Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, February 13, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	21	Heat	54%	106	113	117.7	96	99.8
	26	Mavericks	46%	104	118	120.4	98	94.4

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+18

-13

101

DAL

+17

-13

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.12 55.9%

DAL

1.16 57.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

21 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 26	37.8	5	50%	0	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	1-1	100%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	37.4	40	61%	8	3	3	0	3	1	1	7	7-9	78%	12-16	75%	3-14	21%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	32.1	17	61%	9	1	1	1	2	2	5	4	1-2	50%	8-11	73%	0-3	0%
Kyle Anderson #20 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 31	27.1	15	58%	10	3	0	2	0	3	6	4	3-6	50%	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	22.6	6	43%	6	3	2	0	3	0	2	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-1	0%

Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	28.4	12	60%	7	4	1	0	1	1	2	5	4-7	57%	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	24.9	6	27%	1	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-4	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	20.0	9	64%	1	4	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	9.8	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	NWT - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	NWT - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	NWT – Personal
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	56%	42	23	9	4	13	14	16	26	17-26	65%	33-55	60%	10-36	28%

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21 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 26	37.8	5	50%	0	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	1-1	100%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	37.4	40	61%	8	3	3	0	3	1	1	7	7-9	78%	12-16	75%	3-14	21%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	32.1	17	61%	9	1	1	1	2	2	5	4	1-2	50%	8-11	73%	0-3	0%
Kyle Anderson #20 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 31	27.1	15	58%	10	3	0	2	0	3	6	4	3-6	50%	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	22.6	6	43%	6	3	2	0	3	0	2	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-1	0%

Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	28.4	12	60%	7	4	1	0	1	1	2	5	4-7	57%	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	24.9	6	27%	1	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-4	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	20.0	9	64%	1	4	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	9.8	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	NWT - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	NWT - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	NWT – Personal
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	56%	42	23	9	4	13	14	16	26	17-26	65%	33-55	60%	10-36	28%

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26 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kessler Edwards #20 · C · 6'8" 203 · 25	39.9	15	63%	9	3	0	0	0	1	4	5	0-0	-	3-8	38%	3-4	75%
Max Christie #00 · SF · 6'5" 190 · 22	38.7	19	50%	5	5	3	1	4	2	1	4	0-0	-	5-8	63%	3-11	27%
Spencer Dinwiddie #26 · PG · 6'5" 215 · 32	36.0	18	60%	3	6	0	0	4	3	0	3	5-5	100%	5-6	83%	1-7	14%
Danté Exum #0 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 30	24.1	27	96%	3	4	2	1	1	2	1	2	3-3	100%	9-11	82%	2-2	100%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #8 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 23	22.7	10	56%	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-1	0%

Naji Marshall #13 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 27	32.6	12	75%	9	4	1	0	1	2	4	5	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-3	67%
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 25	24.7	11	69%	1	3	0	0	3	5	0	1	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Jaden Hardy #1 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 23	18.6	2	10%	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	5	2-4	50%	0-4	0%	0-4	0%
Kylor Kelley #50 · C · 7'0" 215 · 27	2.7	4	100%	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 33	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Soreness
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 35	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Sprain
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Stress Fracture
Anthony Davis #3 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Strain
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	58%	40	28	7	2	13	17	11	29	13-16	81%	33-54	61%	13-36	36%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DAL
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DAL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.12 55.9%

DAL

1.16 57.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

55%

DAL

71%

Midrange

MIA

71%

DAL

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

15.0

28%

42%

DAL

19.5

36%

54%

Free Throws

MIA

65%

DAL

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	40	61%	20.0 / 33
K. Ware	17	61%	8.5 / 14
K. Anderson	15	58%	7.5 / 13
A. Burks	12	60%	6.0 / 10
D. Robinson	9	64%	4.5 / 7
J. Jaquez	6	43%	3.0 / 7
N. Jović	6	27%	3.0 / 11
D. Mitchell	5	50%	2.5 / 5
P. Larsson	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Exum	27	96%	13.5 / 14
M. Christie	19	50%	9.5 / 19
S. Dinwiddie	18	60%	9.0 / 15
K. Edwards	15	63%	7.5 / 12
N. Marshall	12	75%	6.0 / 8
B. Williams	11	69%	5.5 / 8
O. Prosper	10	56%	5.0 / 9
K. Kelley	4	100%	2.0 / 2
J. Hardy	2	10%	1.0 / 10

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 18 113.6	MIA 117.7 DAL 120.4 +2.7
Pace	27 97.2 11 100.3	MIA 99.8 +5.4 DAL 94.4
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 16 14.4	MIA 14.4 −0.8 DAL 15.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 14 54.9%	MIA 52.7% DAL 58.3% +5.6%
TO %	8 12.8% 12 13.2%	MIA 11.3% −1.3% DAL 12.6%
ORB %	27 22.3% 23 23.4%	MIA 35.6% +5.9% DAL 29.7%
FTrt	24 23.2 4 26.3	MIA 28.6 +10.8 DAL 17.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 27 60.1%	MIA 53.5% DAL 60.9% +7.4%
STL %	12 8.3% 22 7.7%	MIA 9.4% +2.3% DAL 7.1%
BLK %	30 7.6% 10 9.7%	MIA 7.4% +3.8% DAL 3.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 14 56.9%	MIA 55.9% DAL 57.8% +1.9%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 8 66.0%	MIA 55.3% DAL 70.6% +15.3%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 15 43.7%	MIA 70.6% +25.6% DAL 45.0%
3P %	11 36.7% 15 36.4%	MIA 27.8% DAL 36.1% +8.3%
FT %	8 79.1% 24 77.0%	MIA 65.4% DAL 81.3% +15.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 16 31.4%	MIA 41.8% +4.0% DAL 37.8%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 27 29.6%	MIA 18.7% −3.5% DAL 22.2%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 24 38.9%	MIA 39.6% DAL 40.0% +0.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	DAL
Possessions	96	98
Possession Minutes	23.1	24.9
Points	113	118
Rebounds	42	40
Assists	23	28
Steals	9	7
Blocks	4	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	13 (1)
Fouls	14	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (2)	11 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (2)	29 (4)
Field Goals	43-91	46-90
At-the-Rim FG	21-38	24-34
Midrange FG	12-17	9-20
2-Point FG	33-55	33-54
3-Point FG	10-36	13-36
Free Throws	17-26	13-16
Fast Break Pts	11	10
2nd Chance Pts	25	13
Points in Paint	62	62
Pts off Turnovers	15	15
Bench Points	30	29
Biggest Lead	7	8

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg