Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Spurs	42%	112	105	106.1	99	100.8
	8	Bucks	58%	115	121	121.0	100	98.3

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+14

-9

104

MIL

+15

-10

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.01 50.5%

MIL

1.15 57.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	33.4	10	50%	10	1	2	3	3	4	4	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-6	33%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	32.0	11	32%	9	2	1	0	2	0	0	9	0-0	-	1-8	13%	3-9	33%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	29.3	18	90%	5	7	1	1	0	2	2	3	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	5-6	83%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	25.4	14	64%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	2-7	29%
Stephon Castle #5 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 20	24.8	5	19%	0	5	0	0	1	1	0	0	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	0-5	0%

Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	26.7	9	41%	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-9	33%
Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	25.3	24	63%	11	1	0	0	0	0	5	6	8-9	89%	5-10	50%	2-5	40%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	16.4	3	75%	2	5	1	0	0	1	0	2	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	12.8	4	67%	2	0	1	1	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	5.6	7	58%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	2.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	2.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	2.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Low Back; Tightness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	51%	46	24	8	5	9	14	12	34	17-20	85%	17-43	40%	18-52	35%

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14 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	33.4	10	50%	10	1	2	3	3	4	4	6	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-6	33%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	32.0	11	32%	9	2	1	0	2	0	0	9	0-0	-	1-8	13%	3-9	33%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	29.3	18	90%	5	7	1	1	0	2	2	3	1-1	100%	1-4	25%	5-6	83%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	25.4	14	64%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	4-4	100%	2-2	100%	2-7	29%
Stephon Castle #5 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 20	24.8	5	19%	0	5	0	0	1	1	0	0	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	0-5	0%

Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	26.7	9	41%	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-9	33%
Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	25.3	24	63%	11	1	0	0	0	0	5	6	8-9	89%	5-10	50%	2-5	40%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	16.4	3	75%	2	5	1	0	0	1	0	2	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	12.8	4	67%	2	0	1	1	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	5.6	7	58%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2-3	67%	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	2.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	2.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	2.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Low Back; Tightness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	51%	46	24	8	5	9	14	12	34	17-20	85%	17-43	40%	18-52	35%

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8 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 30	35.7	25	52%	16	8	0	1	4	1	3	13	3-7	43%	11-20	55%	0-1	0%
Brook Lopez #11 · C · 7'1" 282 · 37	35.4	22	65%	7	1	1	2	0	3	2	5	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	5-11	45%
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 34	35.3	26	81%	5	8	0	0	2	1	0	5	6-6	100%	4-6	67%	4-7	57%
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 31	24.4	3	50%	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 23	11.4	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-

AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 25	24.8	14	78%	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	4-7	57%
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 26	21.6	14	140%	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	4-4	100%
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 33	20.8	8	44%	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	5	3-4	75%	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 30	19.3	5	19%	11	2	1	1	1	2	2	9	1-2	50%	2-9	22%	0-3	0%
Ryan Rollins #13 · PG · 6'3" 180 · 23	2.8	2	50%	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
MarJon Beauchamp #3 · SF · 6'7" 199 · 24	2.8	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Liam Robbins #15 · C · 7'0" 250 · 25	2.8	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 26	2.8	0	0%	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Pat Connaughton #24 · SG · 6'5" 209 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Delon Wright #55 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
AJ Johnson #77 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Chris Livingston #7 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	121	58%	57	26	7	4	10	16	10	47	14-20	70%	25-50	50%	19-42	45%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.01 50.5%

MIL

1.15 57.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

50%

MIL

52%

Midrange

SAS

30%

MIL

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

27.0

35%

52%

MIL

28.5

45%

68%

Free Throws

SAS

85%

MIL

70%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	24	63%	12.0 / 19
C. Paul	18	90%	9.0 / 10
H. Barnes	14	64%	7.0 / 11
D. Vassell	11	32%	5.5 / 17
V. Wembanyama	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Champagnie	9	41%	4.5 / 11
S. Mamukelashvili	7	58%	3.5 / 6
S. Castle	5	19%	2.5 / 13
C. Bassey	4	67%	2.0 / 3
T. Jones	3	75%	1.5 / 2
Z. Collins	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Lillard	26	81%	13.0 / 16
G. Antetokounmpo	25	52%	12.5 / 24
B. Lopez	22	65%	11.0 / 17
A. Green	14	78%	7.0 / 9
G. Trent	14	140%	7.0 / 5
K. Middleton	8	44%	4.0 / 9
B. Portis	5	19%	2.5 / 13
T. Prince	3	50%	1.5 / 3
R. Rollins	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Beauchamp	2	50%	1.0 / 2
A. Jackson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	19 113.5 10 115.2	SAS 106.1 MIL 121.0 +14.9
Pace	13 100.1 14 99.9	SAS 100.8 +2.5 MIL 98.3
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.3 14 14.6	SAS 14.3 −0.4 MIL 14.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.4% 3 56.8%	SAS 46.3% MIL 58.2% +11.9%
TO %	11 13.2% 7 12.7%	SAS 8.0% −1.8% MIL 9.8%
ORB %	20 24.3% 30 19.3%	SAS 20.3% MIL 22.7% +2.4%
FTrt	22 23.4 3 26.8	SAS 21.1 MIL 21.7 +0.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	3 68.5% 23 60.7%	SAS 68.6% +9.5% MIL 59.1%
STL %	14 8.2% 27 7.3%	SAS 8.1% +1.1% MIL 7.0%
BLK %	5 10.5% 20 9.1%	SAS 10.0% +0.7% MIL 9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.32 and 2.32.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.3% 3 58.6%	SAS 50.5% MIL 57.6% +7.1%
Rim FG%	14 63.9% 5 66.9%	SAS 50.0% MIL 51.7% +1.7%
Mid FG%	20 41.8% 13 44.1%	SAS 30.4% MIL 47.6% +17.2%
3P %	20 35.7% 1 38.7%	SAS 34.6% MIL 45.2% +10.6%
FT %	21 77.4% 28 75.0%	SAS 85.0% +15.0% MIL 70.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	8 33.7% 24 30.0%	SAS 21.1% MIL 31.5% +10.5%
Mid Att. %	4 22.2% 21 27.5%	SAS 24.2% MIL 22.8% −1.4%
3P Att. %	8 44.1% 15 42.4%	SAS 54.7% +9.1% MIL 45.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MIL
Possessions	99	100
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	105	121
Rebounds	46	57
Assists	24	26
Steals	8	7
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	9 (0)	10 (1)
Fouls	14	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (2)	10 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (1)	47 (1)
Field Goals	35-95	44-92
At-the-Rim FG	10-20	15-29
Midrange FG	7-23	10-21
2-Point FG	17-43	25-50
3-Point FG	18-52	19-42
Free Throws	17-20	14-20
Fast Break Pts	20	11
2nd Chance Pts	10	16
Points in Paint	30	42
Pts off Turnovers	11	5
Bench Points	47	45
Biggest Lead	4	26

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg