Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 19, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	17	Spurs	44%	110	107	107.0	100	102.2
	16	Heat	56%	112	128	128.0	100	97.9

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+15

-14

101

MIA

+13

-11

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.06 53.0%

MIA

1.25 62.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

17 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	34.6	23	55%	3	2	1	2	1	2	0	3	3-3	100%	4-10	40%	4-10	40%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	31.4	10	50%	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	4	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	30.1	21	50%	10	3	0	1	3	2	1	9	2-6	33%	5-10	50%	3-8	38%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	27.9	10	83%	4	9	0	1	0	0	0	4	1-1	100%	0-0	-	3-6	50%
Stephon Castle #5 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 20	27.2	11	61%	4	1	0	0	4	1	4	0	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	1-1	100%

Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	22.1	5	31%	3	2	0	0	1	0	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-6	17%
Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	18.0	8	44%	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-2	0%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	16.0	5	63%	2	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	9.4	2	50%	4	0	2	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	9.1	4	67%	1	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	7.1	2	100%	3	2	1	0	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	2.4	2	100%	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	2.4	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	INACTIVE
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Lumbar Spine; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	53%	44	28	4	5	14	9	13	31	10-16	63%	26-51	51%	15-40	38%

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17 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	34.6	23	55%	3	2	1	2	1	2	0	3	3-3	100%	4-10	40%	4-10	40%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	31.4	10	50%	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	4	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 21	30.1	21	50%	10	3	0	1	3	2	1	9	2-6	33%	5-10	50%	3-8	38%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	27.9	10	83%	4	9	0	1	0	0	0	4	1-1	100%	0-0	-	3-6	50%
Stephon Castle #5 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 20	27.2	11	61%	4	1	0	0	4	1	4	0	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	1-1	100%

Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	22.1	5	31%	3	2	0	0	1	0	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-6	17%
Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	18.0	8	44%	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-2	0%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	16.0	5	63%	2	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	9.4	2	50%	4	0	2	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	9.1	4	67%	1	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	7.1	2	100%	3	2	1	0	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	2.4	2	100%	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	2.4	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	INACTIVE
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Lumbar Spine; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	53%	44	28	4	5	14	9	13	31	10-16	63%	26-51	51%	15-40	38%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	33.2	18	69%	6	7	1	0	0	0	0	6	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	2-4	50%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	27.8	8	50%	3	7	0	2	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 31	27.8	21	88%	5	2	0	0	1	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	5-7	71%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	25.2	6	33%	11	5	1	1	3	2	3	8	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · PF · 6'5" 220 · 28	8.5	2	33%	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-

Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	33.7	25	60%	8	2	0	2	0	4	4	4	4-4	100%	9-14	64%	1-5	20%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	30.9	20	67%	4	5	1	0	2	0	0	4	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	4-5	80%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	23.9	14	88%	2	5	2	0	2	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	4-6	67%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	22.0	12	86%	6	1	3	1	1	2	2	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-2	100%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	2.4	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	2.4	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Inflammation
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	63%	49	35	8	6	11	12	12	37	10-10	100%	32-62	52%	18-33	55%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.06 53.0%

MIA

1.25 62.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

66%

MIA

58%

Midrange

SAS

32%

MIA

37%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

22.5

38%

56%

MIA

27.0

55%

82%

Free Throws

SAS

63%

MIA

100%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Vassell	23	55%	11.5 / 21
V. Wembanyama	21	50%	10.5 / 21
S. Castle	11	61%	5.5 / 9
H. Barnes	10	50%	5.0 / 10
C. Paul	10	83%	5.0 / 6
K. Johnson	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Champagnie	5	31%	2.5 / 8
T. Jones	5	63%	2.5 / 4
S. Mamukelashvili	4	67%	2.0 / 3
S. Cissoko	4	100%	2.0 / 2
C. Bassey	2	50%	1.0 / 2
Z. Collins	2	100%	1.0 / 1
B. Wesley	2	100%	1.0 / 1
M. Branham	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Ware	25	60%	12.5 / 21
D. Robinson	21	88%	10.5 / 12
T. Rozier	20	67%	10.0 / 15
T. Herro	18	69%	9.0 / 13
N. Jović	14	88%	7.0 / 8
J. Jaquez	12	86%	6.0 / 7
J. Butler	8	50%	4.0 / 8
B. Adebayo	6	33%	3.0 / 9
H. Highsmith	2	33%	1.0 / 3
P. Larsson	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Christopher	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	19 113.5 21 112.4	SAS 107.0 MIA 128.0 +21.0
Pace	13 100.1 27 97.2	SAS 102.2 +4.3 MIA 97.9
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.3 9 14.9	SAS 14.1 −0.6 MIA 14.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.4% 19 54.4%	SAS 53.3% MIA 62.1% +8.8%
TO %	11 13.2% 8 12.8%	SAS 13.3% MIA 10.0% −3.3%
ORB %	20 24.3% 27 22.3%	SAS 26.0% MIA 27.9% +1.9%
FTrt	22 23.4 24 23.2	SAS 17.6 +7.1 MIA 10.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	3 68.5% 10 65.3%	SAS 68.3% MIA 70.0% +1.7%
STL %	14 8.2% 12 8.3%	SAS 4.0% MIA 8.0% +4.0%
BLK %	5 10.5% 30 7.6%	SAS 8.1% MIA 11.8% +3.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	18 56.3% 19 56.0%	SAS 53.0% MIA 62.7% +9.7%
Rim FG%	14 63.9% 22 62.5%	SAS 65.5% +7.4% MIA 58.1%
Mid FG%	20 41.8% 12 44.4%	SAS 31.8% MIA 36.8% +5.0%
3P %	20 35.7% 11 36.7%	SAS 37.5% MIA 54.5% +17.0%
FT %	21 77.4% 8 79.1%	SAS 62.5% MIA 100.0% +37.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	8 33.7% 25 29.6%	SAS 31.9% MIA 45.3% +13.4%
Mid Att. %	4 22.2% 20 27.5%	SAS 24.2% MIA 20.0% −4.2%
3P Att. %	8 44.1% 12 42.9%	SAS 44.0% +9.2% MIA 34.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MIA
Possessions	100	100
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	107	128
Rebounds	44	49
Assists	28	35
Steals	4	8
Blocks	5	6
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	11 (0)
Fouls	9	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (2)	12 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (1)	37 (1)
Field Goals	41-91	50-95
At-the-Rim FG	19-29	25-43
Midrange FG	7-22	7-19
2-Point FG	26-51	32-62
3-Point FG	15-40	18-33
Free Throws	10-16	10-10
Fast Break Pts	21	18
2nd Chance Pts	11	8
Points in Paint	42	60
Pts off Turnovers	13	16
Bench Points	32	73
Biggest Lead	13	27

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg