Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Nuggets	48%	116	118	119.2	99	94.8
	11	Mavericks	52%	117	99	99.0	100	104.6

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+16

-18

DAL

+14

-12

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.22 60.8%

DAL

0.97 48.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 28	37.0	45	80%	2	6	2	0	5	0	0	2	4-4	100%	13-17	76%	5-9	56%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	29.3	6	50%	4	0	0	3	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	28.9	10	63%	14	10	2	0	1	3	2	12	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	26.3	9	38%	6	3	2	1	4	2	2	4	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	1-3	33%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	26.2	13	72%	6	2	1	0	1	0	1	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	3-4	75%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	27.0	9	56%	5	1	1	1	1	2	0	5	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	1-3	33%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	17.6	3	50%	3	3	0	0	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	17.6	8	36%	2	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	4-4	100%	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	15.6	8	67%	6	2	0	1	2	0	3	3	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	4.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	3.5	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	3.5	4	100%	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	3.4	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	61%	51	28	9	7	18	20	11	40	19-22	86%	30-54	56%	13-29	45%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 28	37.0	45	80%	2	6	2	0	5	0	0	2	4-4	100%	13-17	76%	5-9	56%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	29.3	6	50%	4	0	0	3	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	28.9	10	63%	14	10	2	0	1	3	2	12	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	26.3	9	38%	6	3	2	1	4	2	2	4	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	1-3	33%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	26.2	13	72%	6	2	1	0	1	0	1	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	3-4	75%

Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	27.0	9	56%	5	1	1	1	1	2	0	5	4-4	100%	1-3	33%	1-3	33%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	17.6	3	50%	3	3	0	0	1	4	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	17.6	8	36%	2	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	4-4	100%	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	15.6	8	67%	6	2	0	1	2	0	3	3	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	4.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	3.5	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	3.5	4	100%	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	3.4	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	61%	51	28	9	7	18	20	11	40	19-22	86%	30-54	56%	13-29	45%

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11 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kyrie Irving #11 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 33	30.3	11	28%	4	2	4	1	1	1	1	3	3-4	75%	4-15	27%	0-3	0%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	26.3	5	23%	8	4	2	1	1	2	3	5	1-2	50%	2-8	25%	0-2	0%
Naji Marshall #13 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 27	21.8	11	69%	2	4	0	0	1	1	0	2	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	0-2	0%
Klay Thompson #31 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 35	20.7	8	50%	3	0	0	1	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 21	3.9	4	67%	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-

Quentin Grimes #5 · SG · 6'5" 207 · 25	26.6	10	56%	0	5	3	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 23	20.3	5	25%	2	4	1	0	4	3	1	1	1-2	50%	2-6	33%	0-3	0%
Spencer Dinwiddie #26 · PG · 6'5" 215 · 32	20.1	8	100%	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	2	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Daniel Gafford #21 · PF · 6'10" 265 · 26	19.0	13	65%	4	1	0	1	1	3	1	3	3-4	75%	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Maxi Kleber #42 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 33	18.2	10	71%	1	3	0	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 33	14.3	1	50%	2	1	2	0	0	3	1	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #8 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	14.3	10	71%	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	1-4	25%	3-3	100%	1-3	33%
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	4.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Markieff Morris #88 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jazian Gortman #00 · PG · 6'2" 184 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kessler Edwards #20 · SF · 6'8" 203 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Surgery
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	99	49%	30	27	14	6	12	17	8	22	14-22	64%	29-58	50%	9-32	28%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	DAL
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	DAL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.22 60.8%

DAL

0.97 48.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

52%

DAL

59%

Midrange

DEN

59%

DAL

38%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

19.5

45%

67%

DAL

13.5

28%

42%

Free Throws

DEN

86%

DAL

64%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	45	80%	22.5 / 28
M. Porter	13	72%	6.5 / 9
N. Jokić	10	63%	5.0 / 8
R. Westbrook	9	38%	4.5 / 12
P. Watson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
A. Gordon	8	36%	4.0 / 11
D. Jordan	8	67%	4.0 / 6
C. Braun	6	50%	3.0 / 6
Z. Nnaji	4	100%	2.0 / 2
J. Strawther	3	50%	1.5 / 3
J. Pickett	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Gafford	13	65%	6.5 / 10
K. Irving	11	28%	5.5 / 20
N. Marshall	11	69%	5.5 / 8
Q. Grimes	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Kleber	10	71%	5.0 / 7
O. Prosper	10	71%	5.0 / 7
K. Thompson	8	50%	4.0 / 8
S. Dinwiddie	8	100%	4.0 / 4
P. Washington	5	23%	2.5 / 11
J. Hardy	5	25%	2.5 / 10
D. Lively	4	67%	2.0 / 3
B. Williams	3	150%	1.5 / 1
D. Powell	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 18 113.6	DEN 119.2 +20.2 DAL 99.0
Pace	8 100.6 11 100.3	DEN 94.8 DAL 104.6 +9.8
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 16 14.4	DEN 15.2 DAL 13.8 −1.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 14 54.9%	DEN 59.6% +12.4% DAL 47.2%
TO %	15 13.3% 12 13.2%	DEN 17.7% DAL 10.7% −7.0%
ORB %	7 26.7% 23 23.4%	DEN 33.3% +16.6% DAL 16.7%
FTrt	5 25.9 4 26.3	DEN 26.5 +2.1 DAL 24.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 27 60.1%	DEN 65.1% DAL 71.1% +6.0%
STL %	19 7.9% 22 7.7%	DEN 9.1% DAL 14.0% +4.9%
BLK %	21 9.0% 10 9.7%	DEN 12.1% +1.0% DAL 11.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 14 56.9%	DEN 60.8% +12.3% DAL 48.5%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 8 66.0%	DEN 51.9% DAL 58.8% +6.9%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 15 43.7%	DEN 59.3% +21.8% DAL 37.5%
3P %	5 37.6% 15 36.4%	DEN 44.8% +16.7% DAL 28.1%
FT %	23 77.0% 24 77.0%	DEN 86.4% +22.8% DAL 63.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 16 31.4%	DEN 32.5% DAL 37.8% +5.2%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 27 29.6%	DEN 32.5% DAL 26.7% −5.9%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 24 38.9%	DEN 34.9% DAL 35.6% +0.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	DAL
Possessions	99	100
Possession Minutes	25.1	22.9
Points	118	99
Rebounds	51	30
Assists	28	27
Steals	9	14
Blocks	7	6
Turnovers (Team)	18 (2)	12 (0)
Fouls	20	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (5)	8 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (1)	22 (3)
Field Goals	43-83	38-90
At-the-Rim FG	14-27	20-34
Midrange FG	16-27	9-24
2-Point FG	30-54	29-58
3-Point FG	13-29	9-32
Free Throws	19-22	14-22
Fast Break Pts	18	19
2nd Chance Pts	12	20
Points in Paint	42	54
Pts off Turnovers	19	25
Bench Points	35	60
Biggest Lead	31	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg