Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 3, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	29	Wizards	26%	106	90	91.8	98	98.6
	12	Heat	74%	116	106	108.2	98	97.4

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

-13

MIA

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.96 47.9%

MIA

1.14 57.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	35.2	14	47%	5	7	1	0	3	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-7	14%	4-8	50%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SG · 6'7" 195 · 21	33.0	3	21%	3	0	1	0	2	2	1	2	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	32.1	10	36%	8	5	1	0	3	3	0	8	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-8	25%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	25.4	9	35%	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	3	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	1-4	25%
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	22.7	16	80%	3	3	3	0	1	3	0	3	3-4	75%	5-7	71%	1-2	50%

Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	22.4	7	58%	8	1	0	0	0	2	2	6	3-3	100%	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	21.4	8	50%	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	20.2	7	50%	8	2	0	0	0	0	1	7	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	18.5	8	44%	1	1	1	0	3	3	0	1	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	4.3	3	150%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	2.4	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	2.4	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jalen McDaniels #2 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 27
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Hyper-Extension
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	48%	43	22	8	0	13	17	7	36	18-22	82%	21-49	43%	10-35	29%

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29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	35.2	14	47%	5	7	1	0	3	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-7	14%	4-8	50%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SG · 6'7" 195 · 21	33.0	3	21%	3	0	1	0	2	2	1	2	1-2	50%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	32.1	10	36%	8	5	1	0	3	3	0	8	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-8	25%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	25.4	9	35%	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	3	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	1-4	25%
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	22.7	16	80%	3	3	3	0	1	3	0	3	3-4	75%	5-7	71%	1-2	50%

Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	22.4	7	58%	8	1	0	0	0	2	2	6	3-3	100%	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	21.4	8	50%	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	20.2	7	50%	8	2	0	0	0	0	1	7	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	18.5	8	44%	1	1	1	0	3	3	0	1	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	4.3	3	150%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	2.4	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	2.4	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jalen McDaniels #2 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 27
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Hyper-Extension
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	90	48%	43	22	8	0	13	17	7	36	18-22	82%	21-49	43%	10-35	29%

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12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	35.3	15	54%	5	5	1	0	3	2	0	5	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	1-7	14%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	31.2	19	50%	15	5	2	1	2	1	3	12	5-6	83%	7-14	50%	0-2	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SF · 6'5" 214 · 34	26.4	9	64%	3	1	1	0	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	26.1	16	80%	3	6	1	1	3	1	0	3	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	3-5	60%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	12.3	2	25%	9	1	0	0	0	0	1	8	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%

Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	30.3	17	65%	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	4-6	67%	3-7	43%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	27.5	16	62%	4	5	0	0	1	5	1	3	3-5	60%	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	26.1	8	67%	3	2	1	0	0	4	0	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	2-2	100%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 31	24.9	4	50%	3	5	3	2	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Quadriceps; Contusion
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	57%	48	31	10	4	11	19	5	43	15-18	83%	26-45	58%	13-37	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.96 47.9%

MIA

1.14 57.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

50%

MIA

84%

Midrange

WAS

32%

MIA

38%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

15.0

29%

43%

MIA

19.5

35%

53%

Free Throws

WAS

82%

MIA

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Middleton	16	80%	8.0 / 10
B. Carrington	14	47%	7.0 / 15
K. George	10	36%	5.0 / 14
A. Sarr	9	35%	4.5 / 13
C. Kispert	8	50%	4.0 / 8
M. Smart	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Champagnie	7	58%	3.5 / 6
R. Holmes	7	50%	3.5 / 7
B. Coulibaly	3	21%	1.5 / 7
A. Johnson	3	150%	1.5 / 1
T. Vukcevic	3	150%	1.5 / 1
A. Gill	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	19	50%	9.5 / 19
D. Robinson	17	65%	8.5 / 13
T. Herro	16	80%	8.0 / 10
P. Larsson	16	62%	8.0 / 13
T. Rozier	15	54%	7.5 / 14
A. Burks	9	64%	4.5 / 7
H. Highsmith	8	67%	4.0 / 6
K. Anderson	4	50%	2.0 / 4
K. Love	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 105.8 21 112.4	WAS 91.8 MIA 108.2 +16.3
Pace	4 101.8 27 97.2	WAS 98.6 +1.2 MIA 97.4
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 9 14.9	WAS 14.6 −0.2 MIA 14.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 51.2% 19 54.4%	WAS 42.9% MIA 55.5% +12.6%
TO %	27 14.6% 8 12.8%	WAS 12.2% MIA 11.8% −0.4%
ORB %	25 22.7% 27 22.3%	WAS 14.0% +1.8% MIA 12.2%
FTrt	26 22.9 24 23.2	WAS 26.2 +4.2 MIA 22.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 63.7% 10 65.3%	WAS 71.0% MIA 79.5% +8.5%
STL %	25 7.4% 12 8.3%	WAS 8.2% MIA 10.2% +2.0%
BLK %	12 9.6% 30 7.6%	WAS 0.0% MIA 8.2% +8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 53.2% 19 56.0%	WAS 47.9% MIA 57.0% +9.1%
Rim FG%	17 63.7% 22 62.5%	WAS 50.0% MIA 84.2% +34.2%
Mid FG%	30 38.0% 12 44.4%	WAS 31.6% MIA 38.5% +6.9%
3P %	29 33.5% 11 36.7%	WAS 28.6% MIA 35.1% +6.5%
FT %	16 77.8% 8 79.1%	WAS 81.8% MIA 83.3% +1.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.5% 25 29.6%	WAS 35.7% +12.5% MIA 23.2%
Mid Att. %	11 25.9% 20 27.5%	WAS 22.6% −9.1% MIA 31.7%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 12 42.9%	WAS 41.7% MIA 45.1% +3.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	MIA
Possessions	98	98
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	90	106
Rebounds	43	48
Assists	22	31
Steals	8	10
Blocks	0	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	11 (1)
Fouls	17	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (2)	5 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (1)	43 (2)
Field Goals	31-84	39-82
At-the-Rim FG	15-30	16-19
Midrange FG	6-19	10-26
2-Point FG	21-49	26-45
3-Point FG	10-35	13-37
Free Throws	18-22	15-18
Fast Break Pts	14	21
2nd Chance Pts	5	10
Points in Paint	40	46
Pts off Turnovers	16	22
Bench Points	38	45
Biggest Lead	3	26

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg