Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 12, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	13	Nuggets	54%	116	112	115.5	97	104.4
	21	Mavericks	46%	115	101	105.2	96	89.6

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+22

-13

106

DAL

+13

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 52.8%

DAL

1.04 52.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

13 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	38.6	19	56%	18	9	3	0	4	4	4	14	7-9	78%	6-11	55%	0-2	0%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	33.6	21	58%	10	7	1	2	4	3	2	8	1-3	33%	10-15	67%	0-2	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 28	32.0	17	45%	2	2	0	0	1	4	0	2	1-3	33%	5-12	42%	2-6	33%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	25.4	13	46%	4	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	1-8	13%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	24.2	8	44%	4	0	0	0	1	2	3	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-4	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	33.0	10	83%	6	1	1	1	2	0	0	6	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	25.5	5	28%	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-5	20%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	9.4	6	100%	5	0	0	1	0	0	2	3	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	53%	55	23	6	5	13	19	15	40	13-20	65%	39-62	63%	7-32	22%

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13 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	38.6	19	56%	18	9	3	0	4	4	4	14	7-9	78%	6-11	55%	0-2	0%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	33.6	21	58%	10	7	1	2	4	3	2	8	1-3	33%	10-15	67%	0-2	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 28	32.0	17	45%	2	2	0	0	1	4	0	2	1-3	33%	5-12	42%	2-6	33%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	25.4	13	46%	4	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	1-8	13%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	24.2	8	44%	4	0	0	0	1	2	3	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-4	0%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	33.0	10	83%	6	1	1	1	2	0	0	6	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	25.5	5	28%	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-5	20%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	9.4	6	100%	5	0	0	1	0	0	2	3	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	53%	55	23	6	5	13	19	15	40	13-20	65%	39-62	63%	7-32	22%

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21 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Spencer Dinwiddie #26 · PG · 6'5" 215 · 32	39.2	16	47%	4	10	1	0	2	3	1	3	8-10	80%	4-10	40%	0-3	0%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	37.4	8	36%	5	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	2-4	50%	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Klay Thompson #31 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 35	34.9	25	66%	6	2	1	1	1	0	0	6	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	6-13	46%
Naji Marshall #13 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 27	30.6	16	67%	6	2	3	0	1	2	0	6	0-0	-	5-7	71%	2-5	40%
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 21	26.7	14	78%	6	8	0	2	3	5	3	3	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	0-0	-

Maxi Kleber #42 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 33	19.5	6	60%	3	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Quentin Grimes #5 · SG · 6'5" 207 · 25	18.6	3	38%	4	0	0	0	4	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 23	15.6	5	31%	0	3	1	0	0	2	0	0	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	1-3	33%
Daniel Gafford #21 · PF · 6'10" 265 · 26	14.9	8	40%	3	0	0	1	0	3	1	2	4-6	67%	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #8 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	2.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Markieff Morris #88 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jazian Gortman #00 · PG · 6'2" 184 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kessler Edwards #20 · SF · 6'8" 203 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Surgery
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Kyrie Irving #11 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lumbar Back; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	52%	37	27	7	5	12	20	8	29	19-25	76%	23-51	45%	12-34	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	DAL
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	DAL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 52.8%

DAL

1.04 52.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

76%

DAL

58%

Midrange

DEN

44%

DAL

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

10.5

22%

33%

DAL

18.0

35%

53%

Free Throws

DEN

65%

DAL

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Westbrook	21	58%	10.5 / 18
N. Jokić	19	56%	9.5 / 17
J. Murray	17	45%	8.5 / 19
M. Porter	13	46%	6.5 / 14
A. Gordon	13	93%	6.5 / 7
P. Watson	10	83%	5.0 / 6
C. Braun	8	44%	4.0 / 9
D. Jordan	6	100%	3.0 / 3
J. Strawther	5	28%	2.5 / 9

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Thompson	25	66%	12.5 / 19
S. Dinwiddie	16	47%	8.0 / 17
N. Marshall	16	67%	8.0 / 12
D. Lively	14	78%	7.0 / 9
P. Washington	8	36%	4.0 / 11
D. Gafford	8	40%	4.0 / 10
M. Kleber	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Hardy	5	31%	2.5 / 8
Q. Grimes	3	38%	1.5 / 4
O. Prosper	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 18 113.6	DEN 115.5 +10.3 DAL 105.2
Pace	8 100.6 11 100.3	DEN 104.4 +14.7 DAL 89.6
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 16 14.4	DEN 13.8 −2.3 DAL 16.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 14 54.9%	DEN 52.7% +4.5% DAL 48.2%
TO %	15 13.3% 12 13.2%	DEN 12.0% DAL 11.1% −0.9%
ORB %	7 26.7% 23 23.4%	DEN 34.1% +17.4% DAL 16.7%
FTrt	5 25.9 4 26.3	DEN 21.3 DAL 29.4 +8.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 27 60.1%	DEN 50.0% DAL 77.1% +27.1%
STL %	19 7.9% 22 7.7%	DEN 6.2% DAL 7.3% +1.1%
BLK %	21 9.0% 10 9.7%	DEN 9.8% +1.7% DAL 8.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 14 56.9%	DEN 52.8% +0.7% DAL 52.1%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 8 66.0%	DEN 75.7% +17.4% DAL 58.3%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 15 43.7%	DEN 44.0% +10.7% DAL 33.3%
3P %	5 37.6% 15 36.4%	DEN 21.9% DAL 35.3% +13.4%
FT %	23 77.0% 24 77.0%	DEN 65.0% DAL 76.0% +11.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 16 31.4%	DEN 39.4% +11.1% DAL 28.2%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 27 29.6%	DEN 26.6% −5.2% DAL 31.8%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 24 38.9%	DEN 34.0% DAL 40.0% +6.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	DAL
Possessions	97	96
Possession Minutes	22.3	25.7
Points	112	101
Rebounds	55	37
Assists	23	27
Steals	6	7
Blocks	5	5
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	12 (0)
Fouls	19	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (7)	8 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (0)	29 (1)
Field Goals	46-94	35-85
At-the-Rim FG	28-37	14-24
Midrange FG	11-25	9-27
2-Point FG	39-62	23-51
3-Point FG	7-32	12-34
Free Throws	13-20	19-25
Fast Break Pts	24	16
2nd Chance Pts	27	8
Points in Paint	68	40
Pts off Turnovers	20	28
Bench Points	34	22
Biggest Lead	11	19

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg