Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 2, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	4	Nuggets	37%	116	103	107.3	96	101.5
	2	Celtics	63%	121	110	118.3	93	88.9

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+12

-11

BOS

+11

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 53.1%

BOS

1.22 61.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

4 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	46.8	24	52%	6	3	4	1	1	3	0	6	2-2	100%	8-14	57%	2-8	25%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	39.6	10	45%	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	5	2-4	50%	1-3	33%	2-6	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	39.5	26	62%	6	7	1	0	3	3	2	4	2-2	100%	9-13	69%	2-7	29%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	39.4	20	67%	14	9	2	0	2	2	3	11	0-0	-	7-12	58%	2-3	67%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	35.7	12	50%	3	6	2	1	3	3	1	2	0-1	0%	3-5	60%	2-8	25%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	14.3	4	40%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	8.6	1	25%	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	8.3	3	150%	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	7.7	3	150%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	53%	38	27	11	2	11	18	8	30	9-13	69%	29-51	57%	12-35	34%

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4 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	46.8	24	52%	6	3	4	1	1	3	0	6	2-2	100%	8-14	57%	2-8	25%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	39.6	10	45%	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	5	2-4	50%	1-3	33%	2-6	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	39.5	26	62%	6	7	1	0	3	3	2	4	2-2	100%	9-13	69%	2-7	29%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	39.4	20	67%	14	9	2	0	2	2	3	11	0-0	-	7-12	58%	2-3	67%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	35.7	12	50%	3	6	2	1	3	3	1	2	0-1	0%	3-5	60%	2-8	25%

Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	14.3	4	40%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	8.6	1	25%	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	8.3	3	150%	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	7.7	3	150%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery Rehabilitation
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	53%	38	27	11	2	11	18	8	30	9-13	69%	29-51	57%	12-35	34%

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2 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jayson Tatum #0 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 27	38.3	16	44%	11	7	0	0	6	5	0	11	7-8	88%	3-8	38%	1-7	14%
Jaylen Brown #7 · SG · 6'6" 223 · 28	36.6	22	58%	5	8	2	2	5	2	0	5	8-9	89%	4-11	36%	2-4	50%
Al Horford #42 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 39	35.0	19	68%	8	0	3	0	2	1	3	5	4-4	100%	6-9	67%	1-3	33%
Derrick White #9 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 31	33.3	17	65%	3	2	2	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	5-11	45%
Luke Kornet #40 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	30.8	8	57%	1	4	0	1	0	2	1	0	2-4	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-

Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 27	25.8	11	79%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-5	60%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 27	17.3	8	100%	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 26	16.7	8	80%	10	1	0	0	0	4	3	7	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Torrey Craig #12 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 34	6.3	1	17%	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Drew Peterson #13 · PF · 6'8" 205 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
JD Davison #20 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Anton Watson #28 · SF · 6'8" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Non-Covid
Jrue Holiday #4 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Mallet Finger
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	61%	45	26	7	4	14	18	10	35	22-27	81%	23-44	52%	14-34	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	BOS
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	BOS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.06 53.1%

BOS

1.22 61.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

63%

BOS

64%

Midrange

DEN

52%

BOS

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

34%

51%

BOS

21.0

41%

62%

Free Throws

DEN

69%

BOS

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	26	62%	13.0 / 21
C. Braun	24	52%	12.0 / 23
N. Jokić	20	67%	10.0 / 15
R. Westbrook	12	50%	6.0 / 12
M. Porter	10	45%	5.0 / 11
J. Strawther	4	40%	2.0 / 5
Z. Nnaji	3	150%	1.5 / 1
J. Pickett	3	150%	1.5 / 1
D. Jordan	1	25%	0.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Brown	22	58%	11.0 / 19
A. Horford	19	68%	9.5 / 14
D. White	17	65%	8.5 / 13
J. Tatum	16	44%	8.0 / 18
P. Pritchard	11	79%	5.5 / 7
L. Kornet	8	57%	4.0 / 7
S. Hauser	8	100%	4.0 / 4
N. Queta	8	80%	4.0 / 5
T. Craig	1	17%	0.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 2 119.5	DEN 107.3 BOS 118.3 +11.0
Pace	8 100.6 29 96.6	DEN 101.5 +12.6 BOS 88.9
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 2 15.5	DEN 14.2 −2.0 BOS 16.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 5 56.1%	DEN 54.7% BOS 56.4% +1.7%
TO %	15 13.3% 2 11.7%	DEN 11.6% −1.9% BOS 13.5%
ORB %	7 26.7% 15 25.6%	DEN 18.6% BOS 25.0% +6.4%
FTrt	5 25.9 30 21.2	DEN 15.1 BOS 34.6 +19.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 20 62.8%	DEN 65.9% BOS 70.3% +4.4%
STL %	19 7.9% 26 7.4%	DEN 11.5% +4.0% BOS 7.5%
BLK %	21 9.0% 4 10.5%	DEN 4.5% BOS 7.8% +3.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.02 and 2.02.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 6 57.8%	DEN 53.1% BOS 61.1% +8.0%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 4 67.3%	DEN 62.5% BOS 63.6% +1.1%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 14 43.9%	DEN 51.9% +11.0% BOS 40.9%
3P %	5 37.6% 10 36.8%	DEN 34.3% BOS 41.2% +6.9%
FT %	23 77.0% 6 79.9%	DEN 69.2% BOS 81.5% +12.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 29 26.2%	DEN 27.9% BOS 28.2% +0.3%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 1 20.2%	DEN 31.4% BOS 28.2% −3.2%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 1 53.6%	DEN 40.7% BOS 43.6% +2.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.17 and 3.17.

Game Totals	DEN	BOS
Possessions	96	93
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.1
Points	103	110
Rebounds	38	45
Assists	27	26
Steals	11	7
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	11 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls	18	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (4)	10 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (3)	35 (1)
Field Goals	41-86	37-78
At-the-Rim FG	15-24	14-22
Midrange FG	14-27	9-22
2-Point FG	29-51	23-44
3-Point FG	12-35	14-34
Free Throws	9-13	22-27
Fast Break Pts	10	14
2nd Chance Pts	6	12
Points in Paint	38	44
Pts off Turnovers	15	8
Bench Points	11	28
Biggest Lead	1	20

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg