Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, March 15, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	26	Wizards	19%	113	126	121.2	104	97.0
	5	Nuggets	81%	126	123	116.0	106	114.2

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+16

-17

103

DEN

+16

-17

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.22 61.2%

DEN

1.17 58.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

26 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kyshawn George #18 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	40.0	19	73%	7	5	3	1	2	4	1	6	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	4-8	50%
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 24	39.1	16	73%	13	2	2	0	1	1	3	10	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	2-5	40%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	31.7	34	57%	6	5	1	1	2	4	4	2	5-5	100%	7-19	37%	5-9	56%
Jordan Poole #13 · PG · 6'4" 194 · 26	30.3	19	79%	0	6	1	1	6	1	0	0	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	4-7	57%
Khris Middleton #32 · SG · 6'7" 222 · 34	19.9	10	50%	4	4	1	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-6	33%

Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	30.0	9	38%	4	7	0	0	4	2	0	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-6	17%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	17.8	9	90%	2	4	2	0	1	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	16.3	6	60%	6	0	1	1	1	2	4	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	15.0	4	40%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Non-Covid Illness
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	61%	44	34	11	4	17	17	13	31	15-17	88%	27-50	54%	19-45	42%

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26 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Kyshawn George #18 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	40.0	19	73%	7	5	3	1	2	4	1	6	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	4-8	50%
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 24	39.1	16	73%	13	2	2	0	1	1	3	10	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	2-5	40%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	31.7	34	57%	6	5	1	1	2	4	4	2	5-5	100%	7-19	37%	5-9	56%
Jordan Poole #13 · PG · 6'4" 194 · 26	30.3	19	79%	0	6	1	1	6	1	0	0	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	4-7	57%
Khris Middleton #32 · SG · 6'7" 222 · 34	19.9	10	50%	4	4	1	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-6	33%

Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	30.0	9	38%	4	7	0	0	4	2	0	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-6	17%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	17.8	9	90%	2	4	2	0	1	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	16.3	6	60%	6	0	1	1	1	2	4	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	15.0	4	40%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Non-Covid Illness
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	61%	44	34	11	4	17	17	13	31	15-17	88%	27-50	54%	19-45	42%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	39.2	40	63%	13	9	1	2	3	3	3	10	7-7	100%	15-22	68%	1-8	13%
Russell Westbrook #4 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 36	37.0	22	58%	4	11	1	0	3	2	0	4	0-0	-	5-11	45%	4-8	50%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · PF · 6'10" 218 · 27	36.9	20	56%	11	1	1	1	0	4	2	9	3-4	75%	4-10	40%	3-6	50%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	36.5	24	75%	6	7	4	0	3	2	3	3	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	3-8	38%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	34.9	9	113%	3	4	3	0	3	0	1	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-1	100%

Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	22.8	2	33%	3	3	1	2	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	20.7	6	50%	1	2	1	3	2	4	0	1	2-3	67%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	9.4	0	0%	1	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	2.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Injury Management/Left Ankle Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	59%	42	40	12	8	17	20	10	32	15-17	88%	36-61	59%	12-34	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.22 61.2%

DEN

1.17 58.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

64%

DEN

63%

Midrange

WAS

35%

DEN

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

28.5

42%

63%

DEN

18.0

35%

53%

Free Throws

WAS

88%

DEN

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	34	57%	17.0 / 30
K. George	19	73%	9.5 / 13
J. Poole	19	79%	9.5 / 12
J. Champagnie	16	73%	8.0 / 11
K. Middleton	10	50%	5.0 / 10
B. Carrington	9	38%	4.5 / 12
A. Johnson	9	90%	4.5 / 5
R. Holmes	6	60%	3.0 / 5
C. Kispert	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	40	63%	20.0 / 32
J. Murray	24	75%	12.0 / 16
R. Westbrook	22	58%	11.0 / 19
M. Porter	20	56%	10.0 / 18
C. Braun	9	113%	4.5 / 4
Z. Nnaji	6	50%	3.0 / 6
P. Watson	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Pickett	0	-	0.0 / 1
V. Cancar	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 105.8 4 118.9	WAS 121.2 +5.1 DEN 116.0
Pace	4 101.8 8 100.6	WAS 97.0 DEN 114.2 +17.2
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 22 14.2	WAS 14.8 DEN 12.6 −2.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 51.2% 2 57.3%	WAS 58.4% +1.6% DEN 56.8%
TO %	27 14.6% 15 13.3%	WAS 14.2% −0.7% DEN 14.9%
ORB %	25 22.7% 7 26.7%	WAS 28.9% +4.5% DEN 24.4%
FTrt	26 22.9 5 25.9	WAS 17.9 DEN 17.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 63.7% 4 68.3%	WAS 73.9% DEN 83.3% +9.4%
STL %	25 7.4% 19 7.9%	WAS 10.6% DEN 11.3% +0.7%
BLK %	12 9.6% 21 9.0%	WAS 6.6% DEN 16.0% +9.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 53.2% 2 58.8%	WAS 61.2% +2.6% DEN 58.6%
Rim FG%	17 63.7% 7 66.2%	WAS 63.6% +0.4% DEN 63.2%
Mid FG%	30 38.0% 8 45.5%	WAS 35.3% DEN 52.2% +16.9%
3P %	29 33.5% 5 37.6%	WAS 42.2% +6.9% DEN 35.3%
FT %	16 77.8% 23 77.0%	WAS 88.2% DEN 88.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.5% 1 38.3%	WAS 34.7% DEN 40.0% +5.3%
Mid Att. %	11 25.9% 13 26.1%	WAS 17.9% −6.3% DEN 24.2%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 30 35.6%	WAS 47.4% +11.6% DEN 35.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	WAS	DEN
Possessions	104	106
Possession Minutes	25.7	22.3
Points	126	123
Rebounds	44	42
Assists	34	40
Steals	11	12
Blocks	4	8
Turnovers (Team)	17 (0)	17 (1)
Fouls	17	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (3)	10 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (2)	32 (2)
Field Goals	46-95	48-95
At-the-Rim FG	21-33	24-38
Midrange FG	6-17	12-23
2-Point FG	27-50	36-61
3-Point FG	19-45	12-34
Free Throws	15-17	15-17
Fast Break Pts	18	17
2nd Chance Pts	18	16
Points in Paint	46	58
Pts off Turnovers	21	20
Bench Points	28	8
Biggest Lead	3	16

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg