Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, January 9, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	19	Heat	60%	113	97	101.0	96	93.3
	27	Jazz	40%	109	92	95.8	96	98.9

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+18

-14

100

UTA

+13

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.97 48.5%

UTA

0.99 49.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

19 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	37.4	23	64%	7	5	1	1	1	1	0	7	5-5	100%	3-7	43%	4-9	44%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 24	36.2	20	77%	7	7	2	0	3	1	2	5	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	3-5	60%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	32.8	9	35%	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	28.7	15	50%	7	3	3	2	1	1	2	5	2-4	50%	5-11	45%	1-2	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	22.0	5	36%	2	2	0	1	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-6	17%

Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	27.3	11	37%	6	5	0	1	1	1	3	3	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-8	25%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	19.3	8	80%	7	1	1	2	2	2	4	3	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	18.2	0	0%	3	1	1	0	3	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-5	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 33	18.1	6	43%	7	1	1	0	2	1	1	6	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-7	29%
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	NWT - Team Suspension
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	NWT – Personal
Isaiah Stevens #1 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	49%	49	26	10	7	14	12	13	36	11-15	73%	22-41	54%	14-50	28%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

19 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	37.4	23	64%	7	5	1	1	1	1	0	7	5-5	100%	3-7	43%	4-9	44%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 24	36.2	20	77%	7	7	2	0	3	1	2	5	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	3-5	60%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	32.8	9	35%	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	28.7	15	50%	7	3	3	2	1	1	2	5	2-4	50%	5-11	45%	1-2	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	22.0	5	36%	2	2	0	1	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-6	17%

Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	27.3	11	37%	6	5	0	1	1	1	3	3	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	2-8	25%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	19.3	8	80%	7	1	1	2	2	2	4	3	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	18.2	0	0%	3	1	1	0	3	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-5	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 33	18.1	6	43%	7	1	1	0	2	1	1	6	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-7	29%
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	NWT - Team Suspension
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	NWT – Personal
Isaiah Stevens #1 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	49%	49	26	10	7	14	12	13	36	11-15	73%	22-41	54%	14-50	28%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

27 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Isaiah Collier #13 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 20	33.5	8	67%	3	9	0	0	3	3	1	2	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 28	30.0	23	46%	5	1	0	1	1	0	2	3	1-2	50%	2-9	22%	6-15	40%
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 23	30.0	9	75%	15	0	0	2	2	2	5	10	1-2	50%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Collin Sexton #2 · SG · 6'3" 190 · 26	28.7	23	57%	1	5	1	0	2	0	0	1	4-4	100%	8-15	53%	1-3	33%
Johnny Juzang #33 · SF · 6'7" 226 · 24	23.6	5	28%	6	0	1	0	1	3	1	5	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-5	20%

Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 20	23.5	5	63%	0	0	3	2	1	5	0	0	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 21	23.1	4	50%	11	1	2	1	2	1	1	10	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Patty Mills #8 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	18.0	9	41%	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	1	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	2-9	22%
Drew Eubanks #15 · C · 6'10" 245 · 28	18.0	6	60%	4	3	0	0	1	0	1	3	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Micah Potter #25 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	11.6	0	0%	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Svi Mykhailiuk #19 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keyonte George #3 · SG · 6'4" 185 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Heel; Inflammation
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · PF · 6'8" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Elijah Harkless #1 · NA · 6'3" 195 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Fibula; Fracture
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness
John Collins #20 · PF · 6'9" 226 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Injury management
Jordan Clarkson #00 · SG · 6'5" 194 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Plantar; Fasciitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	50%	49	20	9	7	16	15	11	38	15-17	88%	22-47	47%	11-36	31%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	UTA

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

SHOOTING

Live advanced shooting dashboard requires a premium subscription for some games.

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.97 48.5%

UTA

0.99 49.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

75%

UTA

70%

Midrange

MIA

45%

UTA

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

21.0

28%

42%

UTA

16.5

31%

46%

Free Throws

MIA

73%

UTA

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	23	64%	11.5 / 18
J. Jaquez	20	77%	10.0 / 13
B. Adebayo	15	50%	7.5 / 15
N. Jović	11	37%	5.5 / 15
T. Rozier	9	35%	4.5 / 13
K. Ware	8	80%	4.0 / 5
A. Burks	6	43%	3.0 / 7
H. Highsmith	5	36%	2.5 / 7
D. Robinson	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Markkanen	23	46%	11.5 / 25
C. Sexton	23	57%	11.5 / 20
W. Kessler	9	75%	4.5 / 6
P. Mills	9	41%	4.5 / 11
I. Collier	8	67%	4.0 / 6
D. Eubanks	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Juzang	5	28%	2.5 / 9
C. Williams	5	63%	2.5 / 4
K. Filipowski	4	50%	2.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 24 110.3	MIA 101.0 +5.2 UTA 95.8
Pace	27 97.2 7 100.8	MIA 93.3 UTA 98.9 +5.6
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 13 14.7	MIA 15.4 UTA 14.6 −0.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 21 53.3%	MIA 47.3% +0.9% UTA 46.4%
TO %	8 12.8% 30 16.2%	MIA 12.5% −3.3% UTA 15.8%
ORB %	27 22.3% 6 26.9%	MIA 25.5% +2.1% UTA 23.4%
FTrt	24 23.2 7 25.2	MIA 16.5 UTA 20.5 +4.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 18 63.3%	MIA 72.2% +11.6% UTA 60.6%
STL %	12 8.3% 30 6.6%	MIA 10.4% +1.0% UTA 9.4%
BLK %	30 7.6% 25 8.5%	MIA 14.9% UTA 17.1% +2.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.5 and 2.5.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 20 55.4%	MIA 48.5% UTA 49.5% +1.0%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 15 63.8%	MIA 75.0% +5.0% UTA 70.0%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 17 43.1%	MIA 44.8% +4.3% UTA 40.5%
3P %	11 36.7% 22 35.0%	MIA 28.0% UTA 30.6% +2.6%
FT %	8 79.1% 22 77.4%	MIA 73.3% UTA 88.2% +14.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 27 28.8%	MIA 13.2% +1.1% UTA 12.0%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 15 26.2%	MIA 31.9% −12.7% UTA 44.6%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 7 44.9%	MIA 54.9% +11.6% UTA 43.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	UTA
Possessions	96	96
Possession Minutes	24.7	23.3
Points	97	92
Rebounds	49	49
Assists	26	20
Steals	10	9
Blocks	7	7
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	16 (1)
Fouls	12	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (5)	11 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (2)	38 (1)
Field Goals	36-91	33-83
At-the-Rim FG	9-12	7-10
Midrange FG	13-29	15-37
2-Point FG	22-41	22-47
3-Point FG	14-50	11-36
Free Throws	11-15	15-17
Fast Break Pts	17	7
2nd Chance Pts	16	11
Points in Paint	34	42
Pts off Turnovers	15	18
Bench Points	25	24
Biggest Lead	11	10

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg