Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 10, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	30	Wizards	35%	110	104	104.0	100	95.9
	27	Raptors	65%	116	119	121.4	98	102.3

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+21

-8

113

TOR

+34

-8

124

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.92 46.0%

TOR

0.96 48.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	30.4	16	38%	11	2	0	3	0	1	5	6	4-5	80%	3-12	25%	2-7	29%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	27.5	13	72%	3	3	0	5	1	3	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	25.9	5	23%	4	5	1	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-8	13%
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	23.0	16	62%	3	1	1	0	2	3	0	3	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	2-7	29%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	8.4	4	100%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	2-3	67%	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	24.9	15	50%	7	2	1	1	1	5	2	5	1-1	100%	4-7	57%	2-8	25%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	24.1	6	33%	9	2	2	2	2	2	4	5	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	23.3	3	21%	3	6	0	0	0	1	1	2	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	22.3	13	54%	1	2	0	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-8	38%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	13.5	5	83%	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	8.6	5	50%	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	8.1	3	50%	5	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Tendinopathy
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Ankle; Injury Management
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Index Finger; Partial Extensor Hood Tear Injury Management
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	46%	54	25	5	12	8	20	16	38	12-15	80%	22-50	44%	16-55	29%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	30.4	16	38%	11	2	0	3	0	1	5	6	4-5	80%	3-12	25%	2-7	29%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	27.5	13	72%	3	3	0	5	1	3	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	25.9	5	23%	4	5	1	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-8	13%
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	23.0	16	62%	3	1	1	0	2	3	0	3	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	2-7	29%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	8.4	4	100%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	2-3	67%	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	24.9	15	50%	7	2	1	1	1	5	2	5	1-1	100%	4-7	57%	2-8	25%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	24.1	6	33%	9	2	2	2	2	2	4	5	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-2	0%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	23.3	3	21%	3	6	0	0	0	1	1	2	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	22.3	13	54%	1	2	0	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-8	38%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	13.5	5	83%	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	8.6	5	50%	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	8.1	3	50%	5	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Tendinopathy
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Ankle; Injury Management
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Index Finger; Partial Extensor Hood Tear Injury Management
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	46%	54	25	5	12	8	20	16	38	12-15	80%	22-50	44%	16-55	29%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

27 Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Immanuel Quickley #5 · PG · 6'2" 190 · 26	28.2	15	58%	6	6	0	0	1	1	1	5	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	3-9	33%
RJ Barrett #9 · SF · 6'6" 214 · 25	27.2	14	35%	10	8	0	0	2	1	4	6	1-4	25%	5-12	42%	1-6	17%
Orlando Robinson #21 · C · 6'10" 235 · 25	26.2	13	65%	11	4	0	1	1	1	7	4	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
Jared Rhoden #8 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 26	25.9	11	55%	3	0	1	0	0	5	0	3	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	3-8	38%
Scottie Barnes #4 · PF · 6'8" 237 · 24	25.5	14	33%	13	2	0	0	1	0	4	9	2-4	50%	6-17	35%	0-2	0%

A.J. Lawson #0 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 25	33.2	32	62%	12	0	1	0	1	4	3	9	7-11	64%	2-7	29%	7-14	50%
Jamal Shead #23 · PG · 6'1" 200 · 23	26.6	8	44%	4	1	0	1	0	2	3	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Colin Castleton #11 · C · 6'10" 250 · 25	26.6	7	58%	9	3	0	0	2	3	3	6	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Jamison Battle #77 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 24	12.0	5	42%	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Garrett Temple #17 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 39	8.6	0	0%	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Chris Boucher #25 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 29	DND – Rest
Gradey Dick #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Bone Bruise
Jonathan Mogbo #2 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Nasal; Fracture
Ulrich Chomche #22 · PF · 6'11" 235 · 19	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Partial Proximal MCL Tear
Ja'Kobe Walter #14 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Flexor
Brandon Ingram #3 · SF · 6'8" 190 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Ochai Agbaji #30 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	48%	73	26	3	2	8	18	28	45	17-29	59%	27-60	45%	16-49	33%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	TOR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.92 46.0%

TOR

0.96 48.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

47%

TOR

48%

Midrange

WAS

33%

TOR

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

24.0

29%

44%

TOR

24.0

33%

49%

Free Throws

WAS

80%

TOR

59%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	16	38%	8.0 / 21
J. Poole	16	62%	8.0 / 13
T. Vukcevic	15	50%	7.5 / 15
K. George	13	72%	6.5 / 9
C. Kispert	13	54%	6.5 / 12
J. Champagnie	6	33%	3.0 / 9
B. Carrington	5	23%	2.5 / 11
A. Gill	5	83%	2.5 / 3
J. Martin	5	50%	2.5 / 5
B. Coulibaly	4	100%	2.0 / 2
A. Johnson	3	21%	1.5 / 7
J. Thor	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Lawson	32	62%	16.0 / 26
I. Quickley	15	58%	7.5 / 13
R. Barrett	14	35%	7.0 / 20
S. Barnes	14	33%	7.0 / 21
O. Robinson	13	65%	6.5 / 10
J. Rhoden	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Shead	8	44%	4.0 / 9
C. Castleton	7	58%	3.5 / 6
J. Battle	5	42%	2.5 / 6
G. Temple	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 105.8 26 109.5	WAS 104.0 TOR 121.4 +17.4
Pace	4 101.8 9 100.6	WAS 95.9 TOR 102.3 +6.4
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 27 13.8	WAS 15.0 TOR 14.1 −0.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 51.2% 24 52.2%	WAS 43.8% TOR 46.8% +3.0%
TO %	27 14.6% 26 14.5%	WAS 6.7% −0.2% TOR 6.9%
ORB %	25 22.7% 4 27.3%	WAS 26.2% TOR 42.4% +16.2%
FTrt	26 22.9 25 23.2	WAS 14.3 TOR 26.6 +12.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 63.7% 2 68.5%	WAS 65.8% +5.3% TOR 60.5%
STL %	25 7.4% 18 8.0%	WAS 5.0% +1.9% TOR 3.1%
BLK %	12 9.6% 27 8.4%	WAS 20.0% +16.0% TOR 4.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 53.2% 25 53.8%	WAS 46.0% TOR 48.0% +2.0%
Rim FG%	17 63.7% 28 60.2%	WAS 47.4% TOR 47.5% +0.1%
Mid FG%	30 38.0% 21 41.5%	WAS 33.3% TOR 40.0% +6.7%
3P %	29 33.5% 23 34.8%	WAS 29.1% TOR 32.7% +3.6%
FT %	16 77.8% 29 74.8%	WAS 80.0% +21.4% TOR 58.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.5% 3 36.2%	WAS 36.2% TOR 36.7% +0.5%
Mid Att. %	11 25.9% 17 26.5%	WAS 11.4% −6.9% TOR 18.3%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 29 37.3%	WAS 52.4% +7.4% TOR 45.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	TOR
Possessions	100	98
Possession Minutes	25.0	23.0
Points	104	119
Rebounds	54	73
Assists	25	26
Steals	5	3
Blocks	12	2
Turnovers (Team)	8 (0)	8 (1)
Fouls	20	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (5)	28 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (2)	45 (3)
Field Goals	38-105	43-109
At-the-Rim FG	18-38	19-40
Midrange FG	4-12	8-20
2-Point FG	22-50	27-60
3-Point FG	16-55	16-49
Free Throws	12-15	17-29
Fast Break Pts	12	26
2nd Chance Pts	26	33
Points in Paint	44	54
Pts off Turnovers	13	15
Bench Points	50	52
Biggest Lead	4	19

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg