Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Rockets	65%	114	128	137.6	93	92.5
	21	Nuggets	35%	109	108	114.9	94	94.5

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+20

-8

105

DEN

+13

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.22 61.0%

DEN

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 31	35.1	16	62%	1	8	3	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-9	44%
Amen Thompson #1 · PF · 6'7" 200 · 22	34.7	11	50%	9	0	4	2	2	2	3	6	3-7	43%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 23	29.6	34	89%	1	5	0	1	1	2	1	0	8-8	100%	4-6	67%	6-10	60%
Dillon Brooks #9 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 29	26.2	6	60%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 22	25.6	20	45%	9	8	2	0	1	1	3	6	2-2	100%	9-20	45%	0-1	0%

Cam Whitmore #7 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	23.9	16	73%	9	1	1	1	1	1	2	7	0-0	-	5-7	71%	2-4	50%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 38	20.6	8	67%	2	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-5	40%
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 29	17.6	6	60%	4	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 28	7.5	0	0%	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 31	7.1	2	100%	3	1	0	1	1	0	2	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Reed Sheppard #15 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 21	6.3	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	5.8	9	113%	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Tari Eason #17 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Lower Leg; Injury Management
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Metacarpal; Fracture
Jock Landale #2 · C · 6'11" 255 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
N'Faly Dante #3 · C · 6'11" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jack McVeigh #58 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	61%	40	28	14	6	8	19	14	26	13-17	76%	32-56	57%	17-38	45%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

5 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 31	35.1	16	62%	1	8	3	0	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-9	44%
Amen Thompson #1 · PF · 6'7" 200 · 22	34.7	11	50%	9	0	4	2	2	2	3	6	3-7	43%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 23	29.6	34	89%	1	5	0	1	1	2	1	0	8-8	100%	4-6	67%	6-10	60%
Dillon Brooks #9 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 29	26.2	6	60%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 22	25.6	20	45%	9	8	2	0	1	1	3	6	2-2	100%	9-20	45%	0-1	0%

Cam Whitmore #7 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 21	23.9	16	73%	9	1	1	1	1	1	2	7	0-0	-	5-7	71%	2-4	50%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 38	20.6	8	67%	2	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-5	40%
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 29	17.6	6	60%	4	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 28	7.5	0	0%	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 31	7.1	2	100%	3	1	0	1	1	0	2	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Reed Sheppard #15 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 21	6.3	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	5.8	9	113%	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Tari Eason #17 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Lower Leg; Injury Management
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Metacarpal; Fracture
Jock Landale #2 · C · 6'11" 255 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
N'Faly Dante #3 · C · 6'11" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jack McVeigh #58 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	61%	40	28	14	6	8	19	14	26	13-17	76%	32-56	57%	17-38	45%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

21 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	34.8	22	100%	4	1	0	0	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	8-8	100%	2-3	67%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	29.6	22	73%	4	5	0	0	5	2	0	4	2-2	100%	4-9	44%	4-5	80%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	24.7	17	57%	4	2	1	0	5	3	3	1	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	3-5	60%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	23.7	8	67%	3	0	0	1	2	2	1	2	4-7	57%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 36	23.3	0	0%	8	0	1	3	1	2	1	7	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	24.7	10	50%	1	3	0	0	3	2	0	1	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	2-6	33%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	22.8	10	56%	3	0	0	3	1	0	0	3	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Dario Šarić #9 · PF · 6'10" 225 · 31	18.9	8	67%	4	5	0	0	0	1	1	3	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	18.4	2	33%	1	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	7.5	4	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	5.8	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	5.8	3	38%	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	INACTIVE
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Injury Management
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	61%	36	22	4	7	18	16	9	27	14-21	67%	26-46	57%	14-29	48%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.22 61.0%

DEN

1.21 60.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

65%

DEN

64%

Midrange

HOU

48%

DEN

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

25.5

45%

67%

DEN

21.0

48%

72%

Free Throws

HOU

76%

DEN

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Green	34	89%	17.0 / 19
A. Sengun	20	45%	10.0 / 22
F. VanVleet	16	62%	8.0 / 13
C. Whitmore	16	73%	8.0 / 11
A. Thompson	11	50%	5.5 / 11
N. Williams	9	113%	4.5 / 4
J. Green	8	67%	4.0 / 6
D. Brooks	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Tate	6	60%	3.0 / 5
S. Adams	2	100%	1.0 / 1
A. Holiday	0	-	0.0 / 1
R. Sheppard	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Braun	22	100%	11.0 / 11
J. Murray	22	73%	11.0 / 15
R. Westbrook	17	57%	8.5 / 15
J. Strawther	10	50%	5.0 / 10
P. Watson	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Porter	8	67%	4.0 / 6
D. Šarić	8	67%	4.0 / 6
H. Tyson	4	50%	2.0 / 4
T. Alexander	3	38%	1.5 / 4
J. Pickett	2	33%	1.0 / 3
Z. Nnaji	2	100%	1.0 / 1
D. Jordan	0	-	0.0 / 0

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 114.9 4 118.9	HOU 137.6 +22.7 DEN 114.9
Pace	18 99.0 8 100.6	HOU 92.5 DEN 94.5 +2.1
Avg. Poss. Time	12 14.8 22 14.2	HOU 15.6 DEN 15.2 −0.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 52.3% 2 57.3%	HOU 61.2% DEN 62.7% +1.5%
TO %	10 13.1% 15 13.3%	HOU 9.8% −9.4% DEN 19.2%
ORB %	1 31.7% 7 26.7%	HOU 34.1% +8.4% DEN 25.7%
FTrt	16 24.2 5 25.9	HOU 18.1 DEN 28.0 +9.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	30 54.9% 4 68.3%	HOU 57.1% +2.1% DEN 55.0%
STL %	9 8.4% 19 7.9%	HOU 15.1% +10.8% DEN 4.3%
BLK %	15 9.3% 21 9.0%	HOU 13.0% +0.5% DEN 12.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.58 and 2.58.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 53.9% 2 58.8%	HOU 61.0% +0.3% DEN 60.7%
Rim FG%	25 61.5% 7 66.2%	HOU 64.5% +0.2% DEN 64.3%
Mid FG%	24 40.4% 8 45.5%	HOU 48.0% +3.6% DEN 44.4%
3P %	21 35.3% 5 37.6%	HOU 44.7% DEN 48.3% +3.6%
FT %	30 73.8% 23 77.0%	HOU 76.5% +9.8% DEN 66.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	10 33.3% 1 38.3%	HOU 33.0% DEN 37.3% +4.4%
Mid Att. %	23 28.3% 13 26.1%	HOU 26.6% DEN 24.0% −2.6%
3P Att. %	27 38.4% 30 35.6%	HOU 40.4% +1.8% DEN 38.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.2 and 2.2.

Game Totals	HOU	DEN
Possessions	93	94
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	128	108
Rebounds	40	36
Assists	28	22
Steals	14	4
Blocks	6	7
Turnovers (Team)	8 (3)	18 (2)
Fouls	19	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (6)	9 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (1)	27 (0)
Field Goals	49-94	40-75
At-the-Rim FG	20-31	18-28
Midrange FG	12-25	8-18
2-Point FG	32-56	26-46
3-Point FG	17-38	14-29
Free Throws	13-17	14-21
Fast Break Pts	25	7
2nd Chance Pts	15	13
Points in Paint	56	46
Pts off Turnovers	34	8
Bench Points	41	39
Biggest Lead	24	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg