	86%	0-0	-

Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 21	25.6	34	89%	7	2	2	0	3	4	1	6	3-3	100%	5-7	71%	7-11	64%
Isaiah Collier #13 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 20	24.4	7	70%	2	6	2	1	1	2	0	2	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 21	21.8	4	67%	3	2	1	0	1	4	0	3	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Johnny Juzang #33 · SG · 6'7" 226 · 24	20.9	8	80%	5	0	1	0	0	1	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-4	50%
Micah Potter #25 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	6.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Jordan Clarkson #00 · SG · 6'5" 194 · 33	2.8	2	50%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk #19 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Drew Eubanks #15 · C · 6'10" 245 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Patty Mills #8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · PF · 6'8" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #18 · NA · 6'3" 195 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Fibula; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	62%	57	31	11	4	14	21	16	41	13-16	81%	33-54	61%	19-46	41%

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18 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	29.4	15	50%	4	6	1	0	3	1	0	4	6-6	100%	3-4	75%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	25.6	4	22%	8	2	1	1	3	1	1	7	4-6	67%	0-5	0%	0-1	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	23.5	17	61%	1	3	2	2	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	4-9	44%	3-5	60%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	18.4	8	44%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	4-4	100%	0-5	0%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	16.3	2	50%	3	0	1	1	1	3	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	34.1	13	65%	2	4	1	0	2	1	0	2	7-9	78%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	22.4	12	67%	4	1	2	0	2	0	0	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-3	67%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	21.5	16	67%	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	3-9	33%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	19.8	7	44%	4	1	1	1	1	2	1	3	1-4	25%	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	13.9	5	83%	0	3	0	1	2	1	0	0	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	9.8	1	50%	2	2	0	1	0	2	1	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 33	5.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Inflammation
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	NWT - Team Suspension
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	53%	32	25	9	7	15	14	5	27	21-30	70%	26-45	58%	9-35	26%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	UTA	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

UTA

1.24 61.8%

MIA

1.05 52.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

UTA

63%

MIA

64%

Midrange

UTA

59%

MIA

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

UTA

28.5

41%

62%

MIA

13.5

26%

39%

Free Throws

UTA

81%

MIA

70%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Sensabaugh	34	89%	17.0 / 19
J. Collins	24	67%	12.0 / 18
C. Sexton	17	43%	8.5 / 20
L. Markkanen	15	58%	7.5 / 13
W. Kessler	14	78%	7.0 / 9
K. George	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Juzang	8	80%	4.0 / 5
I. Collier	7	70%	3.5 / 5
K. Filipowski	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Clarkson	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Potter	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jović	17	61%	8.5 / 14
D. Robinson	16	67%	8.0 / 12
T. Herro	15	50%	7.5 / 15
J. Jaquez	13	65%	6.5 / 10
K. Ware	12	67%	6.0 / 9
T. Rozier	8	44%	4.0 / 9
K. Johnson	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. Christopher	5	83%	2.5 / 3
B. Adebayo	4	22%	2.0 / 9
H. Highsmith	2	50%	1.0 / 2
P. Larsson	1	50%	0.5 / 1
A. Burks	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	24 110.3 21 112.4	UTA 129.5 +32.4 MIA 97.1
Pace	7 100.8 27 97.2	UTA 102.5 MIA 105.5 +3.0
Avg. Poss. Time	13 14.7 9 14.9	UTA 14.1 MIA 13.6 −0.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 53.3% 19 54.4%	UTA 61.5% +12.1% MIA 49.4%
TO %	30 16.2% 8 12.8%	UTA 11.6% −2.3% MIA 13.9%
ORB %	6 26.9% 27 22.3%	UTA 37.2% +26.3% MIA 10.9%
FTrt	7 25.2 24 23.2	UTA 16.0 MIA 37.5 +21.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	18 63.3% 10 65.3%	UTA 59.6% MIA 71.4% +11.8%
STL %	30 6.6% 12 8.3%	UTA 10.5% +1.8% MIA 8.7%
BLK %	25 8.5% 30 7.6%	UTA 8.9% MIA 13.0% +4.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.5 and 2.5.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 55.4% 19 56.0%	UTA 61.8% +9.2% MIA 52.6%
Rim FG%	15 63.8% 22 62.5%	UTA 62.5% MIA 64.3% +1.8%
Mid FG%	17 43.1% 12 44.4%	UTA 59.1% +12.0% MIA 47.1%
3P %	22 35.0% 11 36.7%	UTA 41.3% +15.6% MIA 25.7%
FT %	22 77.4% 8 79.1%	UTA 81.3% +11.3% MIA 70.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	27 28.8% 25 29.6%	UTA 32.0% MIA 35.0% +3.0%
Mid Att. %	15 26.2% 20 27.5%	UTA 22.0% MIA 21.3% −0.8%
3P Att. %	7 44.9% 12 42.9%	UTA 46.0% +2.3% MIA 43.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	UTA	MIA
Possessions	105	103
Possession Minutes	24.6	23.4
Points	136	100
Rebounds	57	32
Assists	31	25
Steals	11	9
Blocks	4	7
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	15 (0)
Fouls	21	14
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (3)	5 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (1)	27 (3)
Field Goals	52-100	35-80
At-the-Rim FG	20-32	18-28
Midrange FG	13-22	8-17
2-Point FG	33-54	26-45
3-Point FG	19-46	9-35
Free Throws	13-16	21-30
Fast Break Pts	9	20
2nd Chance Pts	21	6
Points in Paint	56	52
Pts off Turnovers	21	12
Bench Points	55	54
Biggest Lead	43	8

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg