Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 4, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Nuggets	51%	118	122	113.0	108	99.1
	15	Spurs	49%	117	111	101.8	109	97.5

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

101

+18

-7

119

SAS

+18

-12

115

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.03 51.3%

SAS

0.97 48.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	46.3	28	70%	10	2	0	0	1	1	2	8	6-7	86%	5-8	63%	4-9	44%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	43.3	46	64%	9	10	2	2	2	3	4	5	5-6	83%	16-27	59%	3-8	38%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	37.8	13	38%	6	6	5	1	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	5-14	36%	1-3	33%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	36.3	9	41%	10	6	3	1	1	3	4	6	0-0	-	3-7	43%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	27.1	8	50%	2	3	1	1	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-1	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	33.9	8	44%	8	3	0	2	1	0	1	7	4-6	67%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	25.9	5	25%	5	2	0	0	0	2	0	5	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	1-5	20%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	9.7	3	30%	6	0	0	0	1	2	3	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	3.8	2	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	1.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Strain
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	122	51%	58	32	11	7	7	17	14	44	18-23	78%	37-75	49%	10-33	30%

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9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	46.3	28	70%	10	2	0	0	1	1	2	8	6-7	86%	5-8	63%	4-9	44%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	43.3	46	64%	9	10	2	2	2	3	4	5	5-6	83%	16-27	59%	3-8	38%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	37.8	13	38%	6	6	5	1	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	5-14	36%	1-3	33%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	36.3	9	41%	10	6	3	1	1	3	4	6	0-0	-	3-7	43%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	27.1	8	50%	2	3	1	1	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-1	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	33.9	8	44%	8	3	0	2	1	0	1	7	4-6	67%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	25.9	5	25%	5	2	0	0	0	2	0	5	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	1-5	20%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	9.7	3	30%	6	0	0	0	1	2	3	3	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	3.8	2	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	1.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Strain
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	122	51%	58	32	11	7	7	17	14	44	18-23	78%	37-75	49%	10-33	30%

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15 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	39.0	20	50%	23	3	1	4	4	4	0	23	4-4	100%	5-7	71%	2-12	17%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	38.5	19	45%	8	3	1	0	4	0	4	4	2-2	100%	7-14	50%	1-6	17%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	32.5	22	73%	1	3	0	1	0	4	0	1	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	4-8	50%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	31.3	2	11%	0	8	0	1	2	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-6	17%	0-3	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 22	25.8	5	63%	8	0	1	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%

Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	27.2	10	50%	8	1	0	1	1	2	4	4	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	1-5	20%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	22.7	10	100%	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	4-5	80%	0-2	0%	2-3	67%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	18.2	9	75%	1	6	0	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 20	15.8	10	50%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	1-4	25%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	10.4	4	25%	4	0	0	0	0	3	1	3	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-3	0%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	3.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	111	48%	58	28	3	7	12	20	13	45	16-18	89%	28-56	50%	13-48	27%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.03 51.3%

SAS

0.97 48.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

63%

SAS

61%

Midrange

DEN

35%

SAS

28%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

15.0

30%

45%

SAS

19.5

27%

41%

Free Throws

DEN

78%

SAS

89%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	46	64%	23.0 / 36
M. Porter	28	70%	14.0 / 20
J. Murray	13	38%	6.5 / 17
R. Westbrook	9	41%	4.5 / 11
C. Braun	8	50%	4.0 / 8
P. Watson	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Strawther	5	25%	2.5 / 10
D. Jordan	3	30%	1.5 / 5
J. Pickett	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
H. Barnes	22	73%	11.0 / 15
V. Wembanyama	20	50%	10.0 / 20
D. Vassell	19	45%	9.5 / 21
K. Johnson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Champagnie	10	100%	5.0 / 5
S. Castle	10	50%	5.0 / 10
T. Jones	9	75%	4.5 / 6
J. Sochan	5	63%	2.5 / 4
Z. Collins	4	25%	2.0 / 8
C. Paul	2	11%	1.0 / 9
C. Bassey	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 19 113.5	DEN 113.0 +11.1 SAS 101.8
Pace	8 100.6 13 100.1	DEN 99.1 +1.6 SAS 97.5
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 20 14.3	DEN 14.5 −0.2 SAS 14.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 18 54.4%	DEN 48.1% +2.4% SAS 45.7%
TO %	15 13.3% 11 13.2%	DEN 5.6% −5.5% SAS 11.1%
ORB %	7 26.7% 20 24.3%	DEN 23.7% +0.9% SAS 22.8%
FTrt	5 25.9 22 23.4	DEN 21.3 +4.0 SAS 17.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 3 68.5%	DEN 68.1% SAS 68.3% +0.2%
STL %	19 7.9% 14 8.2%	DEN 10.2% +7.4% SAS 2.8%
BLK %	21 9.0% 5 10.5%	DEN 12.5% +3.2% SAS 9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 18 56.3%	DEN 51.3% +3.0% SAS 48.3%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 14 63.9%	DEN 63.2% +2.7% SAS 60.5%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 20 41.8%	DEN 35.1% +7.3% SAS 27.8%
3P %	5 37.6% 20 35.7%	DEN 30.3% +3.2% SAS 27.1%
FT %	23 77.0% 21 77.4%	DEN 78.3% SAS 88.9% +10.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 8 33.7%	DEN 35.2% SAS 36.5% +1.4%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 4 22.2%	DEN 34.3% SAS 17.3% −17.0%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 8 44.1%	DEN 30.6% SAS 46.2% +15.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	SAS
Possessions	108	109
Possession Minutes	26.2	26.8
Points	122	111
Rebounds	58	58
Assists	32	28
Steals	11	3
Blocks	7	7
Turnovers (Team)	7 (0)	12 (2)
Fouls	17	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (4)	13 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	44 (2)	45 (0)
Field Goals	47-108	41-104
At-the-Rim FG	24-38	23-38
Midrange FG	13-37	5-18
2-Point FG	37-75	28-56
3-Point FG	10-33	13-48
Free Throws	18-23	16-18
Fast Break Pts	15	9
2nd Chance Pts	14	11
Points in Paint	62	50
Pts off Turnovers	25	5
Bench Points	18	43
Biggest Lead	11	12

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg