Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 10, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Nuggets	30%	112	140	141.4	99	90.9
	1	Thunder	70%	120	127	128.3	99	108.7

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-12

OKC

+19

-10

108

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.44 72.2%

OKC

1.18 58.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	40.0	34	65%	4	6	2	0	0	3	2	2	9-9	100%	8-15	53%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	39.6	35	80%	18	8	1	1	1	4	2	16	4-5	80%	14-18	78%	1-2	50%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	38.2	17	71%	6	2	1	0	1	1	0	6	0-0	-	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	35.9	14	58%	5	5	0	1	1	1	2	3	4-4	100%	2-6	33%	2-5	40%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	32.7	16	73%	5	7	0	1	2	3	2	3	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	3-5	60%

Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	24.4	16	114%	1	0	0	2	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-4	100%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	17.9	8	100%	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	11.3	0	0%	3	3	1	0	3	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Injury Management/Left Ankle Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	72%	43	32	6	5	12	18	9	34	18-20	90%	34-54	63%	18-32	56%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	40.0	34	65%	4	6	2	0	0	3	2	2	9-9	100%	8-15	53%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	39.6	35	80%	18	8	1	1	1	4	2	16	4-5	80%	14-18	78%	1-2	50%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	38.2	17	71%	6	2	1	0	1	1	0	6	0-0	-	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	35.9	14	58%	5	5	0	1	1	1	2	3	4-4	100%	2-6	33%	2-5	40%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	32.7	16	73%	5	7	0	1	2	3	2	3	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	3-5	60%

Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	24.4	16	114%	1	0	0	2	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-4	100%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	17.9	8	100%	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	11.3	0	0%	3	3	1	0	3	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Injury Management/Left Ankle Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	72%	43	32	6	5	12	18	9	34	18-20	90%	34-54	63%	18-32	56%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	36.2	25	78%	3	7	1	2	3	2	1	2	6-6	100%	5-7	71%	3-7	43%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 26	34.3	26	81%	7	0	4	1	0	3	3	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	8-14	57%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 23	28.9	8	33%	4	1	0	2	1	1	0	4	2-3	67%	3-6	50%	0-5	0%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 27	25.7	20	59%	7	2	0	0	0	4	2	5	4-4	100%	8-15	53%	0-1	0%
Jalen Williams #8 · SF · 6'5" 211 · 24	13.6	12	55%	2	6	0	0	1	0	0	2	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	1-3	33%

Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 21	29.1	12	75%	3	8	3	1	1	1	3	0	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-3	67%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 26	22.0	8	50%	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 31	20.3	13	81%	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	2-4	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	16.2	3	30%	2	3	0	0	1	2	2	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-3	33%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 23	10.3	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 22	1.8	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dillon Jones #3 · SF · 6'5" 235 · 23	1.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Adam Flagler #14 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alex Ducas #88 · SG · 6'7" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	59%	37	29	9	6	10	16	13	24	14-16	88%	28-53	53%	19-47	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.44 72.2%

OKC

1.18 58.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

65%

OKC

76%

Midrange

DEN

61%

OKC

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

27.0

56%

84%

OKC

28.5

40%

61%

Free Throws

DEN

90%

OKC

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	35	80%	17.5 / 22
J. Murray	34	65%	17.0 / 26
M. Porter	17	71%	8.5 / 12
R. Westbrook	16	73%	8.0 / 11
P. Watson	16	114%	8.0 / 7
C. Braun	14	58%	7.0 / 12
J. Pickett	8	100%	4.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dort	26	81%	13.0 / 16
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	25	78%	12.5 / 16
I. Hartenstein	20	59%	10.0 / 17
A. Caruso	13	81%	6.5 / 8
J. Williams	12	55%	6.0 / 11
C. Wallace	12	75%	6.0 / 8
C. Holmgren	8	33%	4.0 / 12
A. Wiggins	8	50%	4.0 / 8
I. Joe	3	30%	1.5 / 5
J. Williams	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 3 119.2	DEN 141.4 +13.1 OKC 128.3
Pace	8 100.6 5 100.9	DEN 90.9 OKC 108.7 +17.8
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 25 13.9	DEN 15.8 OKC 13.2 −2.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 7 56.0%	DEN 70.9% +14.4% OKC 56.5%
TO %	15 13.3% 1 10.9%	DEN 11.2% OKC 9.3% −1.9%
ORB %	7 26.7% 21 24.2%	DEN 27.3% OKC 27.7% +0.4%
FTrt	5 25.9 28 22.0	DEN 23.3 +7.3 OKC 16.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 26 60.2%	DEN 61.5% OKC 61.7% +0.2%
STL %	19 7.9% 1 10.2%	DEN 6.1% OKC 9.1% +3.0%
BLK %	21 9.0% 2 11.9%	DEN 9.4% OKC 11.1% +1.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.52 and 2.52.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 4 57.9%	DEN 72.2% +13.4% OKC 58.8%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 10 65.7%	DEN 65.4% OKC 76.5% +11.1%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 7 45.7%	DEN 60.7% +19.0% OKC 41.7%
3P %	5 37.6% 6 37.4%	DEN 56.3% +15.9% OKC 40.4%
FT %	23 77.0% 1 81.9%	DEN 90.0% +2.5% OKC 87.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 26 29.5%	DEN 30.2% +13.2% OKC 17.0%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 25 28.6%	DEN 32.6% −3.4% OKC 36.0%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 16 41.9%	DEN 37.2% OKC 47.0% +9.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	OKC
Possessions	99	99
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	140	127
Rebounds	43	37
Assists	32	29
Steals	6	9
Blocks	5	6
Turnovers (Team)	12 (0)	10 (1)
Fouls	18	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (1)	13 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (1)	24 (0)
Field Goals	52-86	47-100
At-the-Rim FG	17-26	13-17
Midrange FG	17-28	15-36
2-Point FG	34-54	28-53
3-Point FG	18-32	19-47
Free Throws	18-20	14-16
Fast Break Pts	18	7
2nd Chance Pts	8	22
Points in Paint	48	44
Pts off Turnovers	16	14
Bench Points	24	36
Biggest Lead	16	12

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg