Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, February 28, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Pacers	54%	114	120	129.0	93	101.6
	16	Heat	46%	112	125	134.4	93	87.8

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+11

-10

MIA

+14

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.28 63.8%

MIA

1.34 67.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 25	37.4	9	64%	3	11	1	2	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 25	36.0	19	63%	2	10	4	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	5-10	50%	3-5	60%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.4	7	44%	6	2	0	1	0	1	2	4	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Myles Turner #33 · C · 6'11" 250 · 29	35.3	22	79%	3	3	2	0	1	0	0	3	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	5-9	56%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 31	32.5	36	78%	6	2	2	0	1	3	1	5	2-4	50%	5-10	50%	8-11	73%

Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 27	15.6	7	88%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	15.0	5	83%	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 33	13.2	7	44%	0	5	1	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-1	100%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	12.7	8	40%	5	1	0	0	0	3	4	1	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-3	0%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 21	7.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
James Johnson #16 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Enrique Freeman #8 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
RayJ Dennis #10 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Wrist; Sprain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	64%	30	35	10	3	10	11	9	21	5-8	63%	26-49	53%	21-39	54%

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8 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 25	37.4	9	64%	3	11	1	2	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 25	36.0	19	63%	2	10	4	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	5-10	50%	3-5	60%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.4	7	44%	6	2	0	1	0	1	2	4	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Myles Turner #33 · C · 6'11" 250 · 29	35.3	22	79%	3	3	2	0	1	0	0	3	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	5-9	56%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 31	32.5	36	78%	6	2	2	0	1	3	1	5	2-4	50%	5-10	50%	8-11	73%

Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 27	15.6	7	88%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	15.0	5	83%	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 33	13.2	7	44%	0	5	1	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-1	100%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	12.7	8	40%	5	1	0	0	0	3	4	1	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-3	0%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 21	7.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
James Johnson #16 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Enrique Freeman #8 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
RayJ Dennis #10 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Wrist; Sprain
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	64%	30	35	10	3	10	11	9	21	5-8	63%	26-49	53%	21-39	54%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 26	36.6	10	63%	3	8	1	1	3	2	2	1	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	2-2	100%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	33.9	29	54%	3	7	0	1	1	1	2	1	4-5	80%	8-15	53%	3-10	30%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	31.2	18	64%	7	7	2	0	0	1	2	5	0-0	-	6-10	60%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	28.3	8	80%	12	0	1	0	2	0	3	9	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	14.0	11	110%	4	1	1	0	2	0	2	2	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	1-1	100%

Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	29.2	9	75%	3	1	1	2	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-3	33%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	28.6	20	100%	2	5	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	4-4	100%	4-6	67%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	20.6	13	72%	3	1	0	0	3	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-5	60%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	11.3	4	40%	1	3	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 31	6.2	3	150%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	125	67%	39	34	7	4	14	11	12	27	12-13	92%	31-52	60%	17-32	53%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	IND	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.28 63.8%

MIA

1.34 67.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

56%

MIA

76%

Midrange

IND

50%

MIA

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

31.5

54%

81%

MIA

25.5

53%

80%

Free Throws

IND

63%

MIA

92%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	36	78%	18.0 / 23
M. Turner	22	79%	11.0 / 14
T. Haliburton	19	63%	9.5 / 15
A. Nembhard	9	64%	4.5 / 7
T. Bryant	8	40%	4.0 / 10
A. Nesmith	7	44%	3.5 / 8
O. Toppin	7	88%	3.5 / 4
T. McConnell	7	44%	3.5 / 8
B. Sheppard	5	83%	2.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	29	54%	14.5 / 27
D. Robinson	20	100%	10.0 / 10
B. Adebayo	18	64%	9.0 / 14
A. Burks	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Jaquez	11	110%	5.5 / 5
D. Mitchell	10	63%	5.0 / 8
H. Highsmith	9	75%	4.5 / 6
K. Ware	8	80%	4.0 / 5
T. Rozier	4	40%	2.0 / 5
K. Anderson	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	9 115.3 21 112.4	IND 129.0 MIA 134.4 +5.4
Pace	6 100.9 27 97.2	IND 101.6 +13.8 MIA 87.8
Avg. Poss. Time	24 14.0 9 14.9	IND 14.2 −2.2 MIA 16.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.2% 19 54.4%	IND 65.3% MIA 67.3% +2.0%
TO %	3 12.0% 8 12.8%	IND 9.9% −4.4% MIA 14.3%
ORB %	29 21.3% 27 22.3%	IND 25.0% MIA 36.4% +11.4%
FTrt	17 24.1 24 23.2	IND 9.1 MIA 15.5 +6.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	8 67.1% 10 65.3%	IND 74.5% +3.7% MIA 70.8%
STL %	10 8.3% 12 8.3%	IND 10.8% +3.3% MIA 7.5%
BLK %	8 10.2% 30 7.6%	IND 5.8% MIA 8.2% +2.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	7 57.6% 19 56.0%	IND 63.8% MIA 67.2% +3.4%
Rim FG%	6 66.7% 22 62.5%	IND 55.6% MIA 76.2% +20.6%
Mid FG%	6 45.8% 12 44.4%	IND 50.0% +1.6% MIA 48.4%
3P %	9 36.8% 11 36.7%	IND 53.8% +0.7% MIA 53.1%
FT %	9 78.9% 8 79.1%	IND 62.5% MIA 92.3% +29.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	17 31.4% 25 29.6%	IND 30.7% +5.7% MIA 25.0%
Mid Att. %	24 28.6% 20 27.5%	IND 25.0% −11.9% MIA 36.9%
3P Att. %	21 40.0% 12 42.9%	IND 44.3% +6.2% MIA 38.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	MIA
Possessions	93	93
Possession Minutes	22.0	25.4
Points	120	125
Rebounds	30	39
Assists	35	34
Steals	10	7
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	14 (1)
Fouls	11	11
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	12 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	21 (1)	27 (3)
Field Goals	47-88	48-84
At-the-Rim FG	15-27	16-21
Midrange FG	11-22	15-31
2-Point FG	26-49	31-52
3-Point FG	21-39	17-32
Free Throws	5-8	12-13
Fast Break Pts	17	10
2nd Chance Pts	6	18
Points in Paint	42	54
Pts off Turnovers	25	19
Bench Points	27	49
Biggest Lead	12	12

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg