Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, February 1, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	17	Heat	54%	112	105	107.1	98	95.9
	19	Spurs	46%	111	103	104.0	99	101.2

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+14

-13

SAS

+14

-10

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.05 52.5%

SAS

1.00 50.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.7	30	71%	12	9	2	3	3	1	3	9	2-2	100%	11-16	69%	2-5	40%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	36.3	11	32%	4	8	1	0	3	0	0	4	3-5	60%	4-8	50%	0-7	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	34.1	6	50%	12	2	0	2	0	2	4	8	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 31	27.1	8	57%	1	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	2-4	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	23.4	7	39%	3	1	0	0	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-6	17%

Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	32.7	19	63%	7	4	0	0	0	1	1	6	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	5-9	56%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	24.6	14	64%	7	4	3	0	2	3	0	7	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	22.9	10	56%	6	1	1	0	2	2	3	3	2-4	50%	4-5	80%	0-2	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	1.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	NWT - Injury/Illness \| R Heel Inflammation
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	Inactive - Team Suspension
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	53%	52	30	7	5	13	15	12	40	10-17	59%	28-47	60%	13-42	31%

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17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.7	30	71%	12	9	2	3	3	1	3	9	2-2	100%	11-16	69%	2-5	40%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	36.3	11	32%	4	8	1	0	3	0	0	4	3-5	60%	4-8	50%	0-7	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	34.1	6	50%	12	2	0	2	0	2	4	8	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 31	27.1	8	57%	1	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	2-4	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	23.4	7	39%	3	1	0	0	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-6	17%

Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	32.7	19	63%	7	4	0	0	0	1	1	6	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	5-9	56%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	24.6	14	64%	7	4	3	0	2	3	0	7	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	22.9	10	56%	6	1	1	0	2	2	3	3	2-4	50%	4-5	80%	0-2	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	1.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 31	NWT - Injury/Illness \| R Heel Inflammation
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 35	Inactive - Team Suspension
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	53%	52	30	7	5	13	15	12	40	10-17	59%	28-47	60%	13-42	31%

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19 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 24	35.5	18	41%	3	1	0	0	2	2	0	3	1-1	100%	7-12	58%	1-10	10%
Chris Paul #3 · PG · 6'0" 175 · 40	32.0	12	60%	4	7	3	0	1	2	0	4	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	27.7	12	67%	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	2-3	67%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Charles Bassey #28 · C · 6'10" 230 · 24	27.0	9	50%	15	1	0	1	1	1	7	8	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Stephon Castle #5 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 20	23.4	10	50%	6	6	2	0	2	6	0	6	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-4	50%

Keldon Johnson #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	25.9	19	50%	5	1	0	0	1	2	3	2	7-10	70%	3-9	33%	2-5	40%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	19.3	2	20%	5	3	1	0	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-0	-
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	17.4	6	60%	2	2	1	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Tre Jones #33 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	13.8	3	38%	2	4	1	0	1	0	0	2	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 26	9.8	10	83%	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1-1	100%	3-3	100%	1-3	33%
Zach Collins #23 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	8.2	2	50%	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
David Duke Jr. #7 · SG · 6'4" 204 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sidy Cissoko #25 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Malaki Branham #22 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Blake Wesley #14 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · PF · 7'4" 235 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| " "; Illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	50%	48	27	8	3	10	18	13	35	15-21	71%	26-55	47%	12-36	33%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.05 52.5%

SAS

1.00 50.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

58%

SAS

53%

Midrange

MIA

62%

SAS

38%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

19.5

31%

46%

SAS

18.0

33%

50%

Free Throws

MIA

59%

SAS

71%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	30	71%	15.0 / 21
T. Rozier	19	63%	9.5 / 15
N. Jović	14	64%	7.0 / 11
T. Herro	11	32%	5.5 / 17
J. Jaquez	10	56%	5.0 / 9
D. Robinson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
H. Highsmith	7	39%	3.5 / 9
K. Ware	6	50%	3.0 / 6
P. Larsson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	19	50%	9.5 / 19
D. Vassell	18	41%	9.0 / 22
C. Paul	12	60%	6.0 / 10
H. Barnes	12	67%	6.0 / 9
S. Castle	10	50%	5.0 / 10
S. Mamukelashvili	10	83%	5.0 / 6
C. Bassey	9	50%	4.5 / 9
J. Champagnie	6	60%	3.0 / 5
T. Jones	3	38%	1.5 / 4
J. Sochan	2	20%	1.0 / 5
Z. Collins	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 19 113.5	MIA 107.1 +3.1 SAS 104.0
Pace	27 97.2 13 100.1	MIA 95.9 SAS 101.2 +5.4
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 20 14.3	MIA 15.0 SAS 14.2 −0.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 18 54.4%	MIA 53.4% +5.0% SAS 48.4%
TO %	8 12.8% 11 13.2%	MIA 12.7% SAS 9.9% −2.8%
ORB %	27 22.3% 20 24.3%	MIA 25.5% +1.0% SAS 24.5%
FTrt	24 23.2 22 23.4	MIA 19.1 SAS 23.1 +4.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 3 68.5%	MIA 73.2% +2.1% SAS 71.1%
STL %	12 8.3% 14 8.2%	MIA 7.1% SAS 8.1% +1.0%
BLK %	30 7.6% 5 10.5%	MIA 9.1% +2.7% SAS 6.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 18 56.3%	MIA 52.5% +2.5% SAS 50.0%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 14 63.9%	MIA 57.7% +4.8% SAS 52.9%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 20 41.8%	MIA 61.9% +23.8% SAS 38.1%
3P %	11 36.7% 20 35.7%	MIA 31.0% SAS 33.3% +2.3%
FT %	8 79.1% 21 77.4%	MIA 58.8% SAS 71.4% +12.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 8 33.7%	MIA 29.2% SAS 37.4% +8.1%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 4 22.2%	MIA 23.6% SAS 23.1% −0.5%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 8 44.1%	MIA 47.2% +7.6% SAS 39.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	SAS
Possessions	98	99
Possession Minutes	24.5	23.5
Points	105	103
Rebounds	52	48
Assists	30	27
Steals	7	8
Blocks	5	3
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	10 (1)
Fouls	15	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (2)	13 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (1)	35 (0)
Field Goals	41-89	38-91
At-the-Rim FG	15-26	18-34
Midrange FG	13-21	8-21
2-Point FG	28-47	26-55
3-Point FG	13-42	12-36
Free Throws	10-17	15-21
Fast Break Pts	12	13
2nd Chance Pts	16	15
Points in Paint	40	46
Pts off Turnovers	14	8
Bench Points	43	42
Biggest Lead	11	4

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg